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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following a slow MLB Monday, we’ll switch gears to a busy Tuesday slate! Originally, we had an 11-game main slate lined up for today; however, at the time of this writing, one game has already been postponed (KC @ STL) due to bad weather stemming from the leftovers of Hurricane Beryl. Some ugly forecasts also threaten to knock one or two more games off the docket so make sure to stay alert by monitoring those problematic areas -- further details can be found in the weather section below. However things shake out, we’ll still have a substantial slate ahead of us so let’s get it rolling! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• OAK @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10.5 O/U): Low-end chance for a delay as there is a bit of rain in the forecast, but nothing overly threatening. Temps in the mid-80s with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Excellent conditions for hitters so it’s no surprise to see this game being pinned with the highest total on the slate.

• COL @ CIN (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Trouble spot #1. The outer remnants of the same large storm system that led to an early PPD announcement in St. Louis will threaten this game with problems as well. Perhaps they’ll get lucky enough to find a 2.5-3 hour window where they can squeeze this game in but, as of now, there is some legitimate PPD concern here. Double-check the latest forecast before locking any players into lineups.

• WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Chance for some light rain, but nothing too worrisome. 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

• KC @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): It’s been pouring, and will continue to pour in STL throughout the evening so, as mentioned, this game got the early PPD treatment.

• MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Trouble spot #2. Once again, the leftovers from Beryl, which is still a significant storm system, are heading toward Chicago. They may not receive the worst of it, but there is still plenty of rain that will make its way into the area. This is likely to be another PPD.

• TEX @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.3k | @ LAA

We should fully expect for Chris Sale (DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.5k) to be a popular spend-up choice today, even in a fairly tricky match-up against a D-Backs team that hits lefty pitching well. Looking elsewhere, a somewhat discounted Max Scherzer is also an intriguing high-end SP option. Scherzer made his season debut a little over two weeks ago and, after throwing 90 pitches in his most recent outing, he should be operating with minimal-to-no workload restrictions moving forward. His high strikeout upside has yet to materialize as he has posted an underwhelming 17.7% kRate through his 16.2 IP. However, his 10.7% SwStr% indicates that his kRate should be closer to around 21%. We also have to take into account the competition he has faced. The Royals, Orioles, and Padres account for three of the six lowest kRate teams against RHPs this season. Overall, Scherzer has supplied a 2.70 ERA, 2.80 xERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 4.8% BB% thus far.

By all accounts, the Angels should provide Scherzer with his most favorable match-up to date this season. While they haven’t been an extremely strikeout-prone offense, their 22.9% kRate vs. RHPs is notably higher than the three other previously mentioned offenses that he has gone up against. The Angels have also been a below-average offense versus RHPs L2Weeks based on their 97 wRC+ in that span. Also, while it’s not an extreme sample size, in 38 PA versus the current Angels roster, Scherzer owns a .145 opp xBA, .186 opp xwOBA, and a monstrous 47.4% kRate. He undoubtedly has a little bit of rust still to shake off, especially as he tries to work back to his big strikeout potential, but this could easily be his best outing up to this point in the season. The Rangers are also hefty -178 ML favorites this evening and the Texas bats have really started to come around recently, so Scherzer should receive ample run support and put himself in line for the win.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ATL

It’s no secret that Gallen is one of those pitchers who just performs noticeably better at home, so he deserves some consideration today while being pinned with some fair DFS salaries. Here is a quick rundown of Gallen’s home/road splits from this season:

Home: 36.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, .202 opp AVG, .253 opp wOBA, 0.95 WHIP, 27.3% kRate.

Road: 31.0 IP, 4.65 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, .248 opp AVG, .312 opp wOBA, 1.29 WHIP, 25.0% kRate.

He has averaged 23.2 DKFP/41.2 FDFP in six home games versus 12.5 DKFP/23.4 FDFP in seven road games. Gallen did miss nearly a month of action due to a hamstring injury, but this will be his third start since returning and, after throwing 85 pitches in his most recent outing, we shouldn’t expect any sizable workload restrictions.

The Braves have intermittedly shown some signs of life at the plate but they’ve still been a bottom-10 offense against RHPs L2Weeks. In that span, they rank 21st or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at a 26.9% clip (3rd highest). Gallen won’t have an easy pathway to a win, since Chris Sale will be operating as his counterpart. But this is likely to turn into a pitcher’s duel and Gallen has a realistic chance of producing a ceiling game in this spot.

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. TOR

If you’re feeling frisky today, it could be worth the roll of the dice on Blake Snell, who will be returning from his second IL stint of the season tonight. Things have not gone well for Snell this season, to say the least, but based on the injuries he has dealt with, it wouldn’t be a major leap to assume he has yet to pitch at 100% in 2024. Across his six MLB starts this year, he has been battered to a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. However, the fact this his 4.17 xFIP is more than five runs lower than his ERA tells us he has also been the victim of some substantially bad luck. The kRate, while still not as high as we’re used to seeing out of Snell, has still been solid at 26.1%. But what’s most encouraging is how good Snell looked in his most recent rehab start where he went 5.0 IP on 67 pitches, allowing no hits, one walk, and struck out nine would-be hitters. He’s very clearly going to face some limitations in his first start back (again) but that presumption is already baked into his < $8,000 DFS salaries on both sites.

Toronto has been a pretty consistently average offense throughout the season but they’ve mostly had a reluctance to strike out. However, over the last two weeks, their kRate has climbed to 24.3% (9th highest). They hit LHPs better than RHPs but they’re still not a top offense either way. When Snell is fully healthy, he’s in the mix as the best starting pitcher in baseball and he certainly looked healthy in that last rehab start. It’s a fairly big risk but Snell won’t draw significant ownership on this slate and he’s capable of returning strong value on these salaries even while operating with some restrictions.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.5k | @ ARI

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k | vs. COL (Monitor weather)

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox (LHBs Preferred) vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

+ Red Sox: 5.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ The Red Sox have been a top-10 offense versus RHPs over the last month: .268 AVG (7th), .779 OPS (4th), .337 wOBA (5th), .180 ISO (8th), and 113 wRC+ (10th).

+ Estes has had some strong starts this season, including a CGSO of the Angels last Wednesday, but he has struggled on the road. In six away games (27.0 IP), Estes has emerged with a 7.00 ERA, .282 opp AVG, .397 opp wOBA, 1.56 WHIP, and 2.00 HR/9 Rate.

+ Estes has extreme traditional splits, so he has been much worse against LHBs, and Boston has plenty of lefty bats to throw at him -- six in their confirmed lineup today. Estes vs. LHBs when pitching on the road: 5.77 xFIP, .333 opp AVG, .495 opp wOBA, 2.34 WHIP, 52.8% HardContact%, and 3.38 HR/9 Rate.

+ The A’s bullpen owns an MLB-worst 4.96 xFIP over the last month.

+ There will be some great hitting conditions at Fenway Park this evening. Warm temps in the 80s with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left toward the Green Monster.

- The Red Sox are almost certainly going to be the most popular stack on the slate.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, David Hamilton

Bargain Bat: Mastaka Yoshida

Texas Rangers vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), LAA

+ Rangers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ Following a nine-run performance last night, the Rangers offense is continuing to play in a nice groove. Over their last nine games, dating back to June 29th, Texas has posted a .304 AVG, .892 OPS, .383 wOBA, .225 ISO, and 148 wRC+. They’re also hitting for an MLB-best .368 AVG with runners in scoring position during that stretch.

+ Contreras is a former starter but has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this season. He’ll be making his third consecutive start but likely won’t pitch deep into the game. He has been far from good this season, pitching to a 4.04 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 4.97 xFIP, and 1.46 WHIP. And that’s after mostly coming into games in advantageous spots out of the bullpen.

+ Contreras has allowed a 92.4 mph average exit velo L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Angels’ bullpen has a 4.75 xFIP L30Days -- 2nd worst in MLB.

+ Angel Stadium has ranked as the #7 most hitter-friendly park.

- If we’re looking at a larger sample size, the Rangers have been a very average offense with a 101 wRC+ over the last month (ranks 18th) and two of their top-of-the-lineup hitters, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, have struggled in that stretch.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Nathaniel Lowe

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

+ Every Mets hitter in the confirmed lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Mets: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 7th on the slate).

+ The Mets were the hottest offense in baseball during a stretch in late June. They’ve since cooled off quite a bit, however, they’ve still been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks based on their 112 wRC+ (ranks 9th).

+ Jake Irvin is having a breakout season but based on his 3.61 xFIP against his 2.80 ERA, he is due for some regression.

+ Since the start of June, the Mets rank 4th with a .368 xwOBA & 48.8% HardHit% versus RHP four-seamers, curveballs, and sinkers (Irvin’s three primary pitches).

-/+ Citi Field is the #5 least hitter-friendly ballpark but some 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left will help well-struck flyballs carry a bit further.

- As mentioned, Irvin has been really solid this season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 18 starts. He’s also been even better on the road where he’s averaging +42.3% more FPPG.

- Small sample size but in 45 PA versus the current Mets roster, Irvin has held them to a meager .119 AVG and .138 wOBA to go along with a strong 33.3% kRate.

Favorite NYM Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso

Bargain Bat: Harrison Bader

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Josh Fleming (LHP), PIT

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), LAA

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

3B Jose Miranda, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), LAA

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), LAA

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), LAA

1B Juan Yepez, WAS | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B/SS Rece Hinds, CIN | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Rafael Devers MORE than 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Cal Raleigh MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!