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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s going to be a pretty quiet MLB Monday but we’ll still have a nice little five-game slate to dive into. Keep in mind that this slate will get underway a bit earlier than usual at 6:40 ET. As far as small slates go, this one looks like a fun one and there will be plenty of different ways we can go about attacking it. This is the final full week of MLB action before the All-Star Break comes around next Monday so let’s get some nice profit in the books before the brief hiatus! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CLE @ DET (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Warm temps in the 80s with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

• MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A bit of rain could be moving through the Southside this evening but it’s not expected to hang around for an extreme amount of time. So a late start or in-game delay is a possibility, with the latter outcome placing more risk on starting pitchers. Either way, the bats look fine since this game should have no major problems playing the full nine innings.

• TEX @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k | vs. COL

There is only one true ace on this slate -- LHP Chris Sale (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k). Despite the somewhat difficult match-up against the D-Backs, who hit lefties better than righties, Sale is going to be tough to ignore on this small slate considering he is the overwhelming favorite to lead all SPs in DFS scoring today. But everyone knows Sale is a stud who has been nearly match-up proof this season, so we’ll begin the pitching section by placing the spotlight elsewhere.

Update: Chris Sale’s start has been pushed back to tomorrow.

We haven’t seen as many ceiling games out of Andrew Abbott compared to his 2023 rookie season, and that’s in large part due to a steep decline in his kRate, which has gone from 26.1% last year, to 18.5% this season. However, while Abbott’s kRate has declined, he has improved his ERA, WHIP, opp AVG, and BB% when compared to his 2023 season. Abbott has also shown an improved strikeout rate when pitching at home, where he has been closer to a league average 21.5% kRate (vs. a 16.5% kRate on the road). Home runs have been a bit of an issue for him this season, but he has held opposing hitters to a low .203 AVG over his last nine starts and he has surrendered more than three earned runs in just one start during that span.

To no one’s surprise, the key draw for Abbott will be his match-up with the “road Rockies” who are fresh off of a seven-game home stand at Coors Field, with no off day in between. Like any team that visits Coors Field, the Rockies are also not immune to the “Coors hangover” as they will sometimes need time to adjust to a more normal hitting environment. Great American Ballpark can be a launch pad in its own right, but it has surprisingly rated out as more of a neutral hitting environment this season, ranking 17th in Park Factor. If we look at the Rockies splits versus LHPs when playing on the road since the start of June, we’ll find that they’ve posted a massive 30.8% kRate. They have been an above-average offense during that span, but not by much based on their 108 wRC+. All-in-all, this should be a strong spot for Abbott to rack up a decent strikeout total and the Reds will also step in as heavy -168 ML favorites. If you’re pivoting away from the Sale chalk, Abbott makes some solid sense today.

Yilber Diaz (RHP), ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ATL

Another way to pivot away from a highly-owned Chris Sale is to take a gamble on his counterpart, Yilber Diaz, who is set to make his MLB debut this evening. Diaz has been posting some quality results down in the minor leagues and he’s the D-Backs No. 6 overall prospect (via FanGraphs). In 11 starts and 54.0 IP at the Double-A level this year, Diaz put up an excellent 34.2% kRate to go alongside a 4.33 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, and .195 opp AVG. Diaz was then promoted to Triple-A, where he started four games (22.0 IP) and procured a 30.8% kRate, 3.27 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, and .220 opp AVG. What we’re mainly interested in is the strikeout potential, and Diaz has plenty of it.

Diaz may not be receiving the friendliest of match-ups in his big league debut, but the Braves are far from the offensive juggernaut they’ve been in seasons past. Against RHPs over the last month, Atlanta’s 26.6% kRate is the third-highest in MLB, their .669 OPS ranks 24th, and their 87 wRC+ checks in at 26th. It’s always risky rolling with a guy who is making his first career MLB start, but the strikeout upside alone is worth giving Diaz a shot at these price points.

 Keider Montero (RHP), DET | DK: $4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CLE

I won’t spend too much time here as this is generally a “DraftKings SP2 Only” play. For whatever reason, DraftKings kept Montero’s salary at a flat $4,000 -- the same price they place on relievers. Montero isn’t particularly good, but he did have a strong showing against a solid Twins offense last Friday when he gave up just two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out four across 6.1 IP (80 pitches). It was far from an ace-caliber performance, but it did net Montero 16.9 DKFP. On DK, 48 hitters are more expensive than Montero on this slate, so if he can even approach double-digit DKFP, then he’ll likely end the night as the best value at the position. Across his three MLB outings, Montero has posted a solid 22.7% kRate and an even better 13.0% SwStr%, so he does have the ability to generate some swing-and-miss.

Montero’s match-up with the Guardians isn’t a cakewalk, but it’s arguably much easier than the Twins team he faced last week. Cleveland’s offense has cooled down as of late and, against RHPs L2Weeks, they own a very average 104 wRC+ (ranks 15th) and their kRate has climbed closer to league average at 21.7%, which is worth noting since Cleveland’s 18.8% kRate vs. RHPs this entire season is the second-lowest in MLB. We’re keeping expectations low for Montero here but slotting in a $4k pitcher as your SP2 opens up a ton of lineup flexibility.

 Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k | @ ARI

Note: Sale’s start has been pushed back to Tuesday.

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7k, FD: $7.3k | @ LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Minnesota Twins vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

+ Twins: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Twins lead the MLB in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.

+ When they’ve had RISP L2Weeks, the Twins are hitting for a .327 AVG with a .958 OPS and 161 wRC+.

+ Flexen continues to be a very low-end MLB starter. Across his 16 starts, he owns an underwhelming 5.08 ERA, 5.04 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 17.2% kRate.

+ In 87 PA vs. Flexen, the current Twins roster owns a .273 AVG, .353 wOBA, 12.6% kRate, and 10.3% BB%.

- The White Sox bullpen has pitched fairly well over the previous month: 3.91 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, .215 opp AVG, and 27.2% kRate.

- Guaranteed Rate Field has been the 3rd least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- This is likely to be a highly-owned stack with seven Twins hitters having at least a 12% pOwn%.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda

Bargain Bat: Brooks Lee

Texas Rangers vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

+ Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ The Rangers’ offense is rounding back into form. It’s a short sample size, but over their previous eight games, they’ve posted a .302 AVG, .892 OPS, .383 wOBA, .227 ISO, and 148 wRC+ -- ranking 3rd or better in MLB across all metrics during that span.

+ Davis Daniel, who owned a 5.33 ERA across 14 Triple-A starts this year, far exceeded expectations in his season debut, pitching eight scoreless innings against the Tigers, but he came back to earth against a not-so-great Oakland A’s team in his second start, allowing five runs (four earned) across 5.1 IP on seven hits (two HRs) and a walk.

+ The Angels bullpen owns a 4.68 xFIP L30Days -- 3rd worst in MLB.

+ Angel Stadium has ranked as the #7 most hitter-friendly park.

- On the season, the Rangers have not matched up well against Daniel’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer, changeup, and slider -- their .293 wOBA against that pitch mix ranks 25th.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford

Bargain Bat: Nathaniel Lowe

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

+ Every hitter in the White Sox lineup has a ≤ 7% pOwn%.

+ Paddack has been awful on the road this season where, across 31.0 IP, he has posted a 7.84 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .308 opp AVG, .355 opp wOBA, and 15.6% kRate while averaging -43.5% less FPPG.

+ There are plenty of red (bad) figures in Paddack’s statcast data from the last month; notably: 40.0% LineDrive%, 40.0% HardContact%, 90.9 mph average exit velo (bottom 15th percentile), and 191.9 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 20%).

+ The White Sox offense, while not good, has been mostly competent recently. Their 95 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks is not far off from league average.

+ Every CWS hitter ranges from “affordable” to “dirt cheap”.

- The White Sox are excluding their best power bat, Luis Robert Jr., from the lineup today (not injury-related, from what I can tell, but he is going to be a hot commodity at the trade deadline. Perhaps Chicago is just taking precautions by sitting him today).

- The Twins have a quality bullpen that has a .212 opp AVG and 1.15 WHIP L30Days.

- It’s still the White Sox.

Favorite CWS Bats: Tommy Pham, Andrew Vaughn, Paul DeJong

Bargain Bat: Lenyn Sosa

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Yilber Diaz (RHP), ARI

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Tommy Pham, CWS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yilber Diaz (RHP), ARI

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

2B Colt Keith, DET | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

3B Brooks Lee, MIN | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Angel Martinez, CLE | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

3B Lenyn Sosa, CWS | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Keider Montero MORE than 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

Jose Miranda MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!