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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Hopefully no one partied too hard during your 4th of July festivities yesterday because we’ve got a hefty 12-game main slate to dig into! I could see this one being a bit of a lower-scoring slate due to the amount of quality arms that will be on the mound. That seems to be the consensus with the sportsbooks as well since there are only two games with a 9+ run over/under -- one being the Coors Field match-up. Nonetheless, several offenses will undoubtedly exceed expectations so we’ll see if we can fit all the right pieces to the puzzle together! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BOS @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some scattered showers/storms will be moving through the general vicinity in New York this evening. None of the storms are expected to bring heavy rain so we’ll pin this game with a chance for a late start/delay.

• DET @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): There’s a bit of rain around Cincy this evening. More than likely, they’ll avoid trouble altogether but, if something happens to roll over the ballpark, there’s potential it could spark a delay. 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

• SF @ CLE (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): A late start may be needed here as some rain could be in the process of clearing around the scheduled first pitch. Currently, there are no further issues expected once they get going (which could very well be on time as scheduled).

• PHI @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): A line of storms is approaching ATL this afternoon but should be cleared, or clearing, around first pitch. As long as nothing else fires up behind that stormline, things should be mostly fine here outside of a possible late start. However, it will be worth double-checking this forecast closer to first pitch. Temps in the upper-80s with light winds blowing IN from right.

• HOU @ MIN (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-end chance of a late start.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SF

Bibee has been about as steady as any pitcher in baseball over the last couple of months. Spanning his previous nine starts (53.0 IP) dating back to May 13th, Bibee has procured an impressive 2.38 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, .194 opp AVG, and 31.3% kRate. He has racked up at least seven Ks in six of those nine starts, and he even had a couple of double-digit strikeout performances (11 K vs. CIN, 12 K vs. SEA). Bibee’s four-seam fastball has not been great, as opponents have posted a .324 AVG/.402 wOBA against it, but the rest of his arsenal has been elite. Opponents have a < .190 AVG against Bibee’s slider, changeup, and curveball. He ranks in the 98th percentile in both breaking ball run value and offspeed pitch run value.

The Giants continue to operate as a very average offense and their 99 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks reflects that. There are Ks to be had from this team as seven of the nine hitters in the projected lineup own between a 20.0% and 28.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season. Also, if we look at San Fran’s splits versus RHP sliders, changeups, and curveballs, we’ll find that they have a combined 26.0% kRate against that pitch mix. As long as he limits the damage done on his fastball, Bibee looks to be in line for another quality outing. The Guardians (-179 ML) also step in as heavy home favorites so we’ll like Bibee’s chances of snagging the win bonus as well.

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ SEA

Gausman continues to display some oddly extreme home/road splits -- he’s been dreadful at home, for whatever reason, but extremely solid on the road. Here’s a quick rundown of his splits this season:

Home: 46.1 IP, 7.19 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, .318 opp AVG, 21.7% kRate, 1.75 HR/9 Rate.

Away: 44.2 IP, 2.22 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .201 opp AVG, 24.9% kRate, 1.01 HR/9 Rate.

The sample sizes are nearly identical but the results certainly are not. It isn’t as if the Rogers Centre is a hitter’s haven -- if anything, it’s a slightly pitcher-friendly ballpark. But whatever it is that’s been plaguing Gausman at home has yet to get him into major trouble when he’s traveled to other ballparks.

Picking on the strikeout-happy Mariners is nothing revolutionary. They continue to lead MLB in strikeouts, by a wide margin, and against RHPs L2Weeks, their kRate is up to 32.6%. They’re also hitting for an MLB-worst .191 AVG in that same span to go along with a paltry .594 OPS and 75 wRC+. T-Mobile Park still checks in as the #1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark, based on Park Factor, and until proven otherwise, we’ll put some trust in Gausman’s ability any time he’s NOT pitching in Toronto.

Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DET

There are a couple of intriguing value arms on this slate but we’ll give the spotlight to Spiers, who is particularly appealing as an SP2 target on DraftKings at $6,700. After beginning his 2024 campaign as a multi-inning reliever, Spiers has transitioned into a traditional starter and it seems as if he’s settling into the role nicely. Over his last four games (the previous three being starts), Spiers has procured a commendable 3.04 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 21.6% kRate across 23.2 IP. He also surrendered just one home run in that stretch while allowing a low 29.6% HardContact%.

The match-up with the generally anemic Tigers offense will be the key draw for Spiers. Detroit ranks 26th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks and they’ve struck out at an above-average clip. Spiers has a five-pitch arsenal but he primarily throws a fastball most of the time, whether it be his four-seamer, his sinker, or his cutter. That should play well against a Tigers offense that owns the 6th lowest wOBA against RHP fastballs this season, along with the 9th highest Whiff Rate. We’ve yet to see a huge ceiling out of Spiers, but there is a fairly solid chance that he can post his best all-around performance to date this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k | vs. MIL

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PHI

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k | @ ATL

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.4k | @ COL

Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | @ MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

+ Padres: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams).

+ The Padres have been a top-five offense versus RHPs over the last month but they’ve taken it up a notch at home. Versus RHPs L30Days at home (346 PA), the Padres have posted a .304 AVG, .928 OPS, .396 wOBA, .259 ISO, 14.2% kRate, 18.8% HR/FB Rate, and 169 wRC+.

+ Over his last ten games (45.1 IP), Cecconi has pitched to an ugly 6.75 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, .306 opp AVG, .383 opp wOBA, 1.46 WHIP, 18.7% kRate, and 2.20 HR/9 Rate.

+ The D-Backs have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.61 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, and 1.59 HR/9 Rate. They’ve also thrown an MLB-high 19.0 IP over the last three days so they may be a little over-taxed heading into tonight’s game. Cecconi also isn’t a guy who often pitches deep into games.

+ I’m not seeing much ownership on this stack with every Padres hitter in the projected lineup having a ≤ 5% pOwn%.

- Cecconi has been better on the road (+60.9% more FPPG).

- The Padres are still without star hitter Fernando Tatis Jr. (quadriceps/IL).

Favorite SD Bats: Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar

Bargain Bat: Kyle Higashioka/Donovan Solano

Cleveland Guardians vs. Giants Bullpen (LHP Erik Miller, Opening Pitcher)

+ Guardians: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Bullpen games can be tricky as they can keep opposing hitters off-balance, but in the last four games where the Giants started Erik Miller as the opener in a BP game, they went on to allow an average of 7.5 runs/gm.

+ The Guardians have been the #2 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.21 runs/gm.

+ Progressive Field has ranked as the #7 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Guardians have posted a 131 wRC+ at home over the last month.

+ Looks like this could be another fairly low-owned stack. Every hitter in the Guardians lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

- The Giants bullpen owns a 3.51 xFIP L30Days (4th best in MLB).

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan

Bargain Bat: Angel Martinez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

+ Every hitter in the projected Astros lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Lopez comes in off of a pair of excellent outings, but he had soft match-ups (@ OAK, @ SEA) and has had an otherwise tumultuous season, leading to a 4.88 ERA across 17 starts.

+ There are several red (bad) figures in Lopez’s statcast data from the last month. Notably, 193.4 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 15th percentile), seven barreled balls (bottom 20%), 26.9% LineDrive%, and 14.9% SoftContact%.

+ The Astros have been the best all-around offense versus RHPs L2Weeks: .290 AVG (1st), .831 OPS (1st), .358 wOBA (1st), 135 wRC+ (1st), and 16.4% kRate (3rd lowest).

- The Twins have had an above-average bullpen L2Weeks: 3.54 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, and .206 opp AVG.

- It’s not a huge sample size, but Lopez has held the current Astros roster to a middling .250 AVG and .256 wOBA across 57 PA.

- The Astros have been noticeably less effective on the road where they’ve averaged 4.32 runs/gm (vs. 5.14 runs/gm at home).

- Astros: 3.6 implied runs (ranks 4th lowest on the slate).

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Jon Singleton

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.8k  | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Giants Bullpen

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Shawn Dubin (RHP), HOU

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Randy Arozarena, TB | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

2B/3B Nick Loftin, KC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Jose Miranda, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Shawn Dubin (RHP), HOU

OF/SS Ceddane Rafaela, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS

C Kyle Higashioka, SD | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

1B Ben Rice, NYY | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

3B Angel Martinez, CLE | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Giants Bullpen

3B Brooks Lee, MIN | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Shawn Dubin (RHP), HOU

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Yordan Alvarez MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Corey Seager MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!