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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The dust has settled on a busy, albeit not-overly-dramatic, trade deadline and another split-slate Wednesday rolls around. With most games getting underway in the early window, we’ll be left with a modest five-game main slate to close out the month of July! A troubling forecast in Cincinnati will threaten to slim this slate down to just four games, so make sure you’re keeping an eye on that game (CHC @ CIN). This could be a tricky little slate so let’s lock in and see if we can crack the code! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CHC @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): As alluded to in the intro, this will be the one game to monitor on this small slate. Some ugly thunderstorms look to roll through the general area around first pitch and could linger for most/all of the evening. It’s tough to say how things are going to shake out at this time, so circle back closer to gametime and see how the forecast is looking. There is some definite PPD concern here.

• COL @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11k | vs. LAD

The vibes are high in San Diego lately and it’ll be interesting to see where Cease’s ownership checks in as he takes on the often-feared Dodgers lineup. Cease is on a tear, coming off of a no-hitter against Washington in his last start, and, over his previous four games, he has procured a dazzling 0.93 ERA, 2.50 xFIP, 0.52 WHIP, .078 opp AVG, and 38.8% kRate. Those sorts of results signify the definition of being “locked in” on the mound.

If you’re a regular reader of these newsletters, you’ll know that we haven’t been shying away from using quality lefty starters against the Dodgers lately, as they have struggled against southpaw pitching for a hot minute now. However, the Dodgers remain a top offense against RHPs, posting a .350 wOBA and 130 wRC+ against righties since the return from the All-Star Break. That being said, their 27.2% kRate against RHPs in that same stretch is the second-highest in MLB. They’ve also been less effective in general on the road against RHPs L2Weeks, posting a subpar 94 wRC+ and a massive 34.2% kRate. Across 75 PA against the current Dodgers roster, Cease has gotten the better of them, holding them to a modest .224 AVG and .310 wOBA, while posting a solid 24.0% kRate. Petco Park will be rocking tonight coming off of their walk-off comeback win against the division rival Dodgers in the series opener last night, pushing the Padres to an 8-1 record over their last nine games. We’ll test the power of momentum and trust Cease to continue his dominant stretch tonight.

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. PIT

Valdez heads into today’s start with some quality short-term form having posted a pair of ceiling games against the Dodgers (34.7 DKFP/58 FDFP) and Marlins (33.6 DKFP/59 FDFP) over his last three starts while falling an out short of recording a quality start against the Mariners. Valdez has been a bit more reliable of a DFS investment at home where he owns a 3.00 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 24.2% kRate across nine starts this season; compare that to his road splits: 3.88 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, and 19.1% kRate over nine away starts.

The Pirates have quietly been a top-10 offense against LHPs over the last month, ranking 8th in OPS (.802), wOBA (.349), and wRC+ (125). However, their 47.8% GroundBall% against lefties in that same span is the 6th highest mark in MLB. That plays well into Valdez’s strength as a groundball pitcher -- he leads all qualified MLB starters with a 59.9% GB% this year. To top it off, the Astros (-218 ML) are the heaviest favorites on this slate. There is more working in favor of Valdez than against him and, though he’ll be a popular DFS play today, it may be worth eating the chalk here and just differentiating with your hitters/stacks.

Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | @ LAA

SP options are of course limited on a small slate, and the pickings become even slimmer if that CHC @ CIN game gets hit with the PPD treatment. However, Kyle Freeland has been pitching fairly well lately and should represent some low-owned leverage with a 12% pOwn% on DK and 2% pOwn% on FD. Dating back to June 23rd (six starts, 36.1 IP), Freeland has produced five quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) while putting up a respectable 3.22 ERA next to a 3.73 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 22.3% kRate, and 4.7% BB%. Against conventional wisdom, Freeland has actually been much better at home in the hitter’s paradise at Coors Field, but he has posted two quality starts within his last three road games.

The real draw for Freeland will be his match-ups with the Angels, who have been awful against southpaw pitching lately. Against LHPs over the last month, the Angels have limped to a .198 AVG (ranks 29th), .546 OPS (last), .248 wOBA (last), .083 ISO (last), and 57 wRC+ (last). Their 21.2% kRate in that span isn’t overly high but does settle in around league average. Freeland is far from a great pitcher, so we’ll keep expectations low, but he could realistically push for 20 DKFP/35 FDFP if his recent form holds true and if the Angels continue to do virtually nothing against LHPs.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CHC (Monitor weather)

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), PIT

+ Astros: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Woodford only has two starts/8.1 IP this season, which haven’t gone well (10.80 ERA, 6.13 xFIP, 2.40 WHIP) -- looking at a larger sample size, in 17 games since the start of 2023 (56.0 IP), Woodford has accounted for a poor 6.91 ERA, 5.41 xFIP, .1.84 WHIP, .324 opp AVG, 2.10 HR/9 Rate, 13.4% kRate, and 10.1% BB%. Ugly stuff.

+ The Astros have been a top-five offense at home against RHPs this season: .270 AVG (4th), .787 OPS (4th), .339 wOBA (4th), 122 wRC+ (3rd), and 18.8% kRate (3rd lowest).

+ The Astros have been the #4 home offense this season, averaging 4.96 runs/gm (vs. 4.32 runs/gm away). >> insert trashcan shenanigans joke here <<

- The Pirates bullpen has ranked top-10 in ERA and xFIP over the last month.

- Core Astros bats are likely to be highly owned today.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Victor Caratini

San Diego Padres vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

+ Across their recent nine-game hot streak where they’ve put up an 8-1 W/L record, the Padres have been a top-five offense: .300 AVG (1st), .833 OPS (4th), .358 wOBA (4th), and 137 wRC+ (4th). They plated 6+ runs in six of those nine games.

+ Kershaw probably still has some rust to shake off. In his 2024 debut against the Giants last Thursday, he gave up six hits and two walks across 4.0 IP (2.00 WHIP) on 72 pitches.

+ The Padres have been excellent against LHPs L30Days: .292 AVG, .842 OPS, .361 wOBA, and 140 wRC+.

+ The Dodgers have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.81 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and 1.69 HR/9 Rate.

+ Every hitter in the projected Padres lineup has a ≤ 11% pOwn%.

- Padres: 3.8 implied runs (4th lowest on the slate).

- Across 169 PA against the current Padres roster, Kershaw has held them to a modest .259 AVG and .318 wOBA.

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Jurisckson Profar, Xander Bogaerts

Bargain Bat: Luis Campusano

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

If the weather allows them to play this game, the Reds’ bats deserve plenty of consideration against a very hittable Kyle Hendricks.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

+ Every hitter in the projected A’s lineup has a ≤ 11% pOwn%.

+ This is a strong leverage spot against Webb, who has a 37% pOwn% on DK, and 18% pOwn% on FD.

+ Webb has not looked like himself in recent weeks. It’s a small sample size, but spanning his last three starts, he has come away with an 8.44 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 2.07 WHIP, .362 opp AVG, and 15.6% kRate.

+ Despite the rumors, the A’s didn’t trade away any of their big league hitters ahead of the trade deadline. They have been one of the best offenses in the month of July, posting a .849 OPS, .364. wOBA, .234 ISO, and 142 wRC+. They have also slimmed down their strikeout rate to a more league average of 21.3% in that span.

- A’s: 3.2 implied runs (ranks T-lowest on the slate).

- Based on their 3.54 xFIP, the Giants have had a top-five bullpen L30Days.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: Max Schuemann

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), PIT

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

2B Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

1B Michael Toglia, COL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

C Victor Caratini, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), PIT

SS Max Schuemann, OAK | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Brent Rooker MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Manny Machado MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!