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Top DFS Offers 7/30/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

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Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s officially trade deadline day! At the time of this writing, a few hours remain for teams to make their moves before the 6 pm ET deadline hits. Of course, we’ve seen plenty of trades go down in recent days and there’s no guarantee that we’ll see any super impactful moves made over the next several hours, but it’s important to keep an eye on any developments as we prepare for a big Tuesday MLB DFS slate! We have an 11-game main slate on tap so there is plenty to get into. Let’s dive right in! Best of luck!

If you’re interested in following along with every MLB trade that goes down, check out these links below:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/trade/

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-2024-mlb-trade-deadline-deal

(A more in-depth look at every trade with summaries of each move)

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SEA @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10.5 O/U): Warm with 10+ mph winds OUT to left. These conditions bode well for the bats.

• MIN @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Warm with 15-20 mph winds OUT to left. Low-end chance of a delay if a stray pop-up storm hits the ballpark.

• TEX @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): This game either plays without issues or it may see some mid/late-inning storms roll through this evening which would spark a delay. It’s more likely that they’ll play this one without issue, but it’s a forecast to keep an eye on closer to first pitch. Hot temps in the low 90s to begin the game. Slight bump to bats.

• COL @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. PIT

Gone are the days when we were able to snag Hunter Brown in the $7k/$8k salary ranges, but that was to be expected ever since he turned his season around in mid-May. Since May 11th (14 games, 83.0 IP), Brown has rocked a 2.39 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 26.6% kRate while limiting opposing batters to a very low 20.6% HardContact%. There aren’t many starting pitchers in the league who have posted a similar kRate and a < 30% HardContact% in that span and it’s not a stretch to say that Brown has been one of the best starters in baseball across the last two-and-a-half months.

The Pirates offense has had its nice moments in recent weeks but they haven’t been anywhere close to consistently good. Their 92 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days ranks them 24th in MLB. They have been able to slim their kRate to 21.3% in that stretch, compared to a 24.0% kRate vs. RHPs on the season, but there are some Ks to be had in this lineup. Four guys in the projected Pirates lineup own a 25+% kRate against RHPs this season and the overall team kRate has climbed when they’ve played on the road (24.8% kRate vs. RHPs on the road L30Days). The Astros (-202 ML) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and, though he’ll likely come with some fairly high ownership, Hunter Brown just checks off all of the boxes today.

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. OAK

We were able to get Ray at < 5% ownership in his 2024 debut against the Dodgers last Wednesday, but that won’t be the case today as he projects for one of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate. Ray looked like he was in his 2021 Cy Young Award-winning form right out of the gates as he fired 5.0 no-hit innings while racking up eight strikeouts on 86 pitches in his debut -- good for 26.9 DKFP/42 FDFP. Ray generated a massive 23.3% SwStr% in that outing while showcasing his new and improved knuckle curve, which produced an absurd 77.8% Whiff%.

If you’ve read these newsletters over the last week or so, you know that we’ve been on the A’s stack nearly every day. They’ve been an extremely hot offense and, against LHPs L30Days, they’ve posted an elite 153 wRC+, .381 wOBA, and .247 ISO -- all top-three metrics in the MLB in that span. However, it will be interesting to see if the A’s move some key hitters ahead of today’s trade deadline (Brent Rooker and Miguel Andujar are two names I’ve seen with some trade buzz) … perhaps even before I finish writing this newsletter. The A’s also remain a fairly strikeout-prone offense, despite crushing it at the plate lately. Their 23.3% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days is 9th highest in MLB and they’re also an offense that hasn’t been as potent on the road where they’ve averaged 3.75 runs/gm (vs. 4.58 runs/gm at home). The A’s also check in with a slate-low 3.3 implied run total today. Depending on what the A’s lineup looks like tonight, it may be worth playing both angles of this match-up -- Robbie Ray in some spots and leveraging A’s stacks in others. But if you’re someone who just rolls out a single lineup, I’d prioritize Robbie Ray over any A’s hitters as he should be in line for a nice night if he builds upon his season debut. Ray could also flirt with 100 pitches after hitting an 86-pitch count in his debut.

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. WAS

The SP value tier is pretty ugly today but if there’s one bargain bin pitcher I wouldn’t totally hate rolling out, it’s probably going to be Ryne Nelson. He’s not a consistently good pitcher, but Nelson has played fairly well over his previous eight games dating back to June 14th. In that span, Nelson has procured a 3.64 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 0.60 HR/9 Rate, and 19.4% kRate. Far from great numbers, but pretty solid for a guy at these price points.

Washington is a middling offense that has put up a 105 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month (ranks 14th) and they traded away one of their better bats in OF Lane Thomas yesterday. Nelson faced the Nats back on June 20th and, while he only put up a couple of strikeouts, he needed just 70 pitches to clear a full seven innings, allowing just two runs while earning the win -- good for 18.0 DKFP/31 FDFP. Nelson produced 9 Ks two starts ago in a match-up with the Cubs so he certainly has the ability to put up a strong strikeout total. The D-Backs are also fairly heavy -164 ML favorites today. Nelson will have some risk attached to him but he could realistically push for 20 DKFP/35 FDFP which is not something you could say about most/all of the other cheap arms on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | @ SD

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ CIN

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Mets vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

+ Mets: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-9th on the slate).

+ Festa only has 14.1 IP across three outings this season, and he’s not as bad as his 8.16 ERA would indicate, as it is backed up by a much better 4.08 xFIP, but he hasn’t been anywhere close to good. Festa has allowed a .454 wOBA/.346 ISO to RHBs & .407 wOBA/.378 ISO to LHBs, so both sides of the plate can get to him.

+ Based on their 5.11 ERA and 4.25 xFIP, the Twins have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month. The Mets also poured on 15 runs on 17 hits against Minnesota yesterday, and even excluding the 1.1 IP by position player Matt Wallner, the Twins had to dig deep into their bullpen after starter Simeon Woods Richardson only went 3.1 IP.

+ The Mets offense went on a torrid stretch in June. They came back down to earth a bit in July but they’ve still been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L30Days -- in that span, they’ve posted a .766 OPS (10th), .332 wOBA (9th), .189 ISO (9th), and 119 wRC+ (7th).

+ Citi Field is much more of a pitcher’s park but those 15-20 mph winds blowing out to left this evening will help some well-struck fly balls carry a bit further -- it also bodes well (for the Mets) that Festa has had a high 48.9% FlyBall% this season.

+ I’m not seeing much ownership falling on this stack. Every hitter in the confirmed NYM lineups has a < 10% pOwn%.

- As mentioned, Festa has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He has also posted a monster 34.9% kRate and a stout 3.14 xFIP across 60.1 IP in Triple-A this year.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jesse Winker

Bargain Bat: Jeff McNeil

Seattle Mariners (RHBs Preferred) vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

+ Mariners: 5.5 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ We’re normally looking to roll out pitchers against the Mariners but they have improved their lineup via the trade deadline and they’ve been a top-10 offense in the short term. Over the last week, Seattle has put up a .786 OPS (10th), .341 wOBA (10th), .219 ISO (6th), and 125 wRC+ (9th). They have also slimmed their kRate down to a more league-average 22.1% in that span.

+ The Red Sox picked up James Paxton, who was recently discarded by the Dodgers. Paxton has been one of the luckier starters in baseball this season. His 4.43 ERA isn’t great to begin with, but his 5.30 xFIP tells us that he has pitched worse than his ERA would indicate.

+ Paxton has posted an awful 5.76 xFIP and 1.55 WHIP against RHBs this season.

+ Outstanding hitting conditions at Fenway Park today. Warm with 10+ mph winds out to left.

+ The Red Sox bullpen has posted an MLB-worst 6.44 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the last month.

- We’re putting a lot of weight on the Mariners' short-term success. They have, of course, been among the MLB’s worst offenses this season and they have, by far, the most strikeouts of any team in baseball.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Jorge Polanco

Bargain Bat: Victor Robles/Justin Turner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Giants lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Sears is a notoriously volatile pitcher who comes into his 22nd start with a 4.81 ERA, 4.96 xFIP, 9.9% Barrel%, 40.8% HardHit%, and 45.3% FlyBall%.

+ Sears: 8 barreled balls allowed L30Days (bottom 10th percentile).

+ The Giants have been excellent against LHPs over the last month: .277 AVG (8th), .866 OPS (5th), .368 wOBA (6th), .244 ISO (3rd), and 143 wRC+ (5th).

+ The Giants have been better at home, where they’ve averaged 4.56 runs/gm (vs. 4.28 runs/gm away).

- Oracle Park: #8 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Giants: 4.2 implied runs (ranks T-7th lowest on the slate).

Favorite SF Bats: Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Casey Schmitt

Bargain Bat: Derek Hill

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Joe Ross (RHP), MIL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tony Santillan (RHP), CIN

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Jesse Winker, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

3B/SS Dylan Moore, SEA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

2B Jorge Polanco, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k  | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

3B Justin Turner, SEA | DK: $3.2k, FD: N/A | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

2B/SS Casey Schmitt, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Derek Hill, SF | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted as the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!