Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

• LineStar’s 2024 MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide ⚾

Top DFS Offers 7/3/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - 50% Deposit Match up to $250 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A second consecutive 11-game main slate will hit the docket today! On the surface, pitching probably has the upper hand on this slate with plenty of quality arms taking the mound, but with 22 teams in play, we’ll have plenty of intriguing spots to go to for offense as well. Weather also isn’t looking to be too pesky today -- always a welcomed addition on a large slate! Let’s get busy & best of luck! Also, I hope everyone enjoys the July 4th holiday tomorrow!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps around 90 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds IN from center. In typical ATL summertime fashion, there is a low-end chance of a random pop-up storm rolling over the ballpark.

• TB @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Once again, this sets up as the one spot to keep an eye on. Things don’t look quite as rough as yesterday, which resulted in a lengthy rain delay. A sizable storm system is making its way toward KC this afternoon. The worst of it looks to hold south but some moderate showers have a chance to roll over the ballpark this evening. My guess is they’ll manage to get nine innings in, but a delay of some sort is a real possibility. For now, bats seem mostly safe, but pitchers have some added risk (in case of an early/middle inning delay).

• MIL @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Temps in the 80s throughout the evening. However, there won’t be any helpful winds as they’ll be blowing upwards of 15+ mph, a bit left-to-right, a bit IN from left, and a bit IN from center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k | vs. SF

There is a pretty clear-cut top SP option on the board today by the name of Chris Sale. He is mounting a legitimate Cy Young caliber campaign and, spanning his last 12 starts, he has come away with an outstanding 2.37 ERA, 2.34 xFIP, .195 opp AVG, 0.87 WHIP, and 33.3% kRate. Outside of the one hiccup against the A’s, Sale has scored at least 24.2 DKFP/42 FDFP in every other game during that span. Sale’s 15.1% SwStr% leads all pitchers on the slate and two of his three most utilized pitches, the slider and changeup, have rated out as two of the best pitches in baseball. Sale ranks 99th percentile in breaking ball run value and 96th percentile in offspeed run value.

Sale’s match-up with the Giants may not be great on paper, as they have been one of the better offenses against LHPs this year. Against lefties, their 122 wRC+ ranks 5th in MLB, .271 AVG ranks 4th, .335 wOBA ranks 5th, and they don’t strike out a ton at a 20.3% kRate (8th lowest). But Sale has been about as match-up proof as it gets in baseball but it’s also worth diving into the pitch mix to see how the Giants stack up. As mentioned, Sale has utilized his slider and changeup regularly as two of his three most utilized pitches (along with the four-seamer). Against sliders and changeups from LHPs, the Giants have struggled to a .212 AVG (ranks 20th), and .255 wOBA (25th), and their kRate, while not overly high, has risen to 24.1%. As long as Sale doesn’t get into trouble with his fastball, we should expect another excellent line from him today.

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PHI

We’ll be looking at a possible buy-low spot for Imanaga following a few rough outings over the last month and some change. It turns out, Imanaga isn’t perfect and has bad games like any other pitcher in history. He is still posting a strong rookie campaign -- through his 15 starts, Imanaga has put up a very respectable 3.07 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 24.1% kRate, 14.0% SwStr%, and 4.0% BB%. He has also shown some improved splits at home in some key pitching metrics. Most notably, he’s seen an uptick in his strikeout rate with a 26.3% kRate at home (vs. 21.9% kRate away), his WHIP has dropped to 1.02 at home (vs. 1.20 WHIP away), and he has issued just three walks across 44.1 IP at home, resulting in a microscopic 1.7% BB% (vs. 6.5% BB% away).

As for the match-up, it’s not going to be a cakewalk against the Phillies but some things are working in Imanaga's favor here. First off, the Phillies, who are the #1 home offense in baseball (5.30 runs/gm), have not been as effective on the road where they’re averaging 4.67 runs/gm. Secondly, we have to factor in that the Phillies are missing Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto -- all on the IL with various ailments. Those guys account for three of the top four OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ numbers on the team when looking at splits versus LHPs on the road. Only three healthy Phillies (E. Sosa, B. Sottt, and N. Castellanos) have a wRC+ above 94 against LHPs on the road this season. This game sets up as a likely pitcher’s duel and Imanaga deserves some DFS consideration at these depressed price points.

David Festa (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.1k | vs. DET

We’ve got several intriguing value arms on this slate but David Festa will draw the spotlight as he prepares for his second career MLB start. Festa is a guy with some pedigree and he ranks as the Twins’ #4 prospect and top pitching prospect. He’s also a top 100 prospect in all of baseball (#89 overall, per MLB.com). Festa received a rude welcome to the MLB in his first career start last Thursday against the D-Backs, where he allowed 5 ER across 5.0 IP (78 pitches) on seven hits and a walk while striking out just two batters. Thanks to an offensive barrage by this Twins offense, Festa still ended up earning the win. But looking at his more substantial sample size at the Triple-A level this season (59.2 IP), Festa posted an excellent 35.1% kRate to go along with a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.15 xFIP. So, contrary to his MLB debut performance, he’s certainly a guy who can rack up plenty of Ks, and perhaps getting to take the mound at home for the first time will settle his nerves this evening.

Festa will also draw a much more forgiving match-up in his second dose of MLB action. The Tigers have been absolutely awful against RHPs lately. Over the L2Weeks against RHPs, they’re hitting for a meager .189 AVG (ranks 29th) with a .566 OPS (dead last), .251 wOBA (last), .129 ISO (24th), and 60 wRC+ (last). They have also posted an above-average 22.9% kRate in that span. Detroit is rolling out an inexperienced starting pitcher of their own (RHP Keider Montero). Backed up by a strong offense, Festa and the Twins will step in as heavy -175 ML favorites. So, if he can work through 5+ innings, I like his chances of returning some nice value today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.7k | @ CHC

Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. ARI

Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ OAK

Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ ATL

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. TB (Monitor weather)

Joey Estes (RHP), OAK | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

Non-Coors Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

+ Twins: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Twins rank top-10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and kRate.

+ This will be just Montero’s third career MLB appearance. Albeit a small 8.2 IP sample size, he has not looked great with a 9.35 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and .286 opp AVG, and he has already given up three HRs leading to a 3.12 HR/9 Rate.

+ Across 48.1 IP in Triple-A this year, Montero posted some lackluster results: 5.03 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, and 13.4% BB%.

+ The Tigers bullpen owns an MLB-worst 5.95 ERA and 2.13 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks.

- The Twins will likely be without their best hitter, Royce Lewis, who is not expected to play today due to a groin injury.

- The Twins have been less effective at home where they’re averaging 4.55 runs/gm (vs. 5.04 runs/gm away).

Favorite MIN Bats: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Willi Castro

Bargain Bat: Jose Miranda

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. *Cristian Mena (RHP), ARI

*Mena is not currently the confirmed D-Backs starter at the time of this writing, but his recent call-up suggests he is the most likely starter tonight.

+ Dodgers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Against RHPs this season, the Dodgers rank 4th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+.

+ Assuming he is eventually confirmed as the starter, Cristian Mena comes in as the D-Backs’ #11 prospect (via MLB.com), but he has not had a great year in Triple-A: 82.2 IP, 4.90 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, 1.63 HR/9 Rate, and 24.6% HR/FB Rate.

+ Making your first career MLB start on the road against the Dodgers may be one of the most difficult spots to debut.

+ The D-Backs bullpen has posted a 5.29 ERA L2Weeks and they utilized a few of their best relievers in last night’s closely contested game, so at least a couple of those guys may not be available to pitch tonight.

- The Dodgers have been marginally less effective at home, averaging 4.80 runs/gm (vs. 5.31 runs/gm away).

- The Dodgers still have two key offensive contributors on the IL (Mookie Betts & Max Muncy) and the other big bats that you’ll want in LAD stacks are going to be very pricey.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Andy Pages

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

+ Every hitter in the Rangers lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ RHBs shouldn’t be completely ruled out of Rangers stacks, specifically, Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford, but LHBs will have the advantage versus Mazur while he’s on the mound. It’s not an extensive sample size (55 PA), but Mazur has been awful versus LHBs: .333 AVG, .463 wOBA, .214 ISO, 11.57 ERA, 10.97 xFIP, 4.07 WHIP, and 1.93 HR/9 Rate.

+ After a prolonged slump, the Rangers are turning things around at the plate. Against RHPs over the last week, Texas ranks top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and kRate.

+ Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

- Padres have had an above-average bullpen L2Weeks.

- The Rangers will still be without their top LHB, Corey Seager (wrist/DTD, out of the lineup tonight).

Favorite TEX Bats: Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Smith, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Leody Taveras

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Cristian Mena (RHP), ARI

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

3B Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

3B Jose Miranda, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

2B/3B Jonathan Ornelas, TEX | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Nathaniel Lowe MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

David Festa MORE than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!