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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll get the ball rolling on another week of MLB action with a not-massive-but-still-sizable eight-game main slate! This slate will strike a fairly nice balance between viable pitching and hitting/stack options so we should have a good time putting builds together today without feeling the pressure that one of those massive 10+ game slates provides. We will need to keep track of some potential rainy weather, mostly along the East Coast but, at least at the moment, I don’t believe we’ll see any postponements -- however, that could change as we get closer to first pitch so just stay mindful of some of the forecasts today (more on this in the weather section below). Of course, the most unique aspect of today’s set of games is that it will be the final full day before tomorrow’s 6 PM ET trade deadline hits. We haven’t seen many massive trades go down ahead of this year’s deadline, but there have certainly been some impact players that have already been shipped elsewhere.

If you’re interested in following along with every MLB trade that goes down, check out these links below:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/trade/

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-2024-mlb-trade-deadline-deal

(A more in-depth look at every trade with summaries of each move)

With all of that said, let’s dive into this slate! Best of luck!

Quick Note: I wasn’t able to get a start on today’s newsletter until around 3 ET so this will be a fairly concise edition!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CHC @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Rain looks pretty likely for this game but the current expectation/hope is that anything that goes over the ballpark during the game will be on the lighter side and they could just play through it. Heavier rains arrive later in the evening after the game should be over. Nonetheless, we’ll need to track this game and see how things are looking closer to first pitch.

• SEA @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered showers around Boston this evening but nothing that looks overly threatening. We’ll pin this with a “chance for a delay but more than likely plays fine.”

• MIN @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Similar outlook as BOS. There’s enough rain around the general NY area this evening that a delay is possible, but not the likeliest outcome. Some notable 10-20 mph winds will be blowing OUT to center, providing a potential bump for bats.

• TEX @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Storms either hold East of the ballpark or won’t arrive until after the game. Pending a change in the forecast, no problems are expected here. Hot temps around 90 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to center/right.

• KC @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Rainstorms clear this afternoon but if they linger a bit longer than expected, we may see a late start here. Once they get going (which very well may be on time), there won’t be any further issues. Light 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SEA

The obvious spend-up at pitcher today will be the indomitable rookie right-hander Paul Skenes (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k) -- even in a less-than-ideal match-up against the Astros, who aren’t known for striking out much, Skenes is a can’t miss play today… and ownership will reflect that.

As a pivot off of Skenes, we’ll give a look at Nick Pivetta. Now, due to his match-up, I don’t expect him to fly under the radar, but he could easily check in at half of the ownership of Skenes. Pivetta’s 29.5% kRate on the season ranks 2nd among today’s starting pitchers behind, well, you know who (hint: it’s Skenes at a 34.2% kRate). However, Pivetta brings quite a bit of volatility to him since he can be very hittable at times. His 4.50 ERA across his 16 starts (84.0 IP) this season is backed up by a notably better 3.35 xFIP, but he has a penchant for giving up the long ball with a 1.61 HR/9 Rate.

Of course, the match-up erases many of our concerns. The Mariners have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball but their offense has consistently been among the worst. They have added Randy Arozarena ahead of the trade deadline (and, as I was writing this, it was announced they also traded for the Blue Jays’ Justin Turner -- but he will not be in the lineup today), but they need a lot more help than that. Their 29.6% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month remains the highest mark in the league and they’re hitting for a meager .208 average and subpar 93 wRC+. They have just three hitters in their [confirmed] lineup today with a kRate LOWER than 26.6% --- and three guys (Raleigh, Polanco, Raley) are over 30%! Pivetta’s first start of the season came against this Mariners squad and he was able to rack up 10 Ks across 6.0 IP (84 pitches) and procured 29.7 DKFP/49 FDFP. If Pivetta can keep the ball inside the field of play and avoid one of his patented blow-up innings, he should work out nicely this evening.

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CWS

Marsh is far from the most exciting DFS option out there but, to no surprise, he’s going to be worthy of consideration due to his match-up with the White Sox, who are in hard-sell mode. The White Sox already dealt away one of their best hitter, Tommy Pham, to the Cardinals earlier today and I wouldn’t be shocked if OF Luis Robert Jr. is traded before tonight’s game. Regardless, they’re just not a good big league roster and that is pretty blatant when you look at their MLB-worst 65 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month, which is paired with a 26.9% kRate (2nd highest behind SEA).

Marsh’s DFS results have been fairly up-and-down in recent weeks but he has posted a quality 24.1% kRate over his last five starts. The Royals (-174 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate. We should expect a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) out of Marsh this evening, which should also come with a win bonus attached and around 6-to-8 Ks.

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ MIL

Both starting pitchers in this game are affordable and intriguing DFS options -- with RHP Colin Rea (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k) taking the mound for the Brewers, facing a Braves team that ranks 25th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate (26.5%, 3rd highest) against RHPs over the last month.

Holmes is more preferred as an SP2 punt play on DraftKings, where he is priced at the stone minimum (for pitchers) of $4,000. He has exclusively appeared out of the bullpen for Atlanta this season (10 games, 23.1 IP), typically pitching multiple innings, but he isn’t going to carry a traditional starting workload. That said, he did throw for a season-high 52 pitches in his last appearance five days ago, so he could potentially stretch out to 60 or so pitches tonight if things go well. By all accounts, he has been great as a reliever, posting a 2.70 ERA, 3.12 xERA, 0.94 WHIP, 23.6% kRate, and an excellent 15.9% SwStr% this season -- which indicates that his overall kRate should be closer to 30%.

The Brewers match-up won’t be a cakewalk but they are playing without their best hitter, Christian Yelich (back, IL) and Milwaukee has checked in at 21st or worst in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L30Days to go along with a 24.4% kRate (8th highest). Rolling with Holmes as your SP2 on DraftKings opens up a ton of roster flexibility and if we can squeeze 12-15 DKFP out of him, I believe we’d be content with that.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k | @ HOU

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.4k | @ STL

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Note: I have to keep the stack section very short today!

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

+ D-Backs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

The D-Backs come into this match-up fairly hot, averaging 6.4 runs/gm L5Games. They’ve been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs L30Days and Mitchell Parker is coming off of a pair of ugly starts in back-to-back games. Parker has also allowed 8 barreled balls and a 199.0 feet average batted-ball distance L30Days (bottom 10th percentile in both). The Nationals bullpen has also been very mediocre in recent weeks.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno

Bargain Bat: Eugenio Suarez

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

+ Reds: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

The Reds bats have cooled off a bit lately but, following an eight-game road trip, they return home today to the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. The Reds averaged 7.14 runs/gm over their previous seven home games and they’ll face off with Jameson Taillon today, who averages -42.9% less FPPG when pitching on the road. In 67 PA versus Taillon, the current Reds roster owns a stout .286 AVG and .390 wOBA.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson

Bargain Bat: TJ Friedl

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

+ Every hitter in the projected Pirates lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

You’re not going to get much consistency out of this Pirates offense but they’ve shown a fair bit of upside in recent weeks and they could have Bryan Reynolds back in the lineup today, who was playing well before going on the bereavement list last Thursday. Jake Bloss only has 11.2 big league innings under his belt, and he hasn’t been good by any stretch (6.94 ERA, 5.79 xERA, 1.63 WHIP, 52.5% FlyBall%, 23.8% HR/FB Rate). The Astros do have a quality bullpen that they can fall back on if Bloss gets blown up early, but that doesn’t prevent the Pirates from being an enticing low-owned stack today.

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds (if available), Rowdy Tellez (if available)

Bargain Bat: Joey Bart

Sorry, no one-off or bargain bat sections today! Just ran too short on time and I’d rather leave this section blank than put together a rushed-out list of hitters. We’ll get back to the normal newsletter format tomorrow!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!