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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It was a quiet MLB Thursday but there is no shortage of baseball action to enjoy today as we prepare to take on a 12-game main slate! As you would expect on such a large slate, we have a virtually unlimited amount of ways to attack this slate. Top to bottom, pitching is pretty solid but there are still a slew of hitters/stacks in advantageous spots. Weather also looks to be very cooperative across all of the hosting ballparks this evening, which is always a nice surprise on a slate of this size! Let’s get right down to business and dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CHC @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

• OAK @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

• COL @ SF (10:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cool temps in the 50s will make hitting HRs difficult here tonight. As always, we can mostly ignore those 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left since Oracle Park’s design mitigates wind impacts.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. MIA

Peralta is going to catch some interest today thanks to his high kRate (30.4%) in a strong match-up combined with his sub-$10k price tags on both sites. He has been fairly feast of famine on a game-to-game basis this season but whether or not you still consider him to be an ace-caliber arm, you can’t deny his upside. We’ll also like the fact that he’s at home this evening where he owns a 31.7% kRate, 3.16 xFIP, and 1.12 WHIP this season -- all slight improvements over his 29.3% kRate, 3.67 xFIP, and 1.20 WHIP on the road.

The Marlins are capable of hitting for average, but that’s about it. Their .251 AVG vs. RHPs L30Days ranks 10th in MLB, however, their .690 OPS, .301 wOBA, .135 ISO, and 93 wRC+ in that same span all rank 22nd or worse, respectively. Miami’s 25.6% kRate against RHPs over the last month is also the 3rd highest mark in the league. In 66 PA versus the current Miami roster, Peralta has held them to a .206 AVG and .245 wOBA while racking up a 30.3% kRate. Peralta is a little more volatile than I’d like a pitcher to be at these high-end salaries, but this shouldn’t be a letdown spot. The Brewers (-230 ML) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and, correspondingly, the Marlins are being pinned with a slate-low 3.2 implied run total. That last point isn’t too surprising considering the Marlins are averaging an MLB-worst 3.02 runs/gm on the road this season.

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9k | vs. CHC

Singer is a peak “boring pitcher” in my mind but we’ll like the spot he’s in this evening at home in a promising match-up. Singer’s home/road splits have some sizable differences and I don’t believe it’s just “noise”. Here’s a quick look at how Singer has fared home/away this season:

Home: 2.43 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, .203 opp AVG, .263 opp wOBA, 0.54 HR/9 Rate, 24.7% kRate

Away: 3.86 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, .290 opp AVG, .374 opp wOBA, 1.83 HR/9 Rate, 24.7% kRate

Essentially, Singer goes from a pitcher you wouldn’t mind stacking against when he’s on the road to a pitcher you’d love to roster when he’s slinging it from his home mound.

The Cubbies come into Kansas City with some awful form. Since the return from the All-Star Break, the Cubs have a meager .148 AVG, .456 OPS, .212 wOBA, .074 ISO, 33 wRC+, and 23.8% kRate across 151 plate appearances against RHPs. Singer has flashed a couple of ceiling games recently and he could put up another big performance this evening but, regardless, he should be a strong floor play out of the mid-range.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k | vs. COL

Digging into the value range, Kyle Harrison is going to be one of the more intriguing picks. After putting up some monster strikeout numbers in the minor leagues, Harrison made his MLB debut with the Giants in 2023. Since entering the MLB, the strikeouts have not exactly come in droves as he’s gone on to post a slightly below-average 21.3% kRate over 125.2 big league innings. His kRate has climbed a bit at home this season and he’s coming off of an impressive outing at Coors Field last week where he held this same Rockies squad scoreless on just one hit and four walks across 5.0 IP (93 pitches) while striking out six.

We’ll hope for a similar, if not better, performance this evening since he’ll now get to face the “road Rockies.” Colorado is coming off of a six-game homestand and going from the high, hitter-friendly elevation at Coors Field down to sea level at Oracle Park where temps will be in the 50s tonight is about as extreme of a ballpark transition that you’ll see. The Rockies own a massive 32.3% kRate against LHPs when playing on the road over the last month so we’ll expect a decent strikeout total from Harrison this evening and he’s fully capable of limiting the hit/run damage as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ CWS

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.8k | vs. WAS

Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | @ ARI

Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Oakland Athletics vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

+ A’s: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Fulmer has mostly pitched as a reliever his season but has started two consecutive games. He had a strong outing in his start against the strikeout-prone Mariners, but his season-long numbers are not great, especially when you consider that he has often come into games in more advantageous spots out of the bullpen. Across 51.2 IP this season, Fulmer owns a 3.66 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 90.6 mph average exit velo, and a slate-worst 11.8% Barrel%.

+ I’ve been spamming the A’s in this stack section but they have been on an absolute heater over their last 15 games, ranking as the MLB’s top offense in that span in every major category: .294 AVG (1st), .908 OPS (1st), .387 wOBA (1st), .254 ISO (1st), and 158 wRC+ (1st).

+ Angel Stadium has ranked as the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season and there will be some ~10 mph winds blowing out to center this evening.

+ Once again, outside of Brent Rooker, the rest of this A’s lineup is very affordable.

+/- The Angels bullpen has posted strong surface stats over the last month -- 2.62 ERA, .180 opp AVG, and 1.03 WHIP -- however, their 4.79 xFIP in that same stretch is the 2nd worst mark in MLB, indicating some regression is due.

- The A’s haven’t been as potent on the road where they’ve averaged 3.69 runs/gm (vs. 4.58 runs/gm at home).

- Despite this being a huge 12-game slate, I’d expect that the A’s will be fairly chalky today -- especially the red-hot duo of Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler… but you can’t confidently exclude those guys from OAK stacks just because of ownership.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Miguel Andujar

Bargain Bat: Max Schuemann

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

+ Royals: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ Hendricks is a soft-tossing righty that doesn’t miss many bats with his 15.8% kRate/7.9% SwStr%. Some of his poor numbers come from a handful of relief appearances, which arguably makes them even worse. Across 75.1 IP this season, he has struggled to a 6.69 ERA, 5.04 xERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 17.9% HR/FB Rate.

+ Hendricks has allowed a 2.21 HR/9 Rate on the road this season.

+ The Royals’ offense has some drastic home/road splits, and we’ll get them at home today where they’re averaging 5.24 runs/gm (ranks 2nd in MLB) -- compared to just 3.94 runs/gm on the road.

+ Against RHPs at home over the last month, the Royals have posted a .294 AVG, .833 OPS, .356 wOBA, .191 ISO, 125 wRC+, and 16.5% kRate.

+ Based on Park Factor, Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The Cubbies’ bullpen has been rock-solid over the last 30 days: 1.22 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 0.33 HR/9 Rate, so the vast majority of the Royals’ offensive damage will need to come while Hendricks is on the mound.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Hunter Renfroe

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

+ Every Braves hitter in the confirmed lineup has a ≤ 3% pOwn%.

+ This will be Senga’s 2024 MLB debut. He’s of course an outstanding pitcher, but he will reportedly carry a five-inning/85 pitch count restriction into tonight’s game.

+ Senga looked rusty in his most recent rehab starts. It’s only a three-start, 10.1 IP sample size at the Triple-A level but, in that span, Senga came away with an ugly 5.23 ERA, 6.16 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, and his 14.6% kRate was identical to his 14.6% Walk Rate.

+ If the Braves can get Senga up to his pitch count restriction early, they’ll face a Mets bullpen that has posted a 5.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 1.72 HR/9 Rate over the last month. At the very least, they should have four innings against the Mets bullpen at minimum.

+ Senga currently has a 21% pOwn%, so if the Braves do any remotely significant damage against him, they’ll represent some nice leverage.

- The Braves offense is nowhere near full strength and they’ve been pretty dreadful at the plate, ranking 25th or worse against RHPs L30Days in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate.

- Braves: 3.4 implied runs (ranks 4th lowest on the slate).

- Citi Field: #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud

Bargain Bat: Nacho Alvarez Jr.

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

SS Bobby Witt Jr., | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

2B/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Miguel Andujar, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7K | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4K | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

OF Jorge Soler, SF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3K | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Austin Wells, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8K | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

1B Michael Toglia, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3K | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

2B/3B Jose Iglesias, NYM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6K | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9K | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

2B/SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9K | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Colton Cowser, BAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9K | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B Connor Norby, BAL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS

SS Max Schuemann, OAK | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Juan Soto MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Brent Rooker MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!