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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll still have a respectable eight-game main slate lined up on this split slate Wednesday. This one doesn’t set up as the most glamorous of slates, but we’ll still have a nice mix of pitchers and hitters/stacks to build around. This will be a slightly earlier start than usual with the first games set to get underway at 6:40 ET so let’s waste no time and jump right to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ CLE (6:40 ET, 7.0 O/U): A few scattered showers may be in the area around first pitch. Might see a late start here but once they get underway, there should be no further issues.

• SD @ WAS (6:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): More scattered showers here, which pose a larger threat than the ones that may roll through Cleveland. A postponement isn’t likely to be in the cards but, if one of those storms hits the ballpark, they may be hit with a fairly lengthy delay. The game may also play without issue, so we’ll just approach this one with mild caution.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CWS

We have a fairly defined top tier featuring five pitchers on this slate -- Glasnow, Cole, Flaherty, and Eovaldi with Tanner Bibee sneaking in there. Those are all great arms worthy of DFS consideration but, from my point of view, Eovaldi has the clearest pathway to success today. First up, he’ll be pitching at home where he has been notably more reliable for both real life and DFS purposes. In 63.2 IP at home this season, Eovaldi has thoroughly impressed with a 2.69 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .184 opp AVG, and 24.7% kRate against just a 4.9% BB% -- and he has averaged +32.9% more FPPG at home.

The second reason Eovaldi is going to be a strong, albeit popular, SP option today is probably the most obvious -- he gets to pitch against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox extended their losing streak to nine games yesterday and, in that span, they’ve scored no more than four runs in a single game, and two runs or fewer in seven games. Since that losing streak began on July 10th, the White Sox have posted an MLB-worst 45 wRC+ vs. RHPs to go alongside a lofty 27.2% kRate (3rd highest). So, even with the Rangers' offense being fairly stagnant lately, they’ll still check in as by far the heaviest favorites on the slate with -270 ML odds. Eovaldi will be chalky today, but he should provide a very stable floor on this slate and it won’t be difficult to simply differentiate elsewhere in lineups.

Chayce McDermott (RHP), BAL | DK: $8k, FD: N/A | @ MIA

Note: This will be a DraftKings-only play since McDermott is not in the FanDuel player pool.

As usual, sliding a guy making his MLB debut into lineups is going to come with some inherent risk, but McDermott makes for an intriguing option today. He is the Orioles’ top pitching prospect who brings a ton of strikeout upside to the table. Across 91.0 IP in Triple-A this year, McDermott has rocked an outstanding 12.76 K/9 and 32.3% kRate. His 3.96 ERA and 4.27 xFIP in that same time have not been outstanding, and he does have some control issues which have led to a high 13.5% BB%. But he has held his minor league opponents to a .222 AVG and, at a month shy of his 26th birthday, one would hope that he won’t be too green behind the gills when making his first big league outing.

The Marlins have not been a match-up we’ve shied away from for most of this season so, even though he’ll be debuting on the road, it’s not a bad spot for McDermott to get his first taste of how it feels to face MLB hitters. Against RHPs over the last month, the Marlins rank 25th or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while posting a 26.9% kRate (2nd highest in that span). They’ve also posted a 6.4% BB% in that stretch against righties, representing the 6th lowest walk rate -- a positive in the direction of McDermott who, as mentioned, has struggled with walks in the minor leagues. Once again, rostering any pitcher in their MLB debut, no matter the pedigree, can backfire pretty easily but we just have to like his strikeout potential in this match-up. Unless he runs into a blowup inning, I wouldn’t expect McDermott to face any significant workload restrictions and the Orioles do step in as moderate -138 ML favorites today. The Marlins are also being pinned with a low 3.7 implied run total -- 4th lowest on today’s slate.

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | @ LAD

The Giants, who recently got Blake Snell back in action, will get another left-handed former Cy Young Award winner back in the fold today. Excluding a brief appearance that lasted just 3.1 innings at the beginning of the 2023 season, Robbie Ray hasn’t stepped foot on a big league mound since the end of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. So, needless to say, there is likely some rust to shake off. However, he received ten rehab starts in the minor leagues and built up to 78 pitches in his most recent outing. By all accounts, he has looked pretty solid ahead of his 2024 debut. It’s of course not a huge sample size, but in Ray’s 10.2 IP in Triple-A (he also pitched at two lower MiLB levels), Ray turned in a 2.53 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, .114 opp AVG, and 30.8% kRate. Across his entire rehab stint, Ray turned in a 45:6 K:BB ratio across 29.1 IP, so the strikeout stuff certainly seems to still be there for the 2021 MLB strikeout leader.

A road match-up with the Dodgers may not seem like the most appealing spot for Robbie Ray to make his return to the big leagues because, well, it isn’t. But the Dodgers also haven’t been crushing lefties either. Their .294 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month rank them 25th and 23rd in the MLB, respectively. Even if he’s only going to throw around 75-80 pitches, Ray’s strikeout potential is enough of a pull to give him a speculative shot at these low-end DFS price points. In 194 PA versus the current Dodgers roster, Ray has procured a 29.4% kRate across his career, so he is a candidate to snag a respectable strikeout total today. Yet another risky play, but it’s a nice leverage spot on Ray, who could easily come in at under 10% ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k | vs. SF (Likely on a pitch count restriction)

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | @ CLE (Slight concerns over a pitch count restriction since he’s likely to be traded before next week’s deadline)

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. DET

Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles (LHBs Preferred) vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

+ Baltimore is rolling out seven LHBs in their lineup, to begin with, but they’ll be the bats to focus on in any O’s stacks. Against LHBs this season, Cabrera has allowed a .448 wOBA, .333 ISO, and 3.38 HR/9 Rate alongside a 10.97 ERA, 5.43 xFIP, and 1.88 WHIP.

+ Cabrera statcast data L30Days: 38.9% LineDrive%, 55.6% HardContact%, 90.7 mph average exit velo (bottom 15th percentile), and 205.8 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 10%).

+ The Orioles have consistently been a top-tier offense vs. RHPs this season, ranking 2nd in OPS, 3rd in wOBA, 1st in ISO, 3rd in wRC+, and 1st in HardContact%.

+ While not traditionally known as a hitter-friendly ballpark, loanDepot Park has ranked 7th in Park Factor this season.

+ The Orioles have been the #1 road offense this season, averaging 5.33 runs/gm away (vs. 4.62 runs/gm at home).

-/+ Orioles: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

- The Marlins bullpen has been strong in recent weeks -- their 3.16 xFIP L30Days ranks 2nd in MLB.

- Cabrera is a solid strikeout pitcher (28.1% kRate) whose surface stats may not be indicative of his true talent. His 7.36 ERA on the season is backed up by a much stronger 3.85 xFIP, so he is a positive regression candidate.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn

Bargain Bat: Heston Kjerstad

Kansas City Royals vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

+ Royals: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ It’s a short sample size, but in the five games since returning from the All-Star Break, the Royals own a .319 AVG, .855 OPS, .367 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and 18.3% kRate against RHPs (153 PA).

+ Nelson has strung together a few solid outings together recently but he’s been a below-par starter for much of the season. Across 16 starts, Nelson has posted a 4.78 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 17.0% kRate, and 8.2% SwStr%.

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+ The Royals have been the #2 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.22 runs/gm (vs. 3.94 runs/gm away).

- Based on their 3.61 xFIP, the D-Backs bullpen has been a top-10 relief unit over the last month.

- As mentioned, Nelson has been really solid recently. Over his last three starts, he owns a 2.33 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, and .167 opp AVG. Nelson has also been better on the road this season (+39.1% more FPPG).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino

Bargain Bat: Kyle Isbel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected D-Backs lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Wacha has been pretty sharp this season (3.55 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts), but he has had a fairly soft overall schedule. The D-Backs will be one of the best offenses he has faced all season.

+ Wacha L30Days: 9 barreled balls allowed (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The D-Backs have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L30Days: .768 OPS (9th), .330 wOBA (9th), .198 ISO (5th), 113 wRC+ (10th), and 19.6% kRate (4th lowest).

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+ The D-Backs have been the #6 road offense this season, averaging 4.92 runs/gm.

- The Royals bullpen owns a 3.50 xFIP L30Days -- 5th best in MLB.

- Even if it has come in some pitcher-friendly match-ups, Wacha heads into tonight in nice form with a 1.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 25.3% kRate over his last five starts.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker

Bargain Bat: Alek Thomas

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

2B/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chayce McDermott (RHP), BAL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Jesse Winker, WAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

1B Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

2B Colt Keith, DET | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

2B/OF Richie Palacios, TB | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

OF Heston Kjerstad, BAL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Jhonkensy Noel, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

1B Juan Yepez, WAS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chayce McDermott (RHP), BAL

OF Alek Thomas, ARI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Isbel, KC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Chayce McDermott MORE than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

Juan Yepez MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!