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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A big boy 11-game main slate hits the board today! This slate seems to strike a nice balance between pitching (albeit a bit top-heavy) and hitting/stack options, so we should have plenty of fun with this one. I would like to throw out a precaution that may apply to certain players over the next week. Since we are exactly one week out from the MLB’s trade deadline, be aware that some of the more highly coveted trade pieces (e.g. Garrett Crochet, Brent Rooker, Luis Robert Jr., Jack Flaherty, Jazz Chisholm Jr., etc.) may face some sort of restrictions in the meantime as those teams believed to be “sellers” look to keep their valuable trade assets healthy. This applies to pitchers more so than hitters -- for instance, take a peek at Garrett Crochet’s most recent “start” -- but the soon-to-be-traded hitters may also get an early hook or additional “rest days” between now and the July 30th deadline. With that said, let’s get down to business on today’s huge slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYM @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few sprinkles in the area. Not a major concern.

• CIN @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): Another standard summertime Atlanta forecast. Scattered showers and storms will be moving through, or popping up, in the general area. The worst of it looks to stay north of the ballpark, but be aware that a delay is a possibility and a PPD cannot 100% be ruled out, although very unlikely at this time.

• MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A line of storms may be moving through the area either around first pitch or during the middle innings so I could see anything from a late start or an in-game delay being a possibility here. Low-end PPD potential as well. I would take a look at this forecast closer to first pitch before locking any players into lineups, especially pitchers as an in-game delay could cut their outing short.

• ARI @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Very low-end chance of a brief rain delay.

• BOS @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): No helpful winds at Coors Field today but it will be warm, with temps in the mid-80s. Decent bump to bats at an already very hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | vs. LAA

Outside of an early-season lull in May, Gilbert has been his usual rock-solid self on the mound. Over his 20 starts, he has boasted a sharp 2.79 ERA, 3.12 xERA, 0.87 WHIP, 24.8% kRate, and 14.0% SwStr% while allowing just a 5.0% Walk Rate. Some of the Mariners pitchers tend to show notably stronger home splits in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. Gilbert’s home/road splits are fairly identical by most key pitching metrics, except for the fact that he has attained an improved 27.4% kRate at home, versus a more league-average 22.7% kRate when pitching on the road.

Gilbert just had a stellar outing against this same Angels team in his last start -- 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, and 9 K, good for 32.6 DKFP/52 FDFP, even without snagging the win bonus in a no-decision. Normally, I’m not overly enthusiastic about rostering a pitcher who is facing the same offense in back-to-back starts, even if they’re a poor offense, but Gilbert’s last game against the Angels came before the All-Star Break nine days ago, so that becomes less of a concern in my book. The Angels haven’t been atrocious against RHPs lately, but they’ve been below league-average across the board, ranking 19th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days. There isn’t a ton of power in this LAA lineup and while their 22.3% kRate in that same span isn’t overly high, it still leaves room for plenty of Ks for a pitcher of Gilbert’s caliber. Gilbert is also a very economical pitcher who has cleared at least 6.0 IP in 17-of-20 starts this season, so we have to love his chances of turning in another quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) this evening.

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIN

I don’t find the mid-range to be overly appealing at pitcher today, so we’ll spotlight another high-end arm. Zack Wheeler may not be the most exciting ace in the league, but he’s an ace nonetheless and isn’t necessarily priced like one on DraftKings at $9,500. Across 19 starts this season, Wheeler has procured a 2.70 ERA, 2.89 xERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 27.0% kRate. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s backed up by a potent and now mostly healthy Phillies lineup that can generate plenty of run support.

Wheeler can typically churn out a solid pitching line no matter who he’s up against. That said, he won’t have an easy task today. Against RHPs L30Days, the Twins rank 3rd or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate (18.2%, 3rd lowest). However, the Twins are not at full strength heading into this match-up and are missing three key batters who were significant contributors to those strong aforementioned offensive numbers -- Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Jose Miranda are all on the IL with various ailments. The Phillies are moderate -145 ML road favorites and, though we may not see a ceiling game out of Wheeler, he’s almost always going to be a quality floor play. On DraftKings, he could even be utilized as a premium SP2 candidate to pair with one of the other aces on the board today -- namely, Logan Gilbert or the dominant lefty Chris Sale (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k).

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CWS

The pitching value tier is filled with landmines -- guys who are either very boom-or-bust, due for regression, low-quality starters, or pitchers who will have workload concerns. So, with a lackluster mid-tier, spending up at SP definitely feels like the way to go today but Jon Gray could be worth a dart throw if you’re looking to save some cash in favor of bigger bats. Gray had a great start to his 2024 campaign, pitching to a 2.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 24.1% kRate across his first 10 starts of the season. It has been a completely different story in his nine appearances since then where Gray has come away with a poor 6.82 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 13.8% kRate. In his defense, Gray has faced some tough teams in that recent stretch but it’s still pretty remarkable how far he fell off.

If Gray is to regain his early-season form, it would seem likely to come by way of a friendly match-up with the generally inept White Sox offense. Sure, they occasionally pop off every now and then, but they’ll often struggle even against low-end starting pitchers. They’re currently on an eight-game losing streak and have scored more than two runs just twice in that span, and no more than four runs in a single game altogether. Over the last month, the White Sox rank dead last with a 72 wRC+ vs. RHPs to go along with a 25.1% kRate (5th highest). Gray probably isn’t going to pitch deep into this game, as he hasn’t thrown more than 78 pitches in a start since May 15th, but if we can squeeze five quality innings out of him with a handful of strikeouts and a win bonus (TEX: -145 ML favorites), then we’ll probably be content with that outcome.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k | vs. CIN (Monitor weather)

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ SEA

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ CHC (Monitor weather)

Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.6k | @ ATL (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

+ D-Backs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Against RHPs L30Days, the D-Backs have ranked 6th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and kRate.

+ Marsh has posted some very volatile results in recent weeks. Spanning his last six games, he has come away with a 6.93 ERA, 4.67 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .303 opp AVG, .387 opp wOBA, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate.

+ Marsh: seven barreled balls L30Days (bottom 15th percentile).

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The D-Backs have been the #6 road offense in the MLB, averaging 4.90 runs/gm.

- The Royals have had a top-10 bullpen over the last month: 3.26 ERA & 3.68 xFIP.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll

Bargain Bat: Eugenio Suarez

Oakland Athletics vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

+ The A’s have been landing in this stack section plenty as of late. They may not always come through, like last night, but when they hit, they generally REALLY hit. Over their last 12 games (475 PA), the A’s have rocked a .295 AVG (1st), .896 OPS (1st), .382 wOBA (1st), .238 ISO (2nd), and 155 wRC+ (1st).

+ Jake Bloss only has two MLB starts and 7.2 IP under his belt, so we don’t have much to go off of as far as big league stats, but he has heavily utilized the four-seam fastball on 47.8% of his pitches. Against RHP four-seamers in the month of July, the A’s have put up an MLB-leading .436 wOBA to go along with a .330 AVG, .295 ISO, 48.4% HardHit%, and a low 15.2% kRate.

+ I’m not sure if they’ll ultimately end up super low-owned, but the current ownership projections give every A’s hitter in the projected lineup a ≤ 5% pOwn%.

+ The A’s have been better at home, where they’ve averaged 4.59 runs/gm (vs. 3.65 runs/gm away).

+ As usual, outside of Brent Rooker, every A’s bat is very affordable. This is especially notable on a slate that leans toward spending up at pitcher. Mixing in some cheap A’s bats will also help you afford some of the bigger Coors Field bats if you so choose.

-/+ A’s: 4.2 implied runs (ranks T-10th among non-Coors teams).

- The Astros have had a top-10 bullpen L30Days: 3.33 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and .205 opp AVG.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday

Bargain Bat: Max Schuemann

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

+ Every Rangers hitter in the confirmed lineup has a ≤ 7% pOwn% -- eight hitters are < 5% pOwn%.

+ Crochet has been one of the most electric starters in the MLB this season, but there is a real possibility that he’ll work under heavy workload restrictions until he is presumably traded to a contender. Crochet threw just 28 pitches across 2.0 IP in his last start before he got the non-injury-related hook.

+ While he has still been good on the road, Crochet has overall been less effective when pitching away (-38.7% less FPPG).

+ The White Sox have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 4.64 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, and 1.41 WHIP.

- This really is mostly a leverage stack as the Rangers have been very average, at best, offensively and their top hitters have been dormant at the plate. Top hitter Corey Seager (rest) also isn’t in the lineup today. The Rangers’ 97 wRC+ L30Days ranks 20th in MLB.

- Based on Park Factor, Globe Life Field has ranked as the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Unless it’s further clarified by CWS manager Pedro Grifol, Crochet could very well regain a typical workload today, in which case he could easily shut down this sputtering Rangers lineup during his time on the mound.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith

Bargain Bat: Robbie Grossman

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), OAK

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Jorge Soler, SF | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/SS Romy Gonzalez, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF JJ Bleday, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

C Travis d’Arnaud, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

2B/OF Richie Palacios, TB | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Jake Cave, COL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

SS Max Schuemann, OAK | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Nacho Alvarez Jr., ATL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!