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Top DFS Offers 7/22/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A healthy nine-game main slate will get us rolling this week! On the surface, this looks like one of the trickier slates in recent memory. Some solid arms are taking the mound today, but many pitchers will draw some less-than-ideal match-ups or ballparks. Offensively, even with Coors Field in play once again, there aren’t a ton of hitters/stacks that I’m overly enticed by. Nonetheless, we’ll see if we can crack the code today and come up with some worthy recommendations! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CIN @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): Kind of a classic Atlanta summertime forecast here. Rain is in the forecast throughout the evening, but the coverage may be sparse enough to where they could avoid trouble altogether. Conversely, any storms firing off could develop into more widespread coverage and spark a delay or even a postponement (as we saw last Friday). It’s probably too early to make a definitive call here so my recommendation would be to just check the forecast closer to first pitch to see how things are shaping up.

• PHI @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): The current lean here is that any storms will hold off until after the game is played, but if things pop off earlier than expected, or if storms to the north move further south, that could lead to some trouble. I know it’s not very helpful right now but, like Atlanta, this is just another forecast that we’ll have to circle back to closer to first pitch to get a clearer idea of how things are going to shake out. The good news is these two games are the first two on the slate, so there will be plenty of options to late swap to if the outlook at either ballpark begins to look dicey.

• MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light winds blowing IN from center.

• BOS @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Light winds OUT to right/center around 5-10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | @ ATL

Reminder: Track the forecast here to make sure there won’t be any major trouble.

I’m not in love with any of the SP options in front of us today, but Hunter Greene gets a nod against my Braves for the strikeout upside alone. Greene’s 27.6% kRate is already one of the better marks on the slate, trailing only the talented lefty Cole Ragans (29.6% kRate). Over his last five starts, Greene has upped that kRate to 33.3%, which leads all SPs on the slate. The long ball plagued Greene over the first two seasons of his career, as he posted a 1.72 HR/9 Rate in 2022 and a 1.53 HR/9 Rate in 2023. However, he has allowed just 10 HRs across 110.1 IP this season, resulting in a strong 0.82 HR/9 Rate. Greene has also displayed some positive road splits -- on the road this season, he’s rocking a 2.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .160 opp AVG, and 0.58 HR/9 Rate. Compare those numbers to his still solid, but not as impressive home splits: 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .228 opp AVG, and 0.98 HR/9 Rate.

Flipping over to the match-up, the Braves were dealt yet another notable injury blow yesterday by way of a broken wrist to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Ozzie wasn’t exactly killing it lately, but he was still one of the better healthy bats in the Braves lineup. Against RHPs over the last month, Atlanta ranks 25th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ while also rocking a 25.8% kRate (4th highest). They’ve hit just .205 against RHPs with RISP in that same span as well. While they still have some guys who can knock the occasional HR out of the park, they’re just not a consistently good offense right now, and Greene hasn’t been surrendering many HRs anyway. For all of these reasons, Greene sets up as one of the most intriguing SPs on the slate.

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.4k | @ LAD

Is Snell back? Recent signs point toward “yes.” Since returning from his latest IL stint, Snell has made two starts (vs. TOR, vs. MIN) and has pitched 12 shutout innings while allowing just two hits and three walks and striking out 11 would-be batters. Snell’s last start against a strong Twins lineup was his most impressive of the season -- he took a perfect game into the seventh inning before giving up his lone hit of the outing, ultimately posting a final pitching line of 7.0 IP (on just 80 pitches), 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, and 8 K -- good for 31.2 DKFP/49 FDFP. Snell would have also earned the win were it not for a blown save by Camilo Doval. Snell has to face the talented Dodgers lineup this evening, and he still owns a poor 6.31 ERA across eight starts this season. But his 3.58 xERA is much more indicative of where his ERA “should” be, and he has still produced a rock-solid 26.6% kRate and 13.4% SwStr%. While he may continue to face some light workload restrictions this evening, Snell looks as healthy as he has all season and offers some real upside at these depressed DFS salaries.

The poor ERA and tricky match-up may cause many to hesitate on pulling the trigger on Snell, even though he’s dirt cheap for a pitcher of his caliber. The Dodgers are still putting up big numbers lately, but not so much against southpaw pitching. Over the last month against LHPs, the Dodgers are hitting just .217 (ranks 27th) with a .291 wOBA (26th), and 89 wRC+ (25th). For comparison, the Cubs have produced slightly better overall numbers against LHPs than the Dodgers in that same span. So, ask yourself, would you be willing to play Snell against the Cubs if he were matched up with them today? If so, then the Dodgers represent a similar match-up based on their recent lefty splits. Snell is still going to have some volatility to him, but he’s worth some shares at these price points.

Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHC

Myers has settled nicely into this Brewers rotation over the last ~6 weeks. Since June 7th (seven starts, 45.1 IP), Myers has procured a 1.79 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .201 AVG, 20.3% kRate, and 5.8% BB%. In five of those seven starts, he has allowed either zero or one run. Myers is far from a flamethrower and his “stuff” isn’t necessarily elite, but he has shown strong control of the strike zone, he’s not walking many batters, and he’s forcing mostly soft/medium contact. It’s also worth pointing out that Wrigley Field has ranked as the #5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season. When significant winds are blowing toward the outfield at Wrigley, it’s a different story, but the ballpark will feature light winds blowing in from center this evening.

The Cubs have been a very average offense with a 106 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days (ranks 15th), and their 24.3% rate is the 8th highest in MLB in that span. Their offensive numbers have been significantly worse at home in that same stretch, resulting in an 81 wRC+ and 26.1% kRate. So, if you’re in search of a cheaper SP and not willing to take on the risk that the aforementioned Snell provides, then Myers could turn out to be a solid value play.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: $10.9k | vs. ARI

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CIN (Monitor weather)

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAA

River Ryan (RHP), LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SF (Potential restrictions in his MLB debut)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

Non-Coors Stacks

Oakland Athletics vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

+ The A’s continue to stay white-hot at the plate. Over their last 11 games, they’ve hit .297 (1st) with a .919 OPS (1st), .391 wOBA (1st), .251 ISO (1st), and 161 wRC+ (1st).

+ Arrighetti has had some nice outings in his rookie campaign, but he’s been very inconsistent overall while struggling more on the road. In 41.2 IP on the road this season, Arrighetti has come away with a 6.70 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, .300 opp AVG, .383 opp wOBA, and 1.87 WHIP.

+ Outside of Brent Rooker, every other A’s bat in the projected lineup owns an affordable DFS salary.

+ There is some strong leverage to be had against a potentially high-owned Arrighetti (25% pOwn%).

+ The A’s have been more effective at home, where they have averaged 4.60 runs/gm (vs. 3.65 runs/gm away).

+ This should be a lower-owned stack. No hitter in the projected A’s lineup has above a 10% pOwn%.

- A’s: 3.9 implied runs (ranks T-6th lowest on the slate).

- The Astros have had a top-10 bullpen L30Days: 3.33 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and .201 opp AVG.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: JJ Bleday

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

+ Assad has struggled over his last five starts: 6.14 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, .341 opp AVG, .447 opp wOBA, 1.82 WHIP, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, and 17.0% kRate.

+ Assad’s statcast data from the last month are full of red (bad) figures: 36.7% LineDrive%, 43.3% HardContact%, 6.7% SoftContact%, and 94.8 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile).

-/+ The Brewers have been a middling offense vs. RHPs L30Days: .243 AVG, .698 OPS, .308 wOBA, .136 ISO, and 99 wRC+, however, they have scored at least eight runs in five of their last nine games.

-/+ The Cubs’ bullpen has posted an excellent 1.82 ERA L30Days, however, their 3.80 xFIP is much more mid-pack and suggests some regression is due.

-/+ Brewers: 4.3 implied runs (ranks 8th among non-Coors teams).

- Wrigley Field has been the #5 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio

Bargain Bat: Sal Frelick

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

+ Every hitter in the confirmed MIN lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Twins: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ Suarez has not been sharp over his L5Starts: 5.86 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, .308 opp AVG, .360 opp wOBA, 1.55 WHIP, and 16.7% kRate.

+ The Twins have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs L30Days: .298 AVG (4th), .834 OPS (5th), .361 wOBA (5th), and 137 wRC+ (5th).

+ The Twins have been the #6 home offense in MLB, averaging 4.91 runs/gm.

+ Based on Park Factor, Target Field has been the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+/- The Phillies’ bullpen has posted a 5.13 ERA L30Days (5th worst in MLB), but their 3.52 xFIP (5th best) in that span suggests some positive regression is due.

- The Twins will not be at 100% strength. Three of their best hitters (Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda) are currently on the IL.

- Suarez has been a strong SP for much of the season (2.76 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP) and, after getting 10 days off since his last start, he may bounce back to form.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, Willi Castro

Bargain Bat: Brooks Lee

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Yilber Diaz (RHP), ARI

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK; $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. River Ryan (RHP), LAD

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/SS Romy Gonzalez, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B/3B Brooks Lee, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK

OF JJ Bleday, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Jake Cave, COL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK

SS Max Schuemann, OAK | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!