Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

• LineStar’s 2024 MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide ⚾

Top DFS Offers 7/2/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - 50% Deposit Match up to $250 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following a quiet MLB Monday, we’ll get back to business with a sturdy 11-game Tuesday main slate! Pitching is a little top-heavy today but there will be a few guys worth taking some shots on out of the mid-range and value range. Coors Field is once again back in play (with two not-so-good SPs taking the mound) and 10 offenses on the slate will check in with at least a 4.5 implied run total. Plenty of ways to attack this one so let’s dive into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.0 O/U): Warm temps in the mid-80s but winds around 10 mph blowing IN from right will sort of make this more neutral hitting/pitching conditions.

• DET @ MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): A huge storm system will stay south of Minnesota so this game will just deal with some light, scattered showers that could miss the ballpark entirely. We’ll leave this one with a low chance of a delay.

• PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Any rain in the area should not arrive until after the game. 10-15 mph winds mostly blowing OUT to left, a bit right-to-left at times.

• TB @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): This will be the one game to pay the most attention to as far as weather is concerned. It looks as if the game should start dry, but a line of storms could move in during the middle innings. It’s possible they could play through some wet weather but the range of outcomes here is anywhere from the ballpark missing any storms entirely and the game plays completely fine, a lengthy delay, the game doesn’t complete nine innings, or an outright postponement. Just keep an eye on this forecast closer to first pitch before locking in any players.

• MIL @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Temps in the low-80s with winds mostly blowing OUT to left around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.4k | vs. SF

ReyLo heads into his 15th start of the season as the MLB’s ERA leader at 1.70. He has allowed more than two ERs in just one outing this season, and that was way back on April 30th against the Mariners on the road where he surrendered three ERs. Based on his 3.68 xFIP, it’s pretty unlikely that Lopez will maintain such a minuscule ERA throughout an entire season, but he’s showing no signs of slowing down. He’s currently in the midst of his best stretch of the year; over his last five starts, Lopez has procured a 1.61 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 92.5% Left-on-Base%, and 29.8% kRate. So he’s been continuing to pitch to a low ERA while also increasing his kRate, which is a still solid, but not spectacular 25.6% kRate on the season. The one real knock on Lopez is the fact that he doesn’t reach high pitch counts like many other top-end starters, generally, he’ll throw around 85-90 pitches or so per start. Since Lopez was used primarily as a reliever the last several seasons, Braves manager Brian Snitker keeps a short leash on Lopez once he gets into the 80s on his pitch count. But, as long as he has some economical innings, Lopez can routinely cover six full frames.

Getting to the match-up, the Giants are generally a so-so offense. They have plated at least five runs in nine of their last 14 games, but most of their production in that span has come against LHPs. Against RHPs L2Weeks, San Fran owns a lackluster .228 AVG (ranks 19th), .677 OPS (20th), .292 wOBA (20th), 92 wRC+ (20th), and 23.0% kRate (14th highest). Lopez may be due for a blowup start in the not-so-distant future but this doesn’t seem like the spot for it to happen. The Braves (-206 ML) check in as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate so we’ll like ReyLo’s chances of snagging a win bonus as well.

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. BAL

I don’t believe anyone loves to take a chance on a starting pitcher facing the explosive Orioles offense, but George Kirby’s DFS salaries, while not low, are enticing enough to take some shots on him tonight. To no real surprise, he’s been at his best when pitching at home (+50.0% more FPPG) in T-Mobile Park, the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB. Here is a quick rundown of Kirby’s home/road splits this season:

Home: 42.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .199 opp AVG, 28.7% kRate

Away: 57.0 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, .250 opp AVG, 21.0% kRate

The most glaring differences come in Kirby’s much lower home ERA and much higher home kRate. The match-up is what it is. You could look for any key offensive metric, both throughout the entire season and from recent weeks, and the O’s are going to rank top-five in every category. However, the Orioles are not immune to dud offensive performances, especially lately. They’ve scored two runs or fewer in five of their last nine games. They’re also coming in on a coast-to-coast travel day yesterday after playing Sunday Night Baseball against the Rangers, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they begin their West Coast road trip a bit sluggish at the plate. Also, with two quality arms taking the mound for both teams, this game owns a slate-low 7.0 run over/under. If you’re willing to take on some match-up risk, Kirby could end up paying off at these generous DFS salaries.

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | @ OAK

After dealing with an abdominal infection, Soriano will be making his first start in about three weeks. That means he’s likely going to face some pitch count restrictions but, unless announced otherwise, he should still be able to handle a mostly full workload. Like any other MLB starting pitcher, Soriano has had some bumps in the road but there has been more good than bad since he’s taken over as a starter in the Angels’ rotation. Over his last eight starts, Soriano has come away with an impressive 2.90 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, and 1.09 WHIP. His 20.3% kRate is not overly high but, at these salaries, we don’t need it to be. It’s also worth pointing out that Soriano has excelled on the road where he owns a 2.33 ERA across 46.1 IP this season, versus a 5.54 ERA across 26.0 IP at home. Soriano also ranks 2nd among all MLB pitchers (min. 40.0 IP) in GroundBall% (60.5%).

Of course, the key draw for Soriano is his match-up with the A’s. Sure, Oakland can pop off at the plate once in a while, but they’re generally going to be one of the best opponents a pitcher could ask for. Over the L2Weeks vs. RHPs, the A’s own a .222 AVG (ranks 24th), .644 OPS (23rd), .285 wOBA (23rd), .133 ISO (24th), 88 wRC+ (21st), and 28.9% kRate (2nd highest). Oakland also has a 47.0% GroundBall% in that span (6th highest), which plays into Soriano’s groundball-inducing strength. Prior to his injury, Soriano had cleared at least 6.0 IP in five consecutive starts. It may be difficult for him to do that if he’s limited to around 80 pitches or so but, again, it’s not as if he’s been on the shelf for months with an injury. He could very well step back into a full workload while drawing one of the best match-ups on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k | @ TEX

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CIN

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ SEA

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DET

Michael Mercado (RHP), PHI | DK: $7k, FD: $5.7k | @ CHC

Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. LAA

Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF | DK: $6k, FD: $6k | @ ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), MIL

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

+ Dodgers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Nelson has been a highly erratic pitcher this season -- good in some starts, but mostly bad. Across his 13 starts, he has come away with a 5.69 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 90.4 mph average exit velo, and 43.3% HardHit%.

+ Nelson has allowed 15 barreled balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile) along with a high 90.8 mph average exit velo, 32.0% LineDrive%, and a low 10.3% SoftContact%.

+ Against RHPs this season, the Dodgers rank 4th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+.

+ Over the last month, the D-Backs bullpen has posted some not-so-great numbers: 4.89 ERA, 4.74 xFIP (2nd worst in MLB), 1.39 WHIP, 17.9% kRate (2nd lowest in MLB), and 1.52 HR/9 Rate (2nd highest in MLB).

- The Dodgers are back at home where they’ve been marginally less effective, averaging 4.78 runs/gm (vs. 5.34 runs/gm away).

- The Dodgers still have two key offensive contributors on the IL (Mookie Betts & Max Muncy) and the other big bats that you’ll want in LAD stacks are going to be very pricey.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Miguel Rojas

Kansas City Royals vs. Zach Littell (RHP), TB

Reminder: Monitor the weather here as there is some moderate PPD risk or a chance that this game may not play a full nine innings.

+ Royals: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ After a lengthy offensive slump, the Royals have been finding some success at the plate lately. Against RHPs over the last week (167 PA), the Royals are hitting .273 with an .849 OPS, .360 wOBA, .240 ISO, and 132 wRC+.

+ Littell has been much worse on the road (-64.4% less FPPG) where he owns a 5.13 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, .338 opp AVG, and 17.1% kRate this season.

+ Littell’s statcast data from the last month is full of red (bad) figures: 11 barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile), 201.6 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 10%), 90.7 mph average exit velo (bottom 20%), 29.9% LineDrive%, and 40.2% HardContact%.

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Royals have been the #2 home offense, averaging 5.20 runs/gm (vs. 3.80 runs/gm away).

-/+ The Rays’ bullpen has performed at an above-average level L2Weeks, most notably allowing a low .184 opp AVG while boasting a 26.8% kRate.

- As noted, the Royals have been slumping at the plate for the better part of the last month so we’ll be hoping their bats continue to trend upward instead of reverting back to struggling offensively.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Hunter Renfroe

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the Phillies lineup have a ≤10% pOwn%.

+ Wesneski has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this season and he hasn’t been great as a starter -- in 19 career starts, he owns a lackluster 4.04 ERA and 4.13 xFIP while giving up plenty of HRs (1.60 HR/9 Rate).

+ Wesneski has allowed a 209.4 feet average batted ball distance L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Phillies vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .291 AVG, .830 OPS, .361 wOBA, .180 ISO, and 135 wRC+.

+ Solid HR conditions at Wrigley today with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left for most of the night (a bit right-to-left at times).

- The Phillies have three major contributors on the IL (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto) which is a major reason why a Phillies stack shouldn’t gain much attention today.

- The Phillies have not been as effective on the road, averaging 4.63 runs/gm (vs. an MLB-leading 5.27 runs/gm at home).

- The Cubs’ bullpen ranks top-10 in most key metrics over the L2Weeks.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 11.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Brandon Marsh MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!