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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We make the return from the All-Star Break and, while a five-day hiatus isn’t an overly long period of time to most, if you’re used to grinding MLB DFS on the daily, it may as well have been five months! Maybe a slight overexaggeration, but we’ll now have non-stop MLB action until the playoffs arrive in the fall! We get back to business with a sizable 11-game main slate this evening.

Overall, this slate will likely side in favor of pitching. Many teams will start the second half at, or near the top, of their rotations but you also have to take into account the routine of baseball. Starting pitchers are used to taking five days or so off for rest in between starts. For many big league hitters, going five days without seeing live-action MLB pitching can throw off the ol’ mechanics ever so slightly, and it may take certain guys a couple of days before they can quite literally “get back into the swing of things.” On the flip side, for some hitters, the break may have come at an opportune time -- perhaps they were struggling at the plate in the days/weeks leading up to the ASB so a “mental reset” was a welcomed arrival, or maybe these handful of days off gave them a chance to lick their wounds and heal some bumps and bruises. But, in general, don’t be surprised if the next couple of days results in some lower-scoring affairs. The good news is baseball is back and we have plenty to discuss! Let’s hop to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• STL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): A few scattered showers moving through the area this evening. More than likely, they’ll avoid any trouble, but just be aware that a delay is a possibility here.

• SF @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Chance for a delay, more likely of the late start variety, as a bit of rain clears the area around first pitch. Not a huge concern.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. TB

I’m sure many Yankees fans were sweating the slow start from Cole, who returned from the IL to make his season debut one month ago today on June 19th. However, his last start, which was by far his best outing up to this point in 2024 when factoring in the quality of opponent, should have instilled quite a bit of confidence. Cole held the dangerous Orioles lineup to just one run on five hits and a walk across 6.0 IP while throwing 106 pitches and striking out seven -- good for 25.9 DKFP/46 FDFP. These are the sort of outings we’ve come accustomed to seeing out of Cole over the years (even after the “sticky stuff” controversy) and, if he is truly “back” then these quality starts with 7+ Ks should begin to be the norm rather than an outlier. Cole’s slow start is also a contributing factor to keeping his DFS salaries fairly low for an ace of his caliber.

If Cole is back to where he can shut down the Orioles, then he should have no major problems against the Rays. Tampa Bay has had some decent offensive stretches this season, but they’ve been inconsistent overall and limped into the ASB in a slump. Since June 28th vs. RHPs (396 PA), the Rays mustered just a .202 AVG, .619 OPS, .278 wOBA, and 83 wRC+, ranking them 28th or worse in each offensive metric. Their 24.5% kRate was also the 9th highest in that span. In 209 PA versus the current Rays roster, Cole has certainly had the upper hand as he has held them to a .208 AVG and .264 wOBA while rocking a sturdy 29.2% kRate. The Yankees (-168 ML) check in as heavy home favorites and, if the rust is indeed all shaken off, Cole should make for a strong spend-up option today.

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.8k | @ MIA

Outside of a rough start against a tough Phillies lineup on June 8th, Manaea has been cruising consistently dating all the way back to mid-May. In that 11-game stretch, Manaea has put together a 3.54 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, .209 opp AVG, and 26.2% kRate. While the ERA/xFIP from that span haven’t been spectacular, Manaea held opponents to 3 ER or fewer in 9-of-11 starts. And the strikeout rate has been great, particularly for a pitcher priced in the mid-range as he is today.

Any decent pitcher is going to fall into consideration versus this awful Marlins team, and Manaea has been more than decent in recent months. Miami has been slightly worse against righties lately, but they’ve by no means been good against southpaw pitching either. Versus LHPs L30Days, Miami ranks 22nd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while posting a 24.4% kRate (10th highest). Manaea went into the ASB on the heels of a ceiling performance (28.2 DKFP/49 FDFP vs. COL) and he should have comparable upside in this evening’s match-up.

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | vs. LAA

Sears is a volatile pitcher but, at his bottom-of-the-barrel DFS salaries, he’s going to catch some interest today. We’re sectioning off a small sample size, but looking at his last three starts, Sears has procured a 2.16 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, .180 opp AVG, and 29.9% kRate. One of those three starts came against this same sputtering Angels team where he threw five shutout innings, allowing just two hits, and a walk, and he struck out six while earning the win. He didn’t quite make it deep enough to land a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER), since he was pulled after he hit 95 pitches, but we know the A’s aren’t afraid to give him a longer leash, evidenced by the 114 pitches he threw in the start against Boston just before the break.

Clearly, Sears can handle himself against this Angels team evidenced by his last start against them, and it’s easy to see why. Over the last month against LHPs, the Angels have been utterly miserable at the plate, hitting for a .139 AVG, .451 OPS, .211 wOBA, .074 ISO, 32 wRC+, and 25.2% kRate. That isn’t an extensive sample size, at just 123 plate appearances, but the Angels have just 15 hits against lefties in that stretch -- 11 of those hits being largely harmless singles. If you need a cheap arm that has flashed some real upside lately and draws a positive match-up, Sears fits the bill.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ TOR

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.4k | @ ATL

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.1k | @ SEA

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.9k | vs. CWS

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Mets vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

+ Mets: 4.3 implied runs (ranks 6th among non-Coors teams… and honestly seems a little low).

+ Cabrera had a two-month layoff on the IL due to a shoulder injury, and has made just two starts since returning, but he’s been terrible both before and after the injury. Across his last five starts, he has come away with an 11.42 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and a massive 4.20 HR/9 Rate.

+ In his two starts since returning, Cabrera has allowed a 92.7 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile) and 235.8 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 5%).

+ Mets vs. RHPs L30Days: .781 OPS (4th), .338 wOBA (5th), .216 ISO (3rd), and 123 wRC+ (3rd).

- The Marlins bullpen has posted a 3.35 xFIP L30Days -- 2nd best in MLB.

- While Cabrera does have that awful 11+ ERA over his last five starts, it is backed up by a significantly better 3.98 xFIP and 29.8% kRate, suggesting that he has pitched much better than his ERA would indicate.

Favorite NYM Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos

Bargain Bat: Jose Iglesias

Oakland Athletics vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

+ A’s: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ For once, the A’s are more than just the sort of “low-owned stack that just might work out.” Since July 1st, they’ve been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs: .817 OPS (7th), .350 wOBA (7th), .234 ISO (4th), and 133 wRC+ (7th).

+ Canning has been a very low-end starter this season, particularly over the last month or so. Spanning his previous seven starts, Canning has posted a 5.08 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, .342 opp wOBA, and 14.6% kRate. Canning’s low kRate is a big plus for the A’s, who still strike out a lot despite playing better overall offensively.

+ The A’s have been notably better at home this season, where they’ve averaged 4.34 runs/gm (vs. 3.65 runs/gm away). One has to assume it’s due to the electric atmosphere at Oakland Coliseum.

+ The A’s have called up their top overall prospect SS Jacob Wilson, who should make his MLB debut today. Wilson is a high-contact hitter who, across 183 plate appearances between Double-A/Triple-A this season, has slashed .427/.459/.673 with a wRC+ near 200.

+ Outside of Brent Rooker, every other A’s bat lands a very affordable DFS price tag.

-/+ The Angels bullpen has put up great surface stats over the last month, with a 2.95 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .184 opp AVG, but their 4.30 xFIP is the 5th worst in that span, suggesting regression is due.

- I wouldn’t be surprised if an A’s stack is somewhat popular -- a few hitters check in with a 10+% pOwn%.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: Jacob Wilson (only available on DK) and/or Zack Gelof

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

+ Every hitter in the projected Astros lineup has a < 8% pOwn% -- eight are ≤ 5% pOwn%.

+ Castillo is a great pitcher but he has been largely inconsistent this season. He either puts together a strong outing, or a bad one, without much in between. So this stack is largely contingent on which version of Castillo shows up tonight.

+ Based on their 116 wRC+ (ranks 8th), the Astros have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month.

+ The Astros have a pretty strong track record versus Castillo. In 83 PA against him, Houston owns a .272 AVG, .319 wOBA, and .185 ISO -- not spectacular numbers, but solid.

+ The Astros are a tough team to strike out. Their 18.8% kRate vs. RHPs is the 3rd lowest in MLB.

-/+ The Mariners' bullpen has been fairly league-average over the last month.

- Castillo has had a better track record at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. At home, he has put up a 2.98 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, and 27.5% kRate. On the road, he has posted a middling 4.11 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, and 20.9% kRate.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Joey Loperfido

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

C Shea Langeliers, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B Ben Rice, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

2B Colt Keith, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

SS Jacob Wilson, OAK | DK: $3.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Jose Iglesias, NYM | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Angel Martinez, CLE | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

C Carson Kelly, DET | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

3B/OF Adam Frazier, KC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Chris Taylor, LAD | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Brandon Nimmo MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Colt Keith MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!