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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Plenty of action on the diamond awaits on this evening’s hefty 12-game main slate! This slate will provide quite a few high-quality arms, plenty of intriguing stacks, and ample value bats and one-off hitters. We will need to keep an eye on a few ballparks where weather could cause some issues as there is a lot of rain moving along the East Coast but, other than that, it’s full speed ahead. Let’s jump right to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): There is rain around essentially all day and it may very well extend into the evening. The hope is that things lighten up or clear out entirely around first pitch. I could see anywhere from a late start to a postponement here so we’ll need to keep a close eye on this game.

• MIA @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few scattered showers and storms may be in the general area this evening so there will be some minor risk of a delay here but the game will play nine innings regardless.

• KC @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): The same storm system moving along the east coast has a chance of bringing some rain up to Boston, which will put a delay in play. There’s also a good chance that the rain will miss the ballpark entirely and hold off to the west. A postponement here is not a major concern. Winds OUT to left at 10 mph.

• COL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Similar outlook as Baltimore. Rain will be around but should hopefully be clearing around, or soon after, the scheduled first pitch. A “late start & play” seems to be a pretty likely outcome but we can’t rule out a PPD entirely either. This will be another forecast to monitor as we get closer to game time. Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

• CHC @ STL (8:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-end chance of a delay with a few stray showers in the area.

• SEA @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | vs. PIT

I don’t believe we need to overthink this one too much. Crochet should find his way into some lineups due to his massive upside that he brings to the table in most match-ups. Crochet dropped the ball against an awful Marlins team last week but we’ll expect an immediate bounce back tonight, especially now that he’s back pitching in the Southside. Crochet has been “pretty dang good” on the road, but he’s been an absolute monster at home. Here’s a quick rundown of his home/road splits:

Home: 64.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.84 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 0.42 HR/9 Rate, 38.2% kRate

Road: 41.0 IP, 4.17 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.54 HR/9 Rate, 29.6% kRate

The long ball has plagued Crochet on the road this season, but not so much when he’s at home. Seeing that eye-popping 38.2% kRate in the home splits and absurdly low 1.84 xFIP is pretty wild as well.

The Pirates have not been super strikeout-prone against LHPs lately, with a fairly average 21.8% kRate over the last month -- compared to a 24.7% kRate against lefties on the season. However, their overall offense has been nearly nonexistent versus LHPs L30Days with a .212 AVG, .597 OPS, .264 wOBA, and 68 wRC+. Only the Angels have been worse in each category. The White Sox (-172 ML) are a rare heavy favorite this evening and we should anticipate another big day out of Crochet.

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k | @ BOS

Reminder: Monitor the weather for this game.

I was surprised to see Ragans priced this low on DraftKings. He’s had a couple of lackluster outings in recent weeks but he’s been generally solid for much of the season. Spanning his 19 starts, Ragans has procured a 3.28 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 29.7% kRate, and 14.6% SwStr%. His elite swinging strike rate is only bested by the aforementioned Garrett Crochet on this slate.

As some folks have said in the LineStar chat/player comments, it’s been a big Red Sox chalk week as they’ve been a relatively hot offense that has drawn some advantageous match-ups recently. But, as many adamant MLB DFS players know, the Red Sox have been very “attackable” with quality lefty pitchers. Boston has a slightly above-average 108 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month, but they’ve also posted an MLB-high 29.6% kRate in that span. That’s venturing toward “Mariners kRate vs. RHPs” territory. Ragans may very well surrender a few hits and a couple of runs, but he also has some realistic double-digit strikeout potential in this match-up. He’ll still be in play on FanDuel, but he’s almost a can’t-miss bargain at $8,500 on DraftKings.

Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. MIA

There is not much to love in the value pitching department so we’ll try the roll of the dice on Spiers again. He failed in a big way against a beatable Detroit team in his last time out, giving up four runs across just 4.2 IP on eight hits (three HRs) and two walks while only striking out three. That being said, he still owns a respectable 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his last five outings. The kRate in that span hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been awful either at 19.8% and he has only allowed a 5.0% Walk Rate as well.

It probably goes without saying, but the main draw for Spiers, aside from his low-end DFS salaries, will be his match-up with the meager Marlins. Miami ranks 27th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ versus RHPs L2Weeks, and their 27.1% kRate checks in as the third-highest. The Reds (-181) are big favorites today and, prior to his last game, Spiers had posted back-to-back quality starts. Expectations won’t be sky-high, but we’ll be content with another quality start out of him this evening with perhaps five or six strikeouts along the way.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | vs. CHC

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. WAS

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.8k | vs. COL (Monitor weather)

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Note: I’m running a little behind schedule today so I’ll be organizing the stack section into a brief write-up format.

New York Mets vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

Mets: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate)

It’s a good spot for the Mets to take on an inexperienced pitcher making his second-ever MLB start, and first MLB start on the road. Gordon got hit hard by the Royals in his debut -- eight hits (two HRs) led to five ER across 6.1 IP, albeit at Coors Field. Gordon has not been great in Triple-A this season, posting a 5.35 ERA, 5.50 xFIP, .299 opp AVG, 1.46 WHIP, and a low 18.5% kRate. Home runs have also been a recurring issue for him with a 2.41 HR/9 Rate across 33.2 Triple-A IP. The Mets bats have cooled off against RHPs lately but I’d expect some guys to get to Gordon and a bad Rockies bullpen. I’m also surprised to see not much ownership is landing here with every Mets bat under 10% pOwn%.

Favorite NYM Bats: Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez

Bargain Bat: Jose Iglesias

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jackson Rutledge (RHP), WAS

Brewers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate)

Another stack against an inexperienced righty… why not? Rutledge has only pitched one MLB inning this season, which came way back on May 14th. He had a cup of coffee with the big league club at the end of last season as well and, across his 21.0 IP at the MLB level, he has come away with a poor 6.86 ERA, 5.98 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .310 opp AVG, 14.1% kRate, and 2.14 HR/9 Rate. Rutledge has been working as a traditional starter down in Triple-A this season and things have not been going well for him there either -- across 16 starts (71.2 IP), he owns a 6.66 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, and .275 opp AVG. The Brewers have not been dominating RHPs lately, but I do like the fact that they’re at home where they’ve been the #3 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.15 runs/gm. And, much like the aforementioned Mets stack, I’m surprised to see low projected ownership on the Brew Crew with every hitter having a < 7% pOwn%. I get it’s a huge slate and ownership will be very spread out… still a mild shocker!

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, Willy Adames

Bargain Bat: Sal Frelick/Jackson Chourio

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

+ Twins: Only one player in the MIN lineup has above a 3% pOwn%, and it’s Brooks Lee at just 9% pOwn%.

Once again, very surprised to see the low projected ownership on this team as well. This time, it’s not due to facing an inexperienced starter -- Kyle Harrison debuted in 2023 and has 15 starts/80.2 IP to his name this season. Instead, it’s due to the fact that the Twins have been an absolute nightmare for LHPs. Over the last month against LHPs, the Twins are hitting .372 (1st) with a 1.052 OPS (1st), .445 wOBA (1st), .246 ISO (2nd), 196 wRC+ (1st), and 14.8% kRate (3rd lowest). Just some monster numbers from a pretty significant sample size (236 plate appearances). Kyle Harrison hasn’t shown much upside as of late and he has had some issues on the road, where he owns a poor 4.96 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, and 1.45 HR/9 rate this season. Even if it were Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, or some other highly talented left-handed starter on the mound, the Twins would still be worth some stack shares simply due to how elite they’ve been against southpaw pitching in recent weeks.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda

Bargain Bat: Brooks Lee/Manuel Margot

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jackson Rutledge (RHP), WAS

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), PIT

1B/OF Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), MIA

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

3B Alex Bregman, HOU | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ben Rice, NYY | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

C Tyler Stephenson, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), MIA

3B Brooks Lee, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Manuel Margot, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jackson Rutledge (RHP), WAS

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

2B/3B Jose Iglesias, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

OF Rece Hinds, CIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), MIA

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!