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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Pick 'Em 7/11 | Running Down a Small Six-Game Thursday Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Pick 'Em 7/11 | Running Down a Small Six-Game Thursday Slate!
July 11th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Thursday's MLB Action
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
It’s a travel day/off day for many teams so, following the handful of games taking place in the afternoon, we’ll be left with a modest six-game main slate this evening. Keep in mind that this slate will get underway at 6:05 ET! Overall, this looks like a quality small slate with a nice balance between pitching and hitting/stack options. Weather also won’t cause any worry across the board, which is always nice! Due to the earlier start time for this slate, I’m going to keep things fairly short today in an effort to get this newsletter pushed out ASAP. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
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While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!
Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
LAD @ PHI (6:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Warm temps in the 80s. Winds mostly right-to-left around 10 mph, a bit OUT to right at times. Slight bump to bats.
OAK @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10.0 O/U): Warm with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left/center.
SEA @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k | @ ARI
It can be tough to get “different” on these smaller slates but rolling with Max Fried could be one way to construct some more unique builds. Among the top-priced arms on this slate, Fried easily has the lowest projected ownership at 10% DraftKings/2% FanDuel. He hasn’t been lighting it up lately but, in his defense, he’s had a few difficult match-ups to contend with. It doesn’t hurt that he’s on the road pitching this evening as he’s been a bit of a road warrior. A quick view of his home/road splits from this season:
Home: 43.0 IP, 3.56 ERA, .291 opp AVG, 1.44 WHIP, 17.7% kRate
Road: 59.0 IP, 2.90 ERA, .174 opp AVG, 0.93 WHIP, 23.9% kRate
So we’re seeing a fairly significant drop in Fried’s ERA, opp AVG, and WHIP along with a noticeable increase in kRate when he’s taken the mound in enemy territory.
The D-Backs do not represent an easy match-up for Fried. Against LHPs L30Days, they own a strong .283 AVG, .774 OPS, and 118 wRC+. They do have an above-average 22.9% kRate in that span, however. Fried does rely on getting a lot of groundball outs, and while Arizona does have the 8th lowest Groundball% vs. LHPs L30Days, they’ve also managed a 6.8% HR/FB Rate in that span. So, when they get under a ball against a lefty, it hasn’t been leaving the park very often. Fried may need one or two well-timed double plays at some point tonight to bail him out of a tricky spot but he has as much upside as any other arm on the slate and should provide some leverage from an ownership standpoint.
Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | vs. NYY
This is another play that doesn’t come without some risk. Baz made his first MLB start in almost exactly two years last Friday against the Rangers. Outside of a three-run third inning, Baz looked pretty impressive and he came away with a quality start on 92 pitches. It was a bit of a surprise to see Baz throw those 92 pitches in his first start back, but he did have plenty of time to build back up his strength and conditioning by way of 10 starts and 39.1 IP in Triple-A this year. Across his 46.1 IP at the MLB level, Baz has shown some nice strikeout upside with a 28.3% kRate and 13.5% SwStr% to go along with a quality 3.29 xFIP.
Baz will face off with the Yankees, who continue to battle through a serious slump. They are 6-16 over their last 22 games and, in that span against RHPs, they’re hitting for just a .225 AVG (ranks 27th), .696 OPS (23rd), .305 wOBA (22nd), and 99 wRC+ (20th). They haven’t been striking out a ton but roughly a league average rate at 21.6% during that same span. It’s fair to assume that Baz still has some rust to shake off at the MLB level but this Yankees offense isn’t scaring many opposing pitchers lately. Baz is modestly priced and we’ll see if he can provide some value with another quality start performance.
Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. SEA
Kochanowicz is not in the FanDuel player pool so this will clearly be a “DraftKings SP2 Only” play. Kochanowicz is arriving straight from Double-A to make his MLB debut so, it probably goes without saying, but there will be some sizable risk attached here as he takes the big leap by skipping Triple-A entirely. But he comes in as a top-rated prospect in the Angels’ farm system -- he’s the #7 LAA prospect via MLB.com and #13 LAA prospect via FanGraphs. Kochanowicz’s Double-A numbers may not blow you away, with his 4.55 ERA, 20.1% kRate, and .257 opp AVG across 91.0 IP -- however, his lackluster ERA is backed up by a much stronger 3.30 xFIP, he hasn’t given up many home runs (0.69 HR/9 Rate), and, what he lacks in huge strikeout ability, he makes up for by inducing a ton of groundballs (62.3% Groundball%).
The major key here is that Kochanowicz is a $4,000 starting pitcher, who isn’t serving as strictly an opener, and he’ll get to debut against the strikeout-prone Mariners team (34.6% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks) that does not hit for average. We don’t need an all-time great debut out of him to snag some nice value and sliding any $4k pitcher into your SP2 slot always opens up a massive amount of roster flexibility.
Other Pitchers to Consider
Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | vs. OAK
Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k | @ LAA
Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAD
Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CHC
Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. MIA
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Boston Red Sox vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK
+ Red Sox: 5.6 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).
+ Boston struggled against a lefty starter yesterday but we’ll go back to the well here now that they’ll get a crack at another lackluster righty in Luis Medina. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Red Sox have produced a .281 AVG (3rd), .841 OPS (1st), .360 wOBA (1st), .212 ISO (4th), and 130 wRC+ (2nd).
+ Medina has held his own in a few outings this season, but he is by no means a high-quality MLB starter. Across his seven 2024 starts, Medina has posted a 4.37 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, 15.9% kRate, and 11.5% BB%.
+ Great hitting conditions in Boston again today with warm temps and 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left/center.
+ The A’s bullpen owns an MLB-worst 4.74 xFIP L30Days.
- Predictably, Boston is going with an LHB-heavy lineup today with a RHP on the mound. However, Medina has shown some strong reverse splits, meaning he has been noticeably better against lefty bats than righty bats. Medina vs. LHBs this season: .221 opp AVG, .293 opp wOBA, .059 opp ISO, 1.10 WHIP, and 1.80 ERA. However, he has been extremely lucky based on his poor 5.36 xFIP vs. LHBs.
Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela
Bargain Bat: Masataka Yoshida
Houston Astros vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA
+ Astros: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).
+ Munoz had a couple of solid outings to start his 2024 campaign, but he has been downright awful since then. Over his last seven starts, Munoz has come away with a 6.48 ERA, 8.66 FIP, 5.93 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .419 opp wOBA, 3.50 HR/9 Rate, 16.9% kRate, and 13.6% BB%.
+ Munoz statcast data L30Days: 7 barreled balls (bottom 15th percentile), 90.3 mph average exit velo (bottom 20%), 191.3 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 20%), and a 26.9% LineDrive%.
+ The Astros rank 7th or better vs. RHPs L2Weeks in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate.
+ The Astros have been much better at home, where they’ve averaged 5.14 runs/gm (vs. 4.43 runs/gm away).
- The Marlins bullpen has been surprisingly strong -- their 3.58 xFIP L30Days is the 3rd best in MLB.
- The Astros may not have the services of their top power bat in Yordan Alvarez (hip/day-to-day) who was removed from yesterday’s game with hip tightness, and they continue to play without another top hitter in Kyle Tucker (leg/IL).
Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez (if available), Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
Bargain Bat: Joey Loperfido and/or Jon Singleton
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Atlanta Braves vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI
+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Braves lineup have a ≤ 7% pOwn%.
+ The Braves offense is slowly emerging from their slump after scoring at least five runs in six consecutive games. They still haven’t been great against RHPs, but they’re finding a way to put up some runs.
+ Pfaadt L30Days: 10 barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile) and 90.8 mph average exit velo (bottom 15%).
+ Against Pfaadt’s three primary pitches (four-seamer, sweeper, sinker) from RHPs, the Braves rank 1st with a 50.1% HardHit% and 2nd with a .371 xwOBA.
+ The D-Backs bullpen has allowed a 1.61 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks.
- Strikeouts have been an issue against RHPs for the Braves offense: 27.4% kRate L2Weeks (3rd highest in MLB).
- The Braves own an 83 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, ranking 26th in MLB.
- Braves: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-4th lowest on the slate).
Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Jarred Kelenic
Bargain Bat: Sean Murphy
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI
OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB
3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK
SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Anthony Banda (LHP), LAD
OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA
2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL
3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI
OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS
2B/3B Jordan Westburg, BAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC
C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA
OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU
1B/3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY
C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA
OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings
2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK; $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL
1B Michael Busch, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL
1B Ben Rice, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB
OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK
C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI
2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS
3B/SS Amed Rosario, TB | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY
OF Austin Hays, BAL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC
1B Jon Singleton, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA
OF Joey Loperfido, HOU | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA
OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
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⚾️ Home Run Calls ⚾️
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- Like & Retweet this postToday's Picks:
@ShannonOnSports- Aaron Judge
@flattyler83- Tyler O'Neill
@Ryan_Humphries- Yordan Alvarez… x.com/i/web/status/1…— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
7:32 PM • Jul 11, 2024
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.
Best of luck out there today, everyone!
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