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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got all-day MLB action popping off today and, depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll be looking at either a 10-game (DraftKings) or nine-game (FanDuel) main slate. The only difference is that FanDuel will be excluding game two of the Royals @ Cardinals doubleheader while it remains on the DraftKings main slate. Unlike yesterday, today’s main slate will not be plagued by poor weather and we should expect every game to likely play without any issues. I’d say pitching is lacking on this slate as there are no true aces on the board but, instead, a slew of middle/back-of-the-rotation arms. That fact, along with some favorable ballpark conditions, will lead to quite a few match-ups that possess high totals. Six of this evening’s games are being pinned with at least a 9.0 run over/under, which we don’t see all too often. So this sets up to be a pretty wild slate. Strap in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAD @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Any rain should hold off until after the game but we’ll still be slightly wary of a late-inning delay here in case it arrives earlier than expected, or if the game happens to last longer than usual. Mid-80s temps, humid, and winds around 15 mph blowing OUT to left will give a bump to bats.

• OAK @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10.0 O/U): 10+ mph winds OUT to left. Warm & humid. Bump to bats.

• WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): 15-20 mph winds OUT to left. Warm & humid. Bump to bats in what is traditionally a very pitcher-friendly ballpark.

• COL @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Minuscule chance of a late start/early delay. Not a huge concern. Cooler temps here in the mid-60s but more winds, around 10-15 mph, blowing OUT to center.

• TEX @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MIA

To preface, Valdez is more generously priced on DraftKings, where he is the seventh-most expensive pitcher, as opposed to the second-most expensive arm on FanDuel. Regardless, he’s in play on both sites due to the scarcity of high-end SPs on this slate. Valdez has been quite volatile over the last few weeks and, really, for the entire season. But we know he has an elite ceiling, especially when he’s handed an advantageous match-up like the one he’ll have today. Valdez will be pitching at home today, where he’s been a tad more reliable. Across 43.2 IP at home, he has come away with a 3.71 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 19.8% kRate, 29.8% HardContact%, and a huge 63.7% Groundball%. The strikeouts have been down for Valdez this season but he continues to be among the best groundball pitchers in baseball which can often allow him to pitch deep into games.

Valdez will take on a Marlins offense that simply doesn’t have a ton of firepower. Against LHPs over the last month, Miami ranks 26th or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ and their 24.7% kRate is the 9th highest in MLB during that stretch. They’ve also posted the third-highest Groundball% vs. LHPs in that span, which plays right into Valdez’s strength. The Marlins are averaging an MLB-worst 2.98 runs/gm on the road and the Astros (-230 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate. While the results haven’t been great for Valdez lately, this is one of the best spots he could ask for, so we’ll anticipate a strong outing from him this evening.

Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. PIT

Myers didn’t get off to the best start to his rookie campaign, but there has been much more good to discuss than bad as of late. Spanning his last six starts dating back to June 7th (37.1 IP), Myers has procured a 2.17 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, .212 opp AVG, .259 opp wOBA, 0.99 WHIP, 20.1% kRate, and 6.3% BB%. The 3.92 xFIP does suggest that he has been a bit fortunate and is due for some regression, but it’s far from a horrible number.

The Pirates just put a spanking on the Brewers in their series opener yesterday, scoring 12 runs on 11 hits, including four home runs. But this is the same team that scored two runs or fewer in five of their last 11 games, and they may be without one of their most dangerous hitters, Oneil Cruz, who is “day-to-day” with a hamstring injury. Against RHPs over the last month, the Pirates have rendered a very average 101 wRC+ to go along with an above-average 24.1% kRate (9th highest in MLB). They do have some power in their lineup, even if Cruz is out, but they do not hit for average. If Myers can keep the ball inside the field of play, then he could emerge as a quality SP option out of the $7k range. The Brewers (-162 ML) are also among the heaviest favorites of the day, so we’ll like Myers’ chances of snagging the win bonus as well.

Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. COL

Montas hasn’t been pitching perfectly, but he’s been holding his own against some strong opponents in recent weeks, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his last four outings against the Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Brewers. What was far and away his best start of the season came against this same Rockies team AT Coors Field where he threw seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit, and two walks, and he struck out nine -- good for 36.0 DKFP/58.0 FDFP. Hoping for history to repeat itself, especially based on a one-game sample size, is a tall ask. But, for where he’s priced, we’re just looking for a quality start (plus a win) out of Montas with a handful of strikeouts along the way.

Facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is obviously where you want them as a pitcher. They have had 258 plate appearances over the last month against RHPs when playing on the road. In that split, Colorado has mustered a meager .160 AVG, .493 OPS, .215 wOBA, 36 wRC+, and 27.9% kRate… awful stuff. Great American Ballpark is traditionally a great hitter’s park, and there will be some 10-15 mph winds blowing out tonight. But, it is worth mentioning that Montas has surrendered just two home runs across 37.0 IP when pitching at home, resulting in a small 0.49 HR/9 Rate. The Reds (-177 ML) are another heavily favored team and, while Montas is far from an incredible starting pitcher, he should do enough to keep Cincy in line for the win. We may not be getting massive upside out of Montas, but I do like his chances of surpassing the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold in this spot.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.1k | vs. TOR

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9k | vs. OAK

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ SF

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: N/A | @ STL (DK Main Slate Only)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

+ Reds: 5.2 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Freeland has not pitched much this season, just 35.1 IP across seven starts, but he has been surprisingly much worse on the road than he has been at the hitter-haven Coors Field where he owns a 1.50 ERA across 18.0 IP. In his 17.1 IP on the road, he has struggled mightily to an 11.94 ERA, 5.69 xFIP, .407 opp AVG, .475 opp wOBA, 2.37 WHIP, 2.08 HR/9 Rate, and 11.0% kRate.

+ In 63 PA versus Freeland, the current Reds roster owns a .327 AVG, .401 wOBA, .420 xwOBA, and a low 15.9% kRate.

+ 10-15 mph winds are blowing out to center at Great American Ballpark tonight.

+ Even when accounting for the innings they have to pitch at Coors Field, the Rockies bullpen has been awful over the last month: 7.30 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, .301 opp AVG, 1.72 WHIP, and 17.4% kRate.

- The Reds have not hit lefties well over the last month. Their 79 wRC+ vs. LHPs during that span ranks them 25th in MLB.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India

Bargain Bat: Rece Hinds

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Mets: 5.2 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ The Mets have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs over the last month: .828 OPS (4th), .356 wOBA (5th), .226 ISO (4th), and 136 wRC+ (4th).

+ Picking on Patrick Corbin is nothing new but he’ll head into his 19th start of the season with a 5.49 ERA, 6.23 xERA, 1.53 WHIP, 15.6% kRate, 91.4 mph average exit velo, and 48.2% HardHit%.

+ The division rivals have extensive history with each other. In 244 PA versus the current Mets roster, Corbin has allowed a .309 AVG and .389 wOBA.

+ Corbin has allowed eight barreled balls L30Days (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Citi Field is generally much more of a pitcher-friendly park but strong 15-20 mph winds blowing out to left may change that this evening. It will also be warm and humid. The trifecta for positive hitting conditions.

- The Nats bullpen has posted a 3.62 xFIP L30Days -- 5th best in MLB.

- Corbin has pitched moderately well lately with a 3.81 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his last five starts.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo

Bargain Bat: Jose Iglesias

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

+ It’s a fairly big slate so, even in a solid match-up, only two hitters in the projected MIL lineup have above a 7% pOwn%.

+ Brewers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 8th on the slate).

+ Based on their 112 wRC+, the Brewers have been an above-average offense vs. LHPs over the last month.

+ Perez is coming off of a solid outing against the Cardinals, but he hasn’t been pitching well overall lately. Over his last five starts, Perez has come away with a 7.23 ERA, .354 opp AVG, .448 opp wOBA, 1.86 WHIP, 2.70 HR/9 Rate, and 14.8% kRate.

+ The Brewers have been the #3 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.15 runs/gm.

- The Pirates bullpen has been quite solid, posting a 3.64 xFIP L30Days -- 6th best in MLB.

Favorite MIL Bats: William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Willy Adames

Bargain Bat: Jackson Chourio

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Gordon Graceffo (RHP), STL (DK Main Slate Only)

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC (DK Main Slate Only)

OF James Wood, WAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k| vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Gordon Graceffo (RHP), STL (DK Main Slate Only)

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Rowdy Tellez, PIT | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL

2B/SS Romy Gonzalez, BOS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

2B/3B Jose Iglesias, NYM | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Rece Hinds, CIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jose Iglesias MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Tyler O’Neill MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!