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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

As a nice treat for this week, we’ll actually have a substantial Thursday slate this week with a seven-gamer set to get underway at 6:40 ET! At first glance, this slate strikes a nice balance between pitching and hitting. Outside of two or three games with some late start potential, there are no immediate postponement threats to sweat as well. Let’s keep this intro short and sweet and dive right in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAD @ PIT (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): A bit of rain may be in the process of clearing around first pitch so a late start is a possibility. No further issues once they get going.

• ATL @ WAS (6:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Another spot where some scattered showers may take some time to clear out so the potential for a late start exists here as well. And, once again, once they begin play (which may be as scheduled), there should be no additional stoppages.

• MIN @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Much of the same as PIT & WAS with a line of showers possibly sparking a late start, then generally clear after that. Near 80 degrees at the scheduled first pitch with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to center.

• CHC @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• COL @ STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds around 10 mph OUT to right.

• BOS @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 15 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. COL

Gray has had one hiccup (5/9 @ MIL) across his ten starts this season and has secured at least 18.5 DKFP/33 FDFP in his remaining nine starts. His 33.5% kRate and 2.49 xFIP not only lead all pitchers on this slate by a significant margin but Gray ranks 3rd among all MLB starters this season in both categories. Gray has also been utterly dominant across his five home starts (29.1 IP) this season where he is rocking a microscopic 0.93 ERA paired with a 2.23 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, .167 opp AVG, and 33.9% kRate.

Gray will draw the typically favorable “road Rockies” match-up this evening. Colorado has been a bit better on the road than most may give them credit for, specifically over the last few weeks. Against RHPs on the road L30Days, Colorado’s 105 wRC+ and .722 OPS both check in at 9th in MLB during that span. They’re still striking out at an above-average rate on the road (23.0% kRate). Now let’s do a quick dive into Gray’s repertoire and get a look at how the Rockies match up. Gray has an extensive arsenal that features six total pitch types -- five of those (four-seamer, sweeper, curveball, sinker, and cutter) he has thrown on at least 14.9% of his pitches. The curveball and sweeper have been Gray’s go-to putaway pitches. Against those two pitch types (from RHPs) when playing away from Coors Field, the Rockies have gone on to allow a 33.7% kRate which is paired with an MLB-low 24.1% HardHit%. Gray has racked up at least eight strikeouts in half of his starts this season and has acquired double-digit strikeouts on two occasions. This is another spot where the Ks should certainly be there in abundance and I wouldn’t count on Colorado putting up more than a run or two, if any, against him. The Cardinals also check in as slate-leading -240 ML favorites and their offense has been waking up lately (118 wRC+ L30Days, ranks 2nd in MLB), so Gray should be a great bet to land the win bonus as well. He’ll no doubt garner significant ownership but I’d have no problem eating the Gray chalk and differentiating elsewhere.

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ CIN

Assad has been generally solid all year and he takes a sharp 2.27 ERA into his 13th start of the season. His 4.01 xFIP suggests some sizable regression is due, but he keeps finding ways to avoid the regression monster. Whether it’s a sinker, cutter, or four-seamer, Assad loves to pound fastballs, which make up over 77% of his pitches this season. There is nothing remarkable about his 6.2% SwStr% but, due to such heavy fastball usage, he has managed to get ahead in counts and maintain an above-average 23.2% kRate.

It’s always worth a shot to attack an offense that is coming off of a series at Coors Field, as the Reds are today. Great American Ballpark is an offensive launch pad in its own right, and there will be some winds blowing toward the outfield tonight. That said, the Reds have managed to average just 4.00 runs/gm at their hitter-friendly home ballpark this season. Assad also forces plenty of groundballs, which could counteract GABP’s hitter-friendly profile, and the Reds own a 26.7% kRate vs. RHPs this season, which is the second-highest mark in MLB behind only the Mariners. And the Reds also have the 7th highest kRate vs. RHP fastballs this season, which they’ll see plenty of tonight. I wouldn’t call him an overly safe play, but if you want to go against some of the pitching chalk, Assad has several pathways to success that he could go down this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k | @ CWS

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.5k | @ WAS

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CHC

Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ATL

Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.9k | @ STL (DK SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), CWS

+ Red Sox: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ The Red Sox have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .264 AVG (4th), .752 OPS (5th), .327 wOBA (5th), .165 ISO (9th), and 107 wRC+ (7th).

+ Jake Woodford has only made one MLB start this season but, in 52.0 IP since the start of last year, he has had plenty of issues with a 6.23 ERA, 5.22 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, .311 opp AVG, 1.90 HR/9 Rate, and 13.6% kRate.

+ The White Sox bullpen has been a disaster L2Weeks: 8.37 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, .323 opp AVG, and 2.05 WHIP.

+ Great hitting conditions in Chicago tonight with 15 mph winds blowing out to left.

+ The Red Sox have been more productive on the road (4.80 runs/gm) than at home (4.03 runs/gm).

- The Red Sox will be a popular target on this slate with six hitters having a double-digit pOwn%.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill

Bargain Bat: Rob Refsnyder

Atlanta Braves vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

+ Braves: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ The Braves have had their fair share of offensive struggles over the last month-plus, but they’ve been effective against LHPs on the road this season with a .777 OPS (ranks 7th), .338 wOBA (7th), .199 ISO (1st), and 120 wRC+ (7th).

+ Parker has been solid for the Nats this season (3.60 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP) but he just faced the Braves ten days ago -- a pitcher facing the same team twice in such a short span often ends up benefiting the opposing offense.

+ The Braves’ salaries continue to gradually become more and more affordable due to the recent offensive slump.

+ The Nationals have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.14 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 19.2% kRate.

- Parker posted a quality start against the Braves last Monday and over their last 20 games vs. LHPs, Atlanta has a lackluster .239 AVG, .290 wOBA, .136 ISO, and 25.4% kRate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall

Bargain Bat: Brian Anderson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the STL lineup have a ≤ 11% pOwn%.

+ The Cardinals have been outstanding at home versus RHPs over the last month: .301 AVG, .858 OPS, .373 wOBA, .197 ISO, and 149 wRC+.

+ Quantrill owns a subpar 4.25 xFIP this season and he doesn’t rack up many Ks (17.8% kRate).

+ Rockies bullpen L2Weeks: 6.62 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .294 opp AVG, and 17.4% kRate.

+ Winds around 10 mph blowing out to right field in St. Louis tonight.

+ All Cardinals bats are very affordable.

- Prior to a rough outing against the Dodgers on the road last week, Quantrill had been on a nice roll with five consecutive quality starts between 5/3 and 5/26.

- Since the beginning of May, Quantrill has maintained a 2.50 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 23.7% kRate -- strong numbers all around.

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Paul Goldschmidt

Bargain Bat: Masyn Winn

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), CWS

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Jesse Winker, WAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Andy Pages, LAD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), CWS

OF Adam Duvall, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

3B Jose Miranda, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

2B Emmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), CWS

1B Dominic Smith, BOS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), CWS

3B/OF Brian Anderson, ATL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great prop recommendations in the video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!