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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another all-day baseball affair this Wednesday with MLB action happening throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Our focus will, of course, land on the nine-game main slate which will get underway at 6:40 ET. From a pitching perspective, this slate feels a bit tricky as there aren’t too many arms you can roll out with a high level of confidence. But that just means that more hitters/stacks will be viable options, so it all balances out in the end. We’ll see if we can find the right pieces to the puzzle! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAD @ PIT (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): They’ll need to dodge some storms today but the general feeling is that there will be enough of a dry window to get this game in. The PPD risk is not overly high but the chance of a late start or mid-inning delay is there, which will make the starting pitchers a tad riskier.

• KC @ CLE (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): A bit more concern here than in Pittsburgh. This game will likely start dry but rain chances spike significantly in the middle/late innings. We’ll have to check the forecast closer to first pitch to get a better idea of how things are going to play out but, as of now, a delay or PPD is on the table.

• MIN @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain is in the forecast but the ugly stuff will hold off until after the game.

• CWS @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Rain will hold off until after the game here as well. Solid hitting conditions with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center/right at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• SD @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | @ LAA

Cease has had some underwhelming outings in recent weeks but when he’s locked in, he brings double-digit K upside and the ability to pitch 7+ innings to the table. Despite a few tough games, Cease brings a respectable 3.20 xERA, 3.26 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and 30.9% kRate into his 13th start of the season.

The primary draw for Cease will be the enticing match-up he has in front of him this evening. The Angels have simply done nothing of note against right-handed pitching lately. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs (304 PA), the Angels rank dead last in MLB with each of the following offensive metrics: .162 AVG, .479 OPS, .221 wOBA, .083 ISO, and 40 wRC+. They’re also striking out at a moderately high 23.4% clip. When a team’s wOBA is approaching the Mendoza Line and is paired with a sub-.500 OPS during any significant stretch, you know they’re in the midst of a hard slump. If you’re willing to pay top dollar for pitching today, Cease makes as much sense as any high-end arm on this slate.

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. MIN

We haven’t seen insane upside out of Rodon this season, largely due to his kRate dropping down to a rather pedestrian 22.2%. But he’s backed up by a powerful offense and heads into tonight’s game with some nice form. Over his last five starts, Rodon has boasted a perfect 5-0 record with quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in all five outings. He has maintained a 2.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 21.7% kRate in that stretch as well. Rodon has also looked sharp in all four of his home starts this season where he has come away with a 2.13 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .189 opp AVG, and 23.0% kRate across 25.1 IP. His 4.30 xERA and 4.49 xFIP are not great underlying figures and Rodon has some worrisome statcast figures over the last month, but we’ll hope that the regression monster stays away for at least one more game.

Minnesota has been sluggish against opposing lefties as of late and vs. LHPs L2Weeks they’re hitting for a meager .175 AVG, .519 OPS, .234 wOBA, .113 ISO, and 51 wRC+. Their kRate is only 19.2% against LHPs in that stretch, but if we go back across the Twins’ previous 20 games vs. LHPs, we’ll find that they’re striking out at a fairly high 25.3% rate. Rodon went up against this same Twins team about three weeks ago and came away with a rock-solid line of 6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, and 6 K with the win -- good for 23.9 DKFP/43 FDFP. If we can get another quality start out of Rodon paired with 5-to-7 strikeouts and the win bonus, I believe we’ll be content with that result on a slate where pitching is fairly lackluster.

Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.9k | @ TOR

Things get pretty ugly in the pitching department once you get past the top five-ish priced arms on this slate. Going with any cheap pitcher is going to have some amount of risk baked in. By my guess, as well as LineStar’s ownership projections, A’s RHP Joey Estes (DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k) will be the preferred bargain bin pitcher as he takes on the strikeout-prone Mariners.

I don’t mind rolling Estes if you’re dumpster diving, specifically as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings. Albert Suarez is another affordable option that will have some enticing qualities. He began the season as a starter, then transitioned into a bullpen role, and is now back in the rotation. Suarez has found some solid success in his five games as a starter this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, .225 opp AVG, and 23.2% kRate. He also threw a season-high 95 pitches in his last outing, so any questions about his workload can be stifled.

The Blue Jays bats have come alive in recent weeks and their 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks is good for 6th in MLB. They’re also a tough team to strike out with a 16.8% kRate L2Weeks (2nd lowest). But there are some reasons to believe Albert Suarez can have a solid day on the mound. First, we’ll look at his pitch mix which primarily features four-seamers (54.9% of his pitches), cutter (21%), and changeup (18.9%). Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Blue Jays have an MLB-worst .203 AVG, and their .295 wOBA checks in at 28th. Their kRate also climbs to 22.3% against that pitch mix, which is the 11th highest in MLB. Toronto also hasn’t been an overly potent offense at home, where they’ve averaged 3.76 runs/gm this season, which ranks 25th in the league. Finally, Suarez will be backed up by a talented Orioles offense that has helped Baltimore to a 10-2 record over their last 12 games. So, as long as he pitched 5+ innings, Suarez has a decent chance to snag the win bonus even though the O’s are slight underdogs in this game. It may not be an overly exciting play, but Suarez stands out as one of the more viable SP options if you’re not rolling with one of the high-priced arms.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | @ OAK

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | vs. LAD (Monitor weather)

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CWS

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ MIA

Joey Estes (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

+ Yankees: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ The Yankees continue to put in work against RHPs. Over the last month against righties, they own an MLB-best .276 AVG, .852 OPS, .367 wOBA, .237 ISO, and 143 wRC+.

+ Paddack has shown some severe home/road splits and in 22.1 IP on the road this season, he has come away with a 6.85 ERA, 4.99 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, .312 opp AVG, 12.1% kRate, and 2.01 HR/9 Rate.

+ Paddack has allowed 12 barreled balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile) and an average batted-ball distance of 197.9 feet (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Yankee Stadium has been the #9 home run ballpark this season.

+ Outside of Aaron Judge, every remaining Yankees hitter has a <10% pOwn%.

-/+ The Twins’ bullpen continues to put up excellent numbers. Over the L2Weeks, they’ve boasted a 1.69 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and .171 opp AVG. However, their 3.80 xFIP in that same span ranks more middle-of-the-pack and indicates some sizable regression is due.

- The Yankees haven’t been quite as productive at home where they’re averaging 4.67 runs/gm (vs. 5.09 runs/gm away).

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: DJ LeMahieu

Texas Rangers vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

+ Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ Maeda is in the midst of his worst big league season -- over his nine starts, he has struggled to a 6.25 ERA, 4.82 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 17.1% kRate.

+ It’s only a four-start, 15.0 IP sample size, but Maeda has come away with an awful 10.80 ERA on the road this season to go along with a 1.93 WHIP, .348 opp AVG, and 3.00 HR/9 Rate.

+ Maeda has allowed an average batted-ball distance of 231.9 feet L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Rangers treated Maeda to an early exit when they faced him back on April 18th of this season. Maeda left the game after just 2.2 IP and 63 pitches, allowing 5 ER on seven hits (three HRs) and two walks.

+ The Tigers bullpen has faltered to a 6.20 ERA and 1.47 WHIP L2Weeks. The DET bullpen has also been heavily taxed after pitching 28.0 innings over the last seven days (3rd most in MLB).

- The Rangers' offense has been slumping against RHPs with just a .214 AVG, .289 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ L2Weeks.

- The Rangers are averaging only 3.79 runs/gm at home this season (vs. 4.88 runs/gm away).

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Josh Smith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

We don’t get many chances to grab some of the top Dodgers bats at low ownership but that looks to be the case today as they take on rookie phenom Paul Skenes. Outside of Shohei Ohtani (8% pOwn%), no other Dodgers hitter has a pOwn% higher than 4% today. Skenes throws straight gas and he’ll be catching this Dodgers team in the midst of a slump (93 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, ranks 22nd). That said, Skenes is not totally unhittable and there’s also an off-chance that his outing gets cut short if weather forces a lengthy mid-game delay. There’s also nothing special about this Pirates bullpen so, even if Skenes has a quality start against LA, some Dodgers bats could do some damage in the later innings.

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: Gavin Lux

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Nick Sandlin (RHP)/Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

2B/SS Amed Rosario, TB | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

SS JP Crawford, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

1B Josh Bell, MIA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

OF Akil Baddoo, DET | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

1B/3B Gio Urshela, DET | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

2B Otto Lopez, MIA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

2B/3B Daniel Schneemann, CLE | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Anthony Volpe MORE than 0.5 Runs

Ha-Seong Kim MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!