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Top DFS Offers 6/4/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Today is known as “Takedown Tuesday” around these parts and, in typical Tuesday fashion, we have a hefty main slate ahead with ten games on the docket! On the surface, this looks to be a fairly balanced slate between pitching and hitting so the amount of different approaches to take today are virtually endless. We will have to keep an eye on the crosstown match-up in Chicago as rainy weather could cause some issues there but, other than that, everywhere else is looking pretty solid! Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-end possibility of some late-inning rain but nothing to really worry about.

• CWS @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): As mentioned in the intro, this is the one trouble spot to keep an eye on. Two lines of storms are approaching the Chicago area. The first features lighter rain and could be clear, or clearing, around first pitch. The second line brings some heavier stuff along with it and looks to arrive later in the evening, possibly during the late innings. As of now, there is a decent chance that they’ll have a sizable window to get most/all of this game in but there is undoubtedly some delay/PPD risk to worry about. For now, I’ll keep players from this game within DFS consideration but be sure to run a forecast check closer to first pitch. 10-15 mph winds mostly blowing right-to-left, a bit OUT to left at times.

• CIN @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): Noticeable crosswinds blowing left-to-right at 10-15 mph. Warm-ish temps (by COL standards) in the mid-to-upper 70s.

• SD @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.6k | @ TEX

Flaherty continues to be one of the more notable surprises of the 2024 season, and he’s routinely been someone we want in our DFS lineups. His 3.46 ERA may not be quite what you’d want to see from a pitcher out of these price ranges, but he has pitched considerably better than his ERA would indicate. Flaherty’s 2.03 xFIP and 34.0% kRate lead not only all pitchers on this slate but all MLB starters combined. He’s also posting a minuscule 3.8% BB% and his statcast figures from the last month are green across the board.

The match-up against the Rangers isn’t one that I’d label as ideal but, outside of a hot-hitting Corey Seager and a generally productive Josh Smith, no other player in the projected Rangers lineup has a wOBA over .321 against RHPs this season. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (279 PA), the Rangers check in at 21st with a .292 team wOBA and 20th with an 89 wRC+. They haven’t supplied a ton of strikeouts to opposing righties in that span, with just a 19.7% kRate, but Flaherty has been able to rack up the Ks regardless of the opposition this season. Just two starts ago, he posted nine strikeouts against the Blue Jays, who have just a 19.5% kRate vs. RHPs this season (6th lowest in MLB). Flaherty has also come away with a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in eight of his last nine outings so his floor is about as strong as any pitcher on this slate. Behind his four-seamer, Flaherty has relied upon his slider and knuckle curve. He has generated a 42.0+% Whiff% on both of those pitches and, against those two pitch types, the Rangers are hitting for a combined .219 AVG to go along with an elevated 25.2% kRate. So we can expect Flaherty to pound his fastball early and then pick up the Ks with those two secondary pitches, which have been elite this season.

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | @ BOS

It was a rocky start to the 2024 season for Fried but he has looked like his typical ace-caliber self for a hot minute now. Spanning his last seven starts (50.1 IP) dating back to April 23rd, Fried has posted an outstanding 1.43 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, .154 opp AVG, and 23.1% kRate while inducing a 64.6% Groundball%. His kRate may not be up there with the elites but, what he lacks in huge K upside, he makes up for with innings-eating prowess. In those previous seven starts, Fried has covered at least seven full innings on five occasions and has two complete games under his belt, including one CGSO on just 92 pitches (aka a “Maddux” game).

Aside from Fried’s current form, another major reason to slide him into lineups tonight will be the match-up with Boston. The Red Sox have posted an MLB-high 28.4% kRate versus LHPs this season. If we look at their splits versus LHPs over just the last two weeks, we’ll find that they’re hitting just .205 with a .582 OPS, .263 wOBA, .102 ISO, and 63 wRC+. Boston also has the 4th highest Groundball Rate against LHPs this season at 46.8% so, when they’re not striking out, they’re often pounding it into the dirt for easier defensive groundouts. The Braves offense has been struggling for well over a month now but Atlanta is still stepping in as generous -174 ML favorites tonight, largely because of the fact that it’s Fried on the mound. While he may not be cheap, one could argue that Fried’s sub-$10k salaries represent a moderate discount given the way he has been pitching lately.

Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SEA

By my guess, as well as by LineStar’s projected ownership numbers, RHP Spencer Arrighetti (DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.5k) will be the most popular value pitcher on this slate -- specifically when it comes to DraftKings SP2 ownership. I certainly don’t mind the Arrighetti play as he seems to be finding his footing at the MLB level and brings quality strikeout potential into a favorable match-up at home.

If we want to go even cheaper, Mitch Spence may be worth a look as a risk/reward value play. Most of his appearances have come out of the bullpen this season but, due to injuries in the A’s starting rotation, Spence has stepped in as a starter in each of his previous three outings. He threw 98 pitches in his most recent start (his previous high was 77 pitches), so his arm is fully stretched out to handle a traditional starter’s workload. Spence’s numbers on the season won’t leap off the page, but they’re solid all around for a guy who only costs $6,500 on DraftKings. Overall, he has posted a 3.52 ERA, 3.18 xERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 22.1% kRate, and 12.3% SwStr%. His Swinging Strike Percentage is good for 5th among today’s starting pitchers and indicates that he should begin to creep closer to a 25% kRate.

By now, we all know the Mariners strike out a ton and their 28.5% kRate vs. RHPs this season is the highest in the MLB by a decent margin. So the Ks are there for the taking for any opposing pitcher with decent “stuff”. If we dissect the pitch mix, Spence throws a somewhat unconventional primary three-pitch mix that features the slider (40.8% of his pitches), cutter (40.5%), and curveball (12.7%). Against those three combined pitches (from RHPs), we’ll find that the Mariners’ kRate jumps to 33.5% (highest in MLB) and is paired with a low .213 AVG. While he may not end up pitching a super clean game, Spence’s strikeout potential in this match-up more than justifies taking some shots on him, especially if you’re trying to jam in some Coors Field hitters or other high-priced bats into your lineup.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11k | vs. MIN

Shota Imanaga (RHP), CHC | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.5k | vs. CWS (Monitor weather)

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. ATL

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DET

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

+ Yankees have been the #1 offense vs. RHPs over the last month: .280 AVG (1st), .861 OPS (1st), .371 wOBA (1st), .238 ISO (1st), and 145 wRC+ (1st).

+ Ober is a solid starter but he has had a couple of rough outings recently to go along with some very poor statcast figures over the last month -- 34.8% LineDrive%, 216.3 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 5th percentile), and eight barreled balls (bottom 15th percentile).

+ Yankee Stadium has been the #9 home run ballpark this season.

+ Outside of Judge and Soto, every remaining Yankees hitter has a <5% pOwn%.

-/+ The Twins’ bullpen has been incredibly solid L2Weeks, allowing just a 1.30 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and .156 opp AVG, however, their 3.72 xFIP in that same span ranks more middle-of-the-pack and indicates some sizable regression is due.

-/+ Yankees: 4.2 implied runs (ranks 12th among non-Coors teams).

- The Yankees haven’t been quite as productive at home where they’re averaging 4.65 runs/gm (vs. 5.09 runs/gm away).

- The “big two” hitters are going to be extremely expensive to stack together.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: DJ LeMahieu

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

+ D-Backs: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ D-Backs have beena  top-three offense vs. LHPs this season: .280 AVG (1st), .776 OPS (3rd), .339 wOBA (3rd), and 120 wRC+ (3rd). They also have decent power versus lefties (.160 ISO, ranks 7th) and they don’t strike out much (19.4% kRate, 6th lowest).

+ Kyle Harrison has some talent, but he has shown some struggles on the road in his young career: 48.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 5.22 xFIP, 18.5% kRate, and 2.23 HR/9 Rate.

+ Harrison has allowed 10 barreled balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ There aren’t too many bats in this lineup that should be highly owned and most carry generous DFS salaries.

- The Giants bullpen has been solid recently with a 3.49 xFIP L2Weeks (5th best in MLB).

- While their season-long numbers against LHPs are great, the D-Backs’ lefty splits have dropped to more mid-pack results over the last month.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Blaze Alexander

Chicago Cubs vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

I won’t go into much detail here but, if the weather looks like it’ll cooperate, a Cubs stack looks like a favorable play versus Chris Flexen and a bad White Sox bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Angels lineup have a < 8% pOwn%.

+ Angels: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Mazur will be making his MLB debut and, in the four starts since being promoted to Triple-A, the results have been pretty ugly: 7.11 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, .280 opp AVG, and 1.89 HR/9 Rate.

+ The entire LAA lineup ranges from affordable to dirt cheap.

+ Based on Park Factor, Angel Stadium has ranked as the #1 hitter’s park this season.

- The Angels have been pretty terrible against RHPs lately -- their 55 wRC+ L2Weeks ranks dead last in MLB.

- While his Triple-A results were ugly, it’s possible that Mazur was working on some of his secondary pitches in anticipation of a call-up -- he was great across six Double-A starts this year where he produced a 1.95 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, and 26.7% kRate.

- The Padres have had a top-10 bullpen L2Weeks.

Favorite LAA Bats: Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe (would also heavily consider Kevin Pillar if he’s in the lineup)

Bargain Bat: Jo Adell

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B/OF Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Mitch Spencer (RHP), OAK

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Blake Walston (LHP), ARI

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Trevor Richards (RHP), TOR

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

3B/OF Matt Vierling, DET | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Miguel Andujar, OAK | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

OF Stuart Fairchild, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Blake Walston (LHP), ARI

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

3B Donovan Solano, SD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

2B/SS Brett Wisely, SF | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Blake Walston (LHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No prop picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!