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Top DFS Offers 6/3/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A solid eight-game Monday slate will get us going this week! My initial feeling is that this will be another fairly low-scoring slate since there is an abundance of decent-to-great pitchers taking the mound. However, Coors Field is back in the mix and there will almost certainly be a few offenses that manage to outperform expectations. There is not too much in the way of worrisome weather as well which is always a plus. Finally, keep in mind that this slate will get underway a tad earlier than usual at 6:40 ET. Let’s get it rolling! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIL @ PHI (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some isolated storms are in the forecast, and if one rolls over the ballpark, it could lead to a lengthy stoppage in play. Fortunately, it’s considerably more likely that this game avoids any trouble and plays without issue.

• NYM @ WAS (6:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Similar forecast to Philly. Isolated storms in the general area with a low chance of one making its way over the ballpark and possibly causing some issues. It’s a non-significant, but still notable, forecast to monitor.

• CIN @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): Light rain is in the mid-game forecast but they can likely play through it, if it even hits the ballpark. Temps around 80 degrees at first pitch with 10+ mph winds blowing IN from right/center. Regardless of the inward-blowing winds, it’s still Coors Field, so bats aren’t going to get any major downgrade, especially since the temps are on the warmer side.

• SD @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds OUT to left around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.4k | @ TEX

Outside of a rare down performance against the Royals a couple of starts back, Skubal has gone on to put up good-to-outstanding pitching lines in each of his remaining ten starts this season. He’s currently the frontrunner in the AL Cy Young Award betting market with odds as high as +150 (DraftKings) and he’s got the stats to back those odds up: 2.01 ERA, 2.53 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 31.3% kRate, 14.7% SwStr%, and a 29.1% HardHit%, which ranks 4th among all MLB starters.

We know Skubal is elite but what about the match-up with the defending World Champion Rangers? Well, the Rangers’ offensive struggles have been pretty well documented. They’ve been a fairly average offense versus RHPs but firmly a bottom-10 offense against lefty pitching. Over the last month against LHPs, they rank 26th in MLB with a 79 wRC+ and they check in at 24th or worse in wOBA, ISO, and OPS in that same span. They have not been a super strikeout-prone team on the season, but their 20-game rolling kRate vs. LHPs is up to 23.5%. Six hitters in their projected lineup have posted at least a 24.5% kRate vs. LHPs and two hitters (Seager & Langford) are over 30%. The Rangers also rank 26th in xwOBA versus Skubal’s primary pitch mix of four-seamers, changeups, and sinkers. So, by all means, if you’re spending up on pitching today, Skubal sets up nicely against this Rangers team.

Matt Waldron (RHP), SD | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k | @ LAA

As has been the case with most other knuckleballers in the history of MLB, the range of outcomes for Matt Waldron is fairly wide. That being said, he’s been in a serious groove recently, and, spanning his last four starts, Waldron has procured an outstanding 1.96 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 33.7% kRate.

While Waldron is in the midst of an impressive run, the opposite is true of the Angels offense… specifically against right-handed pitching. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, the Angels are hitting just .189 with a .571 OPS, .259 wOBA, 65 wRC+, and 23.2% kRate. The kRate has been higher-than-average but those remaining offensive metrics that I just listed rank either 29th or dead last in the MLB during that span, with the Angels being ahead of only the Chicago White Sox in certain categories. The Padres are also moderate -152 ML favorites so Waldron will have a solid chance at snagging the win bonus this evening. If he continues to pitch as he has done lately, he won’t remain in the $7k range much longer.

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.6k | @ WAS

There is quite the pricing discrepancy on Megill between DraftKings and FanDuel so he’ll be better suited as an SP2 on DK, unless you’re looking to get really different over on FD. Megill exited his season debut way back on March 31st due to a right shoulder strain, but he returned to big league action on May 20th. So, we’ve only seen him in two outings since the injury, but he has looked sharp against two quality opponents (Guardians & Dodgers). He has also thrown 86 and, most recently, 98 pitches in those two starts, so it doesn’t appear as if he’s facing any limitations following his stint on the IL. I’ve never viewed Megill as a particularly good MLB starter, and that is reflected in his career 4.54 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and middling 22.7% kRate across 279.1 IP. However, even in a small sample size, it’s tough to ignore the 31.3% kRate that he has posted thus far this season to go along with a 1.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His 3.71 xFIP suggests some sizable regression is due, but it’s far from an ugly figure.

Whether or not Megill can continue to pitch at this level remains to be seen, but he’ll draw a plus match-up against the Nats this evening. Washington ranks 24th with an 85 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks to go along with a middle-of-the-road 21.9% kRate. Megill has a pretty extensive pitch repertoire but his primary arsenal features his four-seamer, cutter, and slider. Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Nationals rank dead last in MLB with an 86.7 mph average exit velo. So, Washington will likely string some hits together on Megill but they’re not likely to put up many XBHs if they maintain such a low exit velocity on any pitches they get a piece of. Overall, Megill represents an intriguing pivot away from the aforementioned Matt Waldron and the more popular mid-range pitchers such as Justin Verlander and Kevin Gausman. And, again, with price point in mind, he’s going to be a more favorable play on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIL

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. STL

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

+ Padres: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ The home Padres and the road Padres have looked like two different teams -- San Diego has been the #1 offense on the road this season, averaging 5.23 runs/gm (vs. 3.68 runs/gm at home).

+ Based on Park Factor, Angel Stadium has been the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season (and #8 home run ballpark).

+ Anderson has maintained a strong 2.47 ERA over 11 starts this season, but he is long overdue for some serious regression based on his 5.00 xFIP and .211 BABIP. The .211 BABIP really shows how lucky he has been getting when you compare it to his career .284 BABIP.

+ The power hasn’t been there, but the Padres are hitting for a .294 AVG vs. LHPs on the road L30Days.

+ The Angels bullpen owns a 4.97 xFIP L2Weeks (2nd worst in MLB).

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the projected Padres lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

- Anderson has some impressive, and extensive, BvP history versus San Diego -- in 123 PA vs. the current Padres roster, he has held them to a .193 AVG and.233 wOBA.

- The “road Padres” have been much better against RHPs (130 wRC+, ranks 1st) than LHPs (95 wRC+, ranks 18th).

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Donovan Solano

Philadelphia Phillies (LHBs Preferred) vs. Jared Koenig (LHP)/Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL*

*Koenig will serve as the opener and cover the first one or two innings. Wilson is then expected to serve as the “bulk reliever”.

+ Phillies: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ Most of the Phillies at-bats should come against Bryse Wilson, who has had a volatile season up to this point -- Wilson owns a lackluster 4.64 xFIP on the season to go along with a slate-worst 46.7% HardHit% and 12.9% HR/FB Rate.

+ Lefty Phillies hitters will have the best match-up when Wilson is on the mound -- Wilson’s splits vs. LHBs this season: .299 opp AVG, .409 opp wOBA, 5.14 xFIP, 1.82 WHIP, and 2.41 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Phillies have been the #1 home offense this season, averaging 5.67 runs/gm (vs. 4.67 runs/gm away).

- The Brewers have had a top-10 bullpen L2Weeks: 2.48 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, and .193 opp AVG.

- Again, he’ll only pitch the first one or two innings, but Koenig has not allowed an earned run in any of his previous seven outings, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Phillies get off to a slow start.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott

Bargain Bat: David Dahl (DK Only)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

+ Every hitter in the Orioles lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Orioles have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks (120 wRC+, ranks 3rd).

+ Gausman is a great pitcher but, for whatever reason, he has been awful at home this season: 24.2 IP, 6.20 ERA, .343 opp AVG, .390 opp wOBA, and 1.74 WHIP.

+ The Blue Jays bullpen has recorded a 4.50 xFIP L2Weeks, the 6th worst in MLB.

+ Any Orioles stack could provide some strong leverage against Gausman, who currently has a 31% pOwn% on DraftKings and 19% pOwn% on FanDuel.

- Gausman’s 3.33 xFIP at home is pretty on par with his 3.18 xFIP on the road, so he hasn’t pitched as poorly as his 6+ home ERA would indicate.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle

Bargain Bat: Connor Norby (DK Only)

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Jared Koenig (LHP), Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Erik Miller (LHP)/Spencer Howard (RHP), SF

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF JD Martinez, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

3B Gio Urshela, DET | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B Donovan Solano, SD | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF David Dahl, PHI | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Jared Koenig (LHP), Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

2B Connor Norby, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No prop picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!