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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to gear up for a behemoth 13-game Friday slate! On a day where there are 26 teams in play, the starting pitcher pool is very lackluster. So we’ll likely have to make some uncomfortable decisions when it comes to choosing SPs for our lineups but on the flipside, there will be a slew of viable hitting/stack options worth considering. Let’s waste no time and jump right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• HOU @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds OUT to left at 10 mph.

• COL @ CWS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A sizable batch of rain is moving through Chicago today and looks to hang around throughout the evening. It’s not expected to be a significant downpour but if they want to play this one, they’ll have to play it in some wet weather. Keep an eye out here for a potential PPD.

• PIT @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9.0 O/U): Hot and humid with the potential for a stray pop-up storm making its way over the ballpark. There are no widespread storms expected so we’ll leave this one as a “chance for a delay” of some sort.

• CLE @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Stormy weather is expected in KC this evening but the general consensus is that most/all of the bad weather will hold off until after the game is over. Keep track of this forecast in case anything changes closer to first pitch with the storm arrival timing.

• CIN @ STL (8:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance of a delay with some scattered showers moving through the general area.

• DET @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | @ SEA

Pitching is a real roll of the dice today but we’ll start things off by spotlighting Bailey Ober. The hope is that he’ll be heading into tonight’s game with some confidence after his strongest outing of the season last week -- a complete game where he needed just 89 pitches to rack up 10 Ks while holding the A’s to two runs on four hits and zero walks. Ober is not a flamethrower with an average fastball velo of 92.0 mph, but he does possess an excellent changeup, his second-most utilized pitch, and his primary put away pitch. Hitters have a .163 AVG against Ober’s changeup this season, which is also generating a 37.7% Whiff%.

By now, we all know Seattle can be a fickle team for pitchers to face. They strike out a ton and don’t hit for average, but they also have sufficient home run power throughout the lineup. They can give up 8-to-10 Ks to an opposing starter just as easily as they could hit three homers against him. It does bode well (for Ober) that the Mariners are at home tonight at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Seattle is averaging 3.77 runs/gm at home, which is the second-fewest in the league. As is often the case, the Mariners have the highest kRate against RHPs L2Weeks at 30.2% and, while they’re only hitting for a .211 AVG in that span (ranks 28th), they do check in at 4th in MLB with a .200 ISO. Again, that’s just kinda their M.O. this season. But, circling back to Ober’s best pitch, his changeup, we’ll point out that the Mariners have the lowest batting average (.190) against RHP changeups this season which is paired with a low .111 ISO (ranks 23rd). So if Ober can lean on that pitch tonight while keeping the ball inside the park, he should prove to be one of the more reliable DFS options on the mound today.

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CHC

The mid-range salary tier is about as big of a minefield as I’ve seen on a slate this season -- some guys are going to end up working out, but others will inevitably get rocked. So we’ll dip down to the mid-$7k range with our next pitcher spotlight. Colin Rea is far from an exciting option, but the fact that he’s at home, where he averages +47.0% more FPPG, combined with a match-up against a middling Cubs offense will make him appealing at his current price points. Here is a quick rundown on Rea’s home/road splits this season:

Home: 42.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, .209 opp AVG, 0.97 WHIP, 19.2% kRate, 4.8% BB%

Away: 39.2 IP, 4.54 ERA, 5.38 xFIP, .270 opp AVG, 1.54 WHIP, 12.2% kRate, 10.0% BB%

As you can tell, there are some drastic differences in all of these key pitching metrics, and the sample sizes on innings pitched home/away are nearly identical. The kRate isn’t spectacular either way, but if he can stretch across six or seven innings while snagging five or six Ks, then we’ll take that as an acceptable outcome on what is a volatile pitching slate.

The Cubs head in ranking 19th with a 103 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks and they’ve shown very little power as of late with a .124 ISO in that same span (ranks 28th). Their 24.9% kRate is also the 4th highest in MLB during that stretch and, albeit a small 31 PA sample size, the current Cubs roster owns a 32.3% kRate against Rea. The Brewers (-140 ML) boast one of the best records at home (25-12) so we’ll like Rea’s chances of earning a win bonus as well this evening. It’s not an exciting play but odds are this will be a solid spot for Rea.

Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. TEX

We’re really playing with fire the further down we go but a nearly-unowned Albert Suarez (2% pOwn%) will find himself in a potential bounceback spot. Suarez just had two poor outings on the road against the Astros and Yankees, but he’s back at home today facing the slumping Rangers. Suarez has maintained a 1.88 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 22.0% kRate, and 6.0% BB% across 24.0 IP at home this season. Compare that to a 3.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 16.2% kRate, and 12.3% BB% over 29.1 IP on the road. He’ll also be backed up by one of the MLB’s best offenses. The O’s bats will be facing off against Max Scherzer, but he’s likely to be limited after throwing just 57 pitches in his season debut five days ago.

The Rangers own a paltry 63 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks -- only the Royals have been worse. They’ve also posted a minuscule .096 ISO in that stretch -- only the White Sox rank lower. The Rangers’ kRate, while not overly high, has also been climbing up in recent weeks (22.0% L2Weeks). Suarez is still going to be a risky investment but he has as much going for him in this spot as any other bargain bin pitcher on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIN

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. PIT

Landon Knack (RHP), LAD | DK: $8k, FD: $7.4k | @ SF

Andre Pallante (RHP), STL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $6.4k | vs. CIN

Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. COL (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox (LHBs Preferred) vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

+ Red Sox: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Vasquez has been awful versus LHBs: .474 AVG, .533 wOBA, .244 ISO, 6.59 ERA, 2.78 WHIP, and 3.29 HR/9 Rate. There are six LHBs in Boston’s confirmed lineup today.

+ Vasquez has allowed 10 barreled balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Fenway Park has ranked as the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark for LHBs this season.

+ The Padres bullpen has really struggled L2Weeks: 6.09 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .316 opp AVG, and 1.62 HR/9 Rate.

-/+ The Red Sox have just been “okay” against RHPs lately with a .316 wOBA and 101 wRC+ L2Weeks.

- The Red Sox have been marginally worse at home where they’ve averaged 4.40 runs/gm (vs. 4.95 runs/gm away).

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, David Hamilton

Bargain Bat: Masataka Yoshida

Cleveland Guardians vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

+ Guardians: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Marsh has been mostly solid this season but he has been mashed in a few of his recent starts and his statcast data from the last month is full of red (bad) results: 35.9% LineDrive%, 41.0% HardContact%, 10.3% SoftContact%, 93.4 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile), 8 barreled balls (bottom 15%).

+ The Guardians rank inside the top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and kRate against RHPs L2Weeks.

+ Based on Park Factor, Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark in 2024.

+ The Royals bullpen owns a 4.35 xFIP L2Weeks (ranks 7th worst).

- The Guardians have mustered just three runs in their last two games but perhaps that keeps some ownership away from CLE stacks.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bat: Daniel Schneemann

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX

+ Every hitter in the projected Orioles lineup has a ≤ 6% pOwn%.

+ Scherzer went five innings in his season debut this past Sunday but he only threw 57 pitches. He’s almost guaranteed to be on some moderate pitch count restriction tonight. Scherzer also got a much softer match-up in his first start. He was at home against a Royals offense that is in the midst of a HARD slump against RHPs. Now he’ll go on the road and face the #1 Orioles offense that averaged an MLB-leading 5.28 runs/gm.

+ Orioles vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .306 AVG (2nd), .933 OPS (2nd), .397 wOBA (2nd), .262 ISO (2nd), 163 wRC+ (2nd), and 18.4% kRate (8th lowest).

+ Orioles: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

+/- The Rangers bullpen will probably have to put in some additional innings tonight. They’ve been very much an average bullpen in recent weeks.

- If Scherzer is feeling anywhere close to 100%, he’s fully capable of throwing six shutout innings even while on a pitch count restriction.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn

Bargain Bat: Cedric Mullins

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.7k, FD: $5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jose Quintana (RHP), NYM

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), LAA

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

3B/SS Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

3B Jose Miranda, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: N/A | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

C Kyle Higashioka, SD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

3B/OF Daniel Schneemann, CLE | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Michael Siani, STL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Rafael Devers MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Andre Pallante MORE than 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!