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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s always a gamble on Thursdays as to whether or not we’ll get an evening main slate with more than two or three games. Depending on your site of choice, you’ll be looking at either a six-game (FanDuel) or four-game (DraftKings) main slate. It’s not much but it’s enough to work with! The FanDuel slate will get underway earlier at 6:20 ET with the inclusion of the MIA @ PHI and TEX @ BAL match-ups. For the purposes of this newsletter, we’ll generally stick to spotlighting players/stacks within the four mutually shared games, but some “FanDuel only” plays will be mentioned as well. Your boy isn’t feeling 100% today (which is why I had to skip yesterday’s newsletter) so this will be a short and sweet newsletter. Let’s hop to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TEX @ BAL (6:35 ET, 7.5 O/U, FD Main Slate Only): Mid-80s at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

• CIN @ STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light winds IN from center.

• CLE @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-end chance for a delay with a few spotty showers passing through the area. Not a major concern.

• DET @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | @ LAA

On FanDuel, folks will have the option to roll with Zack Wheeler ($10,600) or Corbin Burnes ($10,100) if they’re looking to spend up on a high-caliber arm but Flaherty lands on both main slates, so that’s where we’ll start this section off today.

Flaherty has been outstanding from the jump this season but he’s been pitching at a Cy Young Award level spanning his last nine starts. In that stretch, beginning April 30th, Flaherty has posted an insane 1.83 ERA, 1.95 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, .199 opp AVG, and 36.0% kRate across 54.0 IP. Given, his match-ups in that span were not incredibly difficult overall, but it does include plenty of quality offenses that he managed to shut down such as the Guardians, Astros (twice), and Red Sox. He also put up strong K totals against some teams that are very reluctant to strike out.

The Angels’ offense has had some sporadic stretches where they’ve been hot this season but, for the most part, this is not a scary lineup to face. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve procured a subpar 93 wRC+ (ranks 22nd) paired with a 23.2% kRate (10th highest). They also haven’t been at their best at home, where they’ve averaged an even four runs per game, ranking 23rd in MLB. The Angels also have the 5th lowest HardHit% against Flaherty’s three primary pitches (four-seamer, slider, knuckle curve). He’ll command heavy ownership on this small slate but, on days like this, it’s not the end of the world if you eat some chalk at pitcher and look to differentiate with your hitters/stacks if you’re trying to gain some leverage in GPPs.

Ben Lively (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ KC

If you’re looking for a pitcher who shouldn’t carry a ton of ownership, Ben Lively may be your guy as he has a ≤ 10% pOwn% on both sites today. On the season, he has pitched to a respectable 3.03 ERA, 3.69 xERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a slightly below-average 21.4% kRate. He’s been very steady in recent weeks, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. My one gripe on him is the fact that he doesn’t typically pitch deep into games. He has cleared 6.0 IP in just three of his 12 starts this season and has thrown 90+ pitches in just two games.

That said, he could have one of his better games against a Royals team that is really struggling to hit righties lately. Kansas City is not a team I’ve routinely attacked with pitching this season, especially when they’re at home where they’ve been the #2 home offense, averaging 5.24 runs/gm. But much of their success came earlier in the season. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Royals rank either dead last, or second-to-last, with each of the following metrics: .186 AVG, .577 OPS, .256 wOBA, and 60 wRC+. On the season, they’ve been a tough team to strike out and their 19.5% kRate (vs. RHPs) is the 4th lowest in MLB. However, that figure has ballooned to 23.4% L2Weeks as well, which is the 8th highest kRate in that span. The Royals have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last ten games, which includes getting shut out three times. Lively is backed up by a very capable Guardians offense, so he should get some solid run support and have a great chance at snagging the win bonus. Keep him in the player pool if you’re looking for some leverage in GPPs this evening.

Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | vs. DET

If you’re looking to really save some salary at pitcher in favor of bigger bats, Davis Daniel makes some sense as the cheapest SP on the slate. The 27-year-old righty’s only MLB experience came last season, where he made three multi-inning appearances out of the bullpen, pitching to a 2.19 ERA and .163 opp AVG across 12.1 IP. His 17.3% kRate was identical to his Walk Rate and the xFIP was ugly at 6.00 IP. But he has shown some encouraging things at the Triple-A level this year. It’s worth noting that his minor league figures have been from the Pacific Coast League, which is generally a very offensive-heavy Triple-A league. So, his ERA isn’t pretty at 5.45. But he has averaged over a strikeout per inning with 82 Ks across 76.0 IP (14 starts) and, compared to his limited MLB experience last year, he cut down on the walks with 25 BBs.

How will he fare in his first official career MLB start? It’s anyone’s guess. But he’ll at least get a favorable match-up against a Tigers offense that firmly ranks bottom-10 in every key offensive metric against RHPs this season. Detroit has scored two runs or fewer in eight of their last ten games and they’re notorious for putting up very little damage against opposing starting pitchers. “Punting” with Daniel will be a risk but it also wouldn’t be a major surprise if he puts in five or six solid innings of work in this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIA (FD Main Slate Only)

Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $10.1k | vs. TEX (FD Main Slate Only)

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | @ TOR

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | @ STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

+ Guardians: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The Guardians have been a top offense L2Weeks: .274 AVG (7th), .802 OPS (6th), .348 wOBA (6th), .205 ISO (5th), 129 wRC+ (5th), and 17.5% kRate (4th lowest).

+ Across 13 starts, Wacha has pitched to a not-horrible 4.07 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, and 1.22 WHIP, but he has drawn one of the easiest schedules among all MLB starters. It’s not a stretch to say that Cleveland will be his toughest match-up thus far this season.

+ Wacha has been worse at home where he averages -29.1% less FPPG.

+ There are plenty of red (bad) figures in Wacha’s statcast data from the last month -- most notably, he has allowed a huge 36.7% LineDrive%, 10.0% SoftContact%, and a 90.3 mph average exit velo (bottom 20th percentile).

+ The Guardians have been the #5 road offense, averaging 4.95 runs/gm.

+ Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark based on Park Factor.

+ The Royals have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.32 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 17.1% kRate.

- Wacha has maintained a 2.55 ERA and .181 opp AVG over his last six starts but, again, he’s been facing mostly bad or slumping offenses.

- Many Guardians hitters will be pretty chalky on this small slate.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bat: Daniel Schneemann

New York Yankees vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

+ Yankees: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Berrios has been struggling -- over his last four starts, he has come away with a 5.56 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, .287 opp AVG, 10.4% kRate, and 2.80 HR/9 Rate.

+ Berrios has allowed eight barreled balls L30Days (bottom 15th percentile).

+ In 158 PA against the current Yankees roster, Berrios has allowed a .310 AVG and .381 wOBA.

+ Against RHPs this season, the Yankees rank 1st in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.

+ The Yankees have been better on the road where they’ve averaged 5.23 runs/gm (vs. 4.68 runs/gm at home).

-/+ The Blue Jays bullpen has pitched to a 2.84 ERA L2Weeks, but their 4.06 xFIP in that same span indicates that they’ve been fairly lucky. Their 16.9% kRate L2Weeks is also the 2nd lowest in MLB.

- No doubt about it. The Yankees are in the midst of a major slump, losing eight of their last ten games. In that stretch, they’re hitting just .206 as a team with a 97 wRC+.

- The “big two” bats (Judge and Soto) are very expensive and will likely be highly owned.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe

Bargain Bat: Ben Rice

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

Favorite PHI Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: Nick Castellanos

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

Nothing too analytical here. This will be a pure “small slate leverage stack” suggestion against Flaherty, who could be the highest-owned pitcher on both DK and FD. Vegas is still pinning the Angels with a 3.9 implied run total and, even if they don’t do much damage against Flaherty, they could get some production against a beatable Tigers bullpen. Every hitter in the projected Angels lineup has a ≤ 11% pOwn% and even running out a small two or three-man LAA stack would be an easy way to “get different” on a slate that will feature a ton of chalk.

Favorite LAA Bats: Luis Rengifo, Logan O’Hoppe, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Zach Neto

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $4.6k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $4k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: N/A | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Will Brennan, CLE | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

3B/OF Daniel Schneemann, CLE | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

1B Ben Rice, NYY | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Aaron Judge MORE than 10.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Steven Kwan MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!