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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to test our mettle on another massive Tuesday slate! A dozen games are lined up on this evening’s main slate and it is a hot one! Ballparks across the East Coast and Midwest will experience gametime temps well into the 80s and 90s with some heat indexes approaching triple digits. I don’t find it surprising in the least that we’re seeing 9+ run over/unders in most of those games. With the hot temps comes increased chances of some stormy activity, so there will be multiple games we’ll need to keep an eye on -- more on those games in the weather section below. Time to prepare for some chaos and dingers. Let’s get after it! Best of luck.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): It won’t exactly be sweltering hot here, but still around 80 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to center.

• NYY @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-80s temps with 10 mph winds OUT to right/center.

• PIT @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Trouble spot #1. A nasty stormline is approaching Cincy this afternoon and, if it holds its course, we’re probably looking at some sort of lengthy delay here, either late start or in-game. There is still a decent chance they’ll eventually get this game in, but a PPD cannot be completely ruled out. We’ll need to run a pre-game radar check here before locking in any players. Upper 80s temps with 10 mph winds mostly blowing right-to-left, a bit OUT to left at times.

• ATL @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Trouble spot #2. Pesky pop-up storms in the general area with storm coverage increasing later into the evening, perhaps after the game has ended. It’ll take a little luck, but this game could end up playing without any problems. But if a storm fires up over the ballpark, they’ll be looking at a delay. Temps in the 90s with light winds OUT to center.

• LAD @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Trouble spot #3. At this time, heavy rains are expected to hold south of Chicago but if they change course and head a bit further north, this game may be in trouble. It either plays fine, perhaps with a bit of light rain here and there, or it’s a potential washout.

• MIA @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Scattered showers around this afternoon but things should clear up by gametime. Low-end chance of a delay. Upper 80s temps with 10 mph winds blowing a bit OUT to left, a bit right-to-left.

• OAK @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds OUT to center/left around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | @ SD

Today is one of those days where, due to a lack of aces on the mound, we’re seeing elevated salaries on the top-priced arms. There are still some decent arms up there, but it also feels like a wise decision to save some coin on pitching and leave some extra room for bigger bats. MacKenzie Gore isn’t necessarily cheap, and he profiles as a “feast or famine” option for DFS, but there are some things to like about him this evening. For starters, he has displayed an excellent 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP ceiling in multiple recent outings. He has also been outstanding in his five starts on the road, and he’ll be on the mound in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark tonight. Here’s a quick look at Gore’s home/road splits from this season:

Home: 52.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, .298 opp AVG, 24.8% kRate

Away: 27.2 IP, 2.28 ERA, 2.32 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, .226 opp AVG, 35.1% kRate

The road innings sample size is roughly half of the work he’s put in at home this season, but five games and 25.0+ innings is nothing to sneeze at. And he has shown significant improvements in all major pitching categories when on the road -- specifically, for DFS purposes, seeing the kRate rise above 35% is most intriguing.

I wouldn’t call this a stellar match-up for Gore. While the Padres have been fairly average against LHPs lately (105 wRC+ L30Days, ranks 16th), they also don’t strike out a ton with a 16.9% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days. However, the Padres are without their best hitter, Fernando Tatis Jr. (quadriceps/10-day IL). And if we break down Gore’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer, curveball, and slider, we’ll find that the Padres are hitting for just a .199 AVG (3rd lowest) against those pitches from lefties. Despite San Diego’s reluctance to strike out, I could still see Gore rack up 7+ Ks in this spot while also keeping the hit/run damage to a minimum. There is always some built-in risk with Gore, but he’s going to be an intriguing mid-range option today.

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. COL

Brown will undoubtedly be the “chalk du jour” at the pitching position today, so I’ll keep it relatively brief here. Brown has had some solid stretches in previous seasons but he got off to a disastrous start to his 2024 campaign. However, he has seemingly “figured it out” in recent weeks and has pitched far better than what his current DFS salaries would indicate. Over his last five starts, Brown has rocked a 1.45 ERA, 2.54 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, .205 opp AVG, and 31.9% kRate while averaging 26.0 DKFP/46.0 FDFP per game. His entirely green (good) statcast data from the last month also backs up his excellent surface stats -- most notably, he has ranked in the top 95th percentile in average exit velo (84.2 mph), top 90th percentile in average batted-ball distance (128.2 feet), and he has forced a 54.1% Groundball% alongside a low 18.9% HardContact%.

Brown will draw the road Rockies this evening and, against RHPs over the last month when playing away from Coors Field, Colorado has posted a 75 wRC+ next to a lofty 27.0% kRate. With a lack of appealing high-end arms on this slate, along with pesky weather threatening other appealing SP options, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown exceeds 40% ownership in many contests today. But, if you can stomach the chalk, he should be in line for another excellent outing.

Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.4k | @ SF

Huge gamble here, but the same can be said about all of the cheap SPs on today’s slate. Hendricks had easily his best outing of the season against this Giants team last Wednesday, when he posted a line of 5.2 IP (75 pitches), 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, and 8 K while earning the win -- good for 29.0 DKFP/44 FDFP. On the season, Hendricks has pitched to an awful 7.46 ERA, but that is backed up by a much better, albeit not great, 4.06 xFIP -- so he has been the victim of a lot of bad luck. Hendricks does keep the ball on the ground and limits the hard contact. His 80.9 mph average exit velo over the last month puts him in the 95th percentile of pitchers. I’m not sold on him putting up a repeat performance, and facing the same offense in back-to-back starts often works against the pitcher. But there aren’t many scary bats in this Giants lineup, which is hitting .213 with a below-average 96 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, to go along with a 24.8% kRate (7th highest). It’s a GPP-only play, and primarily a DraftKings SP2 recommendation, but we’ll see if lightning strikes twice for Hendricks at these dirt-cheap salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.4k | vs. MIA

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ STL (Monitor weather)

Hunter Green (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k | @ PIT (Monitor weather)

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | @ CWS (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

+ Dodgers: 5.3 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Flexen is a low-quality starter who owns a 5.03 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 18.2% kRate across 14 starts this season.

+ Dodgers vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .809 OPS, .351 wOBA, .200 ISO, 131 wRC+, and 19.2% kRate.

+ The Dodgers have been more productive on the road (5.25 runs/gm) than at home (4.78 runs/gm).

- The Dodgers are often an obvious stack, and that is no different today with five hitters in the projected lineup having at least an 11% pOwn%.

- Core LAD bats are expensive, as usual.

- The White Sox bullpen has been pitching decently well L2Weeks: 3.70 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, .226 opp AVG, and 27.1% kRate.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Jason Heyward

Houston Astros vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

+ Astros: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 7th on the slate).

+ By many pitching metrics, Gomber has been worse on the road than he has been at the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field -- his 5.05 road ERA is around a run-and-a-half higher than his home ERA and he has allowed a .281 opp AVG on the road vs. .226 opp AVG at home.

+ In four starts this month, Gomber has struggled to a 9.68 ERA, 5.54 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, .355 opp AVG, .444 opp wOBA, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, and 13.1% kRate.

+ The Astros own a 15.8% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days (2nd lowest).

+ Rockies bullpen L2Weeks: 8.26 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, .325 opp AVG, and 17.5% kRate -- pretty awful numbers even when factoring in the innings that came at Coors Field.

+ The Astros have been the #5 home offense, averaging 5.10 runs/gm (vs. 3.95 runs/gm away).

- The Astros have not been routinely smashing lefties, and their 85 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month ranks 23rd in MLB.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Joey Loperfido

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

+ Every hitter in the Red Sox lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Red Sox: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ The Red Sox just faced Gausman six days ago and did some decent damage against him. Gausman’s final line last Wednesday: 5.2 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 5 R, 4 ER, and 4 K.

+ In 109 PA vs. Gausman, the current Red Sox roster owns a .316 AVG and .380 wOBA.

+ The Red Sox have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month, and they rank 6th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ in that span.

+ Quality hitting conditions in Fenway Park this evening -- warm temps with light winds blowing out.

- Gausman has some odd splits this season -- he’s been objectively awful at home (6.43 ERA) but he has posted a 1.86 ERA across 38.2 IP on the road.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill

Bargain Bat: Emmanuel Valdez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), MIA

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Adam Mazur (RHP), SD

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Giants Bullpen

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $34.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B/SS Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B/2B Spencer Horwitz, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

2B Emmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), MIA

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), MIA

OF Forrest Wall, ATL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler has some great recommendations in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!