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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A 10-game Friday main slate rolls around and we’ll have some tough decisions to make on this one! Many of the top pitchers draw challenging match-ups and many of the lower-end, volatile offenses will draw most of the less difficult pitching match-ups. So it’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out by the time the dust settles on this hectic slate. We won’t be expecting any postponements today but there are a couple of potential trouble spots where a delay of some sort may come into play.

Also, as a heads-up, this newsletter is going to be on the shorter side. Had something come up earlier today so I’m getting a later jump on this thing than I’d like! Nonetheless, let’s do our best to find the right pieces today! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Bit of a pesky forecast here, making it one of the two games that we’ll need to monitor today. Currently, some storms are firing off to the north of New York and they’ll be skating by all afternoon and into the evening. With a little luck, the ballpark could avoid issues entirely, but if some of those storms drift a little further south, we’ll likely see a delay in this game. I can’t say a postponement is 100% off the board, but it would be a major surprise.

• WAS @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): Spotty storms in the Denver area tonight will up the risk of a delay. Everything could just as easily miss the ballpark, and the bats should be fine regardless, but pitchers will have a touch of added risk (more so than usual at Coors Field) due to the possibility of an in-game delay.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.8k | @ MIA

It’s been a bit of a sporadic season for Kirby but he comes in with some nice form and, among the top arms on this slate, he’ll easily draw the most favorable match-up. Spanning his previous four starts (24.0 IP), Kirby has procured a 1.50 ERA, 2.51 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and 28.4% kRate. His poor road splits are a concern as usual, but he has turned in a pair of strong outings in his last two road games, so hopefully that trend will continue tonight.

The Marlins have been awful at the plate, more so than usual, in recent weeks. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting for a meager .217 AVG, .603 OPS, .262 wOBA, and 67 wRC+ to go along with a middling 23.2% kRate. As long as he continues to shake his road woes, Kirby should have all the chances in the world to cruise to another strong outing tonight.

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.9k | @ CIN

Crawford has been through an absolute gauntlet over the last month -- spanning his last five starts, he has faced the Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Orioles, and Brewers. Based on wRC+, those are four of the top five offenses against RHPs this season. After struggling against the Brewers, O’s, and Braves, Crawford did bounce back to record a pair of quality starts against the Phillies and Yankees in his last two games while also racking up 17 strikeouts across his last 12.0 IP. He’ll also be hitting the road for the first time since May 29th which, in Crawford’s case, is a good thing. He averages +27.0% more FPPG on the road and, on the season, he’s rocking a 2.62 road ERA (vs. 4.15 home ERA).

Crawford’s match-up tonight isn’t without its concerns, but it’s far from the scary match-ups he’s been drawing lately. The Reds are hitting for an MLB-worst .203 AVG vs. RHPs L2Weeks to go along with a .615 OPS, .272 wOBA, 69 wRC+, and 25.3% kRate. They do have some power bats scattered throughout the lineup but the Reds just aren’t hitting for average and they’re handing plenty of strikeouts to opposing righties. Great American Ballpark hasn’t been the same sort of launch pad we’ve become accustomed to, and it has ranked 19th in Park Factor this season. All-in-all, Crawford sets up as a quality option out of the mid-range and he likely won’t command too much ownership either.

DJ Herz (LHP), WAS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | @ COL

Rostering a Coors Field pitcher is always a gamble, no matter who it is, and we’ll need to keep an eye on the forecast as well since there is some risk of an in-game delay. That said, Herz could find some success tonight in his fourth career MLB start following a confidence-boosting six-inning, 13-strikeout, one-hit, shutout performance against the Marlins last Saturday, which resulted in an insane 42.9 DKFP/67 FDFP. All-in-all, he comes into tonight’s game with a 3.77 ERA, 2.08 xERA, 2.94 xFIP, 35.0% kRate, and 14.2% SwStr%. He still has to contend with Coors Field, but the Rockies have been far from good against lefties lately, and they even have a huge 29.1% kRate against LHPs L20Games. I imagine Herz will either pitch very well or very poorly, but if you’re okay with the volatility, he could pay off in GPPs.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.8k | @ NYY (Monitor weather)

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. MIL

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ATL (Monitor weather)

Landon Knack (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. LAA

Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Washington Nationals vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. DJ Herz (LHP), WAS

Non-Coors Stacks

Cleveland Guardias vs. Yariel Rodriguez (RHP), TOR

Guardians: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams)

This will be Rodriguez’s first start since late April after dealing with a back injury. He wasn’t looking particularly good before the injury, with a 5.87 xERA, 1.76 WHIP, and 90.7 mph average exit velo spanning his four starts. The Guardians have been one of the top offenses in baseball against RHPs lately. Cleveland ranks fourth or better versus RHPs L2Weeks in each of the following metrics: .282 AVG (4th), .826 OPS (3rd), .358 wOBA (3rd), .199 ISO (3rd), 135 wRC+ (3rd), and 14.6% kRate (1st). Rodriguez likely won’t step into an immediate full workload, so a mediocre Blue Jays bullpen could be tasked with handling some additional innings.

Favorite CLE Bats: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bat: Will Brennan

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jake Bloss (RHP), HOU

Orioles: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams)

Bloss will be making his MLB debut and he was called up directly from Double-A, skipping Triple-A entirely. He has some good stuff in his repertoire, which led to him acquiring a 1.61 ERA across his eight starts (44.2 IP) in Double-A ball. However, his kRate saw a steep drop-off once he left Single-A/High-A ball, going from roughly a 32% kRate down to a 21.2% kRate [in Double-A]. Bloss’ low ERA was also backed up by a lackluster 3.98 xFIP. But, most of all, Bloss is being thrown to the wolves against one of the best offenses in baseball. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the O’s are rocking a .294 AVG (2nd), .910 OPS (1st), .390 wOBA (1st), .262 ISO (1st), and 157 wRC+ (1st). They’ve also been the #2 road team in baseball this season, averaging 5.57 runs/gm. If the O’s stay even close to as hot as they’ve been against righties lately, it could be an early exit for Bloss in his big league debut.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

Every hitter in the projected LAA lineup has a ≤ 5% pOwn%. Knack has looked pretty good across his first four MLB starts, but his 2.61 ERA is backed up by an xFIP that is nearly two runs higher at 4.48. This will be his first MLB start in about a month and, on the season, he has allowed a huge 49.2% HardHit% and 92.5 mph average exit velo. The Angels also haven’t been too bad against RHPs lately. In fact, they rank top 10 in OPS (.773), wOBA (.341), and wRC+ (120) against RHPs L2Weeks. They’ve also been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.30 runs/gm away (vs. 3.86 runs/gm at home). Running some mini two or three-man Angels stacks may be a good way to get different on this slate and the entire lineup ranges from “affordable to “dirt cheap”.

Favorite LAA Bats: Logan O’Hoppe, Luis Rengifo, Zach Neto

Bargain Bat: Nolan Schanuel

Unfortunately, I’ve gotta nix the one-off and bargain bats sections today. Just a little short on time and don’t want to list off ill-advised hitter recommendations in a rush. LineStar has all the tools and info needed to help you find those favorable one-offs and diamond-in-the-rough plays!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!