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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got all-day action on the baseball diamond this Wednesday, and a quality eight-game main slate will land on the docket! There will be only one game with a total of over eight runs on this slate, predictably at Coors Field, so offense may be a bit tough to come by on this one, but it’s a challenge worth taking on. We’ve also got the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, Gerrit Cole, making his 2024 debut for the Yanks. He is very likely to face some restrictions today since he only reached a high of 68 pitches across his rehab starts, but it’s still nice to get one of the best arms in baseball back in play in a season where many top pitchers have suffered serious injuries.

And we can’t go into this MLB newsletter without paying our respects to one of the all-time legends in the sport, Willie Mays, the “Say Hey Kid,” who passed away yesterday at the age of 93. For those unaware, the Giants and Cardinals will be playing a special game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama tomorrow to pay tribute to the Negro Leagues and, now, in commemoration of the great Willie Mays, an Alabama native and former Birmingham Black Barons player. That should be a must-watch for any baseball fan!

Now let’s get down to business with today’s MLB slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Warm temps in the 80s with 10-15 mph crosswinds, blowing right-to-left.

• HOU @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): It’s possible that a few low-coverage scattered storms will be in the area this evening. If one makes its way over the ballpark, it could spark a delay. No real threat of a PPD but just something to keep an eye on closer to first pitch.

• LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Chance for a delay here as well with some isolated rainstorms in the area. No PPD concerns.

• MIL @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds OUT to center at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. TB

We’ve got several top-of-the-rotation arms to choose from on this eight-gamer and a strong case can be built for each one. I’ll give Joe Ryan the nod here as he comes in with nice form (L5Starts: 2.73 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 26.0% kRate) having scored at least 23.4 DKFP/40.0 FDFP in four of his last five outings. He’ll also be at home, where he owns a sharp 3.17 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, and 27.1% kRate this season.

A big draw will be his match-up with the Rays, who have been sputtering on the offensive side for weeks. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve posted an MLB-worst .202 AVG to go along with a .280 wOBA (26th), .142 ISO (22nd), 84 wRC+ (25th), and 25.4% kRate (6th highest). Breaking down the pitch mix, Ryan most commonly throws his four-seamer (47.9%), split-finger (24.9%), and sweeper (13.4%). Against that pitch mix from righties, the Rays have struggled to a .198 AVG (ranks last), .280 wOBA (28th), .124 ISO (last), and 26.9% kRate (5th highest). Those season-long figures are pretty on par with what the Rays have been doing lately, except with a lower ISO and higher kRate. Joe Ryan has had his fair share of hiccups this season but he sets up as a strong high-end play this evening.

Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. HOU

Crochet has been nothing short of a revelation this season and he has only seemed to be getting better as the season progresses. He has put up some unreal numbers spanning his last five starts: 1.45 ERA, 2.11 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, .138 opp AVG, and an eye-popping 39.3% kRate. He’s also back at home tonight where he has put up his best numbers this season, including a stellar 40.1% kRate across 45.2 IP which is paired with a 2.36 ERA and 1.83 xFIP.

Crochet will draw an interesting match-up against the Astros today. On one hand, the ‘Stros rank 23rd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against LHPs over the last month (283 plate appearances). On the other hand, they’ve only struck out at a 13.1% clip against lefties in that same span. Obviously, we want at least seven or eight K upside for a pitcher at these price points. We also have to take into account that the White Sox are underdogs in this game, as usual, so a win bonus won’t be easy to come by. Nonetheless, Crochet is, or already has, ventured into “match-up proof” territory. That doesn’t mean he’s immune to a rough outing, but he has the ability to excel against any team in front of him, and the Astros haven’t exactly been mowing lefties down.

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | @ CWS

This is the pretty obvious value pitcher on the board so I won’t spend much time here. Following an awful start to the season, Brown has been MUCH better in recent weeks. Since May 28th (four starts, 25.0 IP), Brown has rocked a 1.44 ERA, 2.46 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .182 opp AVG, and 33.7% kRate. Those are not the sort of results you get out of a $7k pitcher.

The White Sox have had a tendency to provide issues for chalk pitchers over the last month or so, but that doesn’t negate the fact that they’re a below-average offense versus RHPs, and their 25.6% kRate L2Weeks is the 4th highest in MLB. Vegas is pinning the Southsiders with a meager 3.2 implied run total today, the second-lowest on the slate. Brown is going to come with heavy ownership, specifically as a popular SP2 play on DraftKings, but this game should trend toward a pitcher’s duel with its slate-low 7.0 run over/under. If Hunter Brown continues to pitch as he has in recent weeks, this is the cheapest we’ll see him priced for quite some time -- maybe even for the rest of the season.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ OAK

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. BAL (Likely facing some restrictions)

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $8k, FD: $9.1k | @ MIN

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Mets vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

+ Mets: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ The Mets have been outstanding against LHPs over the last month (311 PA), ranking first in each of the following offensive metrics: .309 AVG, .932 OPS, .400 wOBA, .244 ISO, and 166 wRC+. They’ve also struck out at a low rate in that span (18.3% kRate).

+ Heaney is an “okay” starter who owns a 4.19 ERA and 4.19 xFIP through 13 starts, but he has had issues at home where he has posted a 5.08 ERA this season.

+ Heaney: 194.1 feet average batted-ball distance L30Days (bottom 15th percentile).

+ Mets own some strong BvP history versus Heaney: 68 PA, .311 AVG, and .374 wOBA.

+ The Mets have been the #1 road offense this season, averaging 5.69 runs/gm (vs. 3.80 runs/gm at home).

+ Rangers bullpen L2Weeks: 5.36 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.39 HR/9 Rate.

- While the Rangers bullpen does have that 5+ ERA L2Weeks, their 3.50 xFIP is the 6th-best mark in MLB, so they’ve pitched better than the ERA would indicate. They have also posted a huge 29.6% kRate.

- Mets are likely to be one of the chalkier stacks of the slate, behind the Dodgers at Coors Field.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, JD Martinez, Starling Marte

Bargain Bat: Mark Vientos

Kansas City Royals vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

+ Medina only has three starts (15.1 IP) under his belt this season but, since the start of 2023 (125.0 IP), he has produced lackluster results with a 5.47 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and 41.1% HardHit%.

+ So far this season, Medina owns a slate-worst 5.72 xFIP and 14.5% kRate. He’s also having issues with walks and has allowed a high 49.0% FlyBall%.

+ Against Medina’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer, slider, and sinker, the Royals rank 7th with a .346 xwOBA and 5th with a 44.7% HardHit%. Their 19.3% kRate against that pitch mix is also the 7th lowest in MLB.

+ The A’s bullpen has posted a 5.24 xFIP L2Weeks -- second-worst in MLB. They also used some of their best relievers in last night’s game so at least one or two of those guys may not be available tonight.

-/+ The Royals have been precisely a league-average offense with a 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month.

-/+ Royals: 4.0 implied runs (ranks 7th among non-Coors teams).

- The Royals have been less effective on the road, where they’re averaging 4.17 runs/gm (vs. 5.38 runs/gm at home).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Slavador Perez

Bargain Bat: Kyle Isbel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox (LHBs Preferred) vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

+ 7-of-9 Red Sox hitters have a ≤ 6% pOwn%.

+ Going back to the well here with BoSox LHBs even though it didn’t work out too well last night. Gausman has had major issues against LHBs at home this season: .372 AVG, .466 wOBA, 1.98 WHIP, and 2.16 HR/9 Rate.

+ In 96 PA vs. Gausman, the current Red Sox roster is hitting .345 with a .376 wOBA.

+ Gausman ranks in the bottom 5th percentile among pitchers L30Days with a 92.5 mph average exit velo and 10 barreled balls allowed.

+ The Red Sox have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .300 AVG (2nd), .853 OPS (3rd), .372 wOBA (3rd), and 137 wRC+ (5th).

+ The Red Sox have been the #6 road offense, averaging 4.94 runs/gm (vs. 4.34 runs/gm at home).

- The Blue Jays bullpen has posted a top-10 WHIP and xFIP L2Weeks.

- There is no real rhyme or reason to Gausman’s poor home splits and it’s far from a guarantee they’ll continue tonight.

- Red Sox: 3.4 implied runs (T-3rd lowest on the slate).

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, David Hamilton

Bargain Bat: Mastaka Yoshida

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $5.2k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS David Hamilton, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

2B Emmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

2B Spencer Horwitz, TOR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!