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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another loaded baseball Tuesday comes around which will feature a hefty 10-game main slate! At first glance, what sticks out about this slate is the lack of elite pitching. The overall pitcher pool isn’t horrible, necessarily, but some guys are priced up more than we’re used to seeing. With a lack of aces taking the mound, it’s no surprise to see a slew of high totals -- six main slate match-ups possess over/unders of at least 9.0 runs. I imagine the most popular approach today will be to save at pitcher and spend up on the big bats/high-end stacks, especially with Coors Field on the menu once again. That could very well end up being the correct approach -- time will tell. Let’s see if we can crack the code today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10-15 mph winds here but they won’t be of much help for either pitchers or hitters since they’ll be blowing right-to-left.

• DET @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9.0 O/U): Upper-80s temp. Left-to-right crosswinds around 10 mph.

• TB @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): This will be the one game to pay the closest attention to. Rain looks to arrive before the game and is expected to get heavier/more widespread from there. A delay is a strong possibility and a PPD cannot be ruled out either. Check a more up-to-date forecast closer to first pitch before locking in any players from this game. If they can play, there will be some 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to center but also cooler temps in the 60s.

• SF @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 15 mph winds OUT to left. Another good environment for hitters at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• HOU @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Winds IN from right around 15 mph.

• LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): A few scattered showers may move through the Denver area later today. If one makes its way over the ballpark, it could spark a delay of some sort (late start being the most likely). Not a huge concern as of now. Much cooler at Coors Field today with temps in the 60s and non-helpful winds blowing right-to-left at 10 mph. It’s still Coors Field.

• MIL @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

I’ll take a slightly different approach to the pitching section today and do a brief rundown on the four top-priced arms, since there is no standout guy to play, then get into a couple of cheaper SP plays to consider.

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | @ TOR

Houck has had the best tangible results over the course of this season, so the slate-high salaries are warranted. He comes in with some nice form with a sub-2.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 25.0% kRate over his last five starts, and he also averages +20.1% more FPPG on the road. He draws a match-up against an average Blue Jays offense but the main catch is that Toronto just doesn’t strike out much. Their 19.0% kRate vs. RHPs is the 5th lowest in MLB this season, and they’ve lowered the kRate to 16.6% L2Weeks. Expect a solid result from Houck tonight, but a ceiling game is very unlikely making him a tough guy to roster at these salaries.

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | @ CHC

Webb has been turning in quality DFS scores against some tough opponents lately, and he may be the one expensive arm I’m most interested in from a leverage standpoint. However, given those hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley tonight, Webb is going to need to rely on his 56.3% Groundball Rate to come out of this one with a strong result -- he’s been getting hit hard and is allowing a lot of barrels over the last month, which will lead to homers if hitters get the ball in the air. He has upped his season-long 20.7% kRate to a more appealing 24.6% kRate L5Starts, which is nice, and the Cubs have a moderately high 24.1% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks. Webb also has some excellent BvP history against the current Cubs roster (87 PA, .209 AVG, .254 wOBA, 23.0% kRate). If he’s going to be under 10% owned, Webb is a very intriguing GPP play today.

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.4k | @ CWS

I could see Valdez gaining some steam today but I’m not sure if I’ll be a part of it. The ceiling is nice and folks may jump at the chance to roster him based on the sole fact that he’s facing the White Sox. However, Valdez is another pitcher who relies heavily on groundball outs (61.9% GB%). The White Sox have the 5th lowest GB% against LHPs over the last month. In that same span, they’ve also ranked top-10 against LHPs in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+, and their kRate hasn’t been overly high at 22.9%. In 59 PA, the current CWS roster also has a .385 AVG, .427 wOBA, and 20.3% kRate against Valdez. I’m more likely to stack the Southsiders than play Valdez, especially if he’s going to be 20+% owned.

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. TB

Reminder: Weather in this game is looking dicey.

Lopez has been one of the unluckiest starters in MLB this season when you look at his 5.33 ERA which is backed up by an xFIP that is essentially two runs lower, at 3.35. His 26.3% kRate and 13.0% SwStr% are the best marks on the slate. His volatile results from this season may scare people away, but this is a solid positive regression spot against a Rays team that is hitting .195 with an 80 wRC+ and 26.6% kRate (2nd highest) against RHPs L2Weeks. Again, gotta beware of the weather if you’re looking to roster him.

Non-Pricey Pitchers

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.8k | @ OAK

Marsh isn’t flashy but he’s turning in an impressive season and, most recently, he held the vaunted Yankees lineup to just one hit across seven scoreless innings while racking up seven Ks and earning 28.0 DKFP/46.0 FDFP. That was his best result of the season, so hoping for back-to-back ceiling games may be a tall order, but he’ll be in a good spot to do it. Spanning his last nine starts, Marsh has procured a very respectable 3.40 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 25.1% kRate. He is putting up these strong results despite some dicey statcast data. Over the last month, Marsh is in the bottom 5th percentile in average exit velo (93.4 mph), and bottom 10% in both average batted-ball distance (200.3 feet) and barreled balls (9).

The good news is that Marsh will take on the Oakland A’s, who are losers of nine games in a row. Against RHPs since the start of that losing streak (June 8th), the A’s are hitting .220 with an 84 wRC+ and an MLB-high 28.9% kRate. So this is a good spot for Marsh to snag 6-to-8 Ks. He has also been more reliable on the road (+30.8% more FPPG) and Oakland Coliseum is a solid pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET

I may get some Braves homerism allegations for this one but, on a lackluster pitching slate, I don’t mind rolling the dice on a young, affordable arm with promising big-league tools like Schwellenbach (#3 Braves prospect).  Schwelly has three MLB starts under his belt and has come away with a poor 6.32 ERA. However, the underlying 3.86 xERA is considerably better and he’s coming off of a confidence-boosting quality start where he held a top Orioles offense to two runs on four hits across 6.0 IP. Nothing is remarkable about his 17.6% kRate, but he is generating a strong 11.8% SwStr% (3rd best on the slate), so he is due for some positive strikeout regression. His kRate between eight starts in Double-A and Triple-A this year was around 29%, so I would not expect his MLB kRate to stay under 20% for long if he sticks in the Braves rotation for the foreseeable future. Looking at Schwellenbach’s statcast data, there are no concerning figures to speak of and he has allowed just a single barreled ball.

This will also be the best match-up Schwellenbach has seen at the MLB level. He’ll draw his second career home start and, against RHPs L2Weeks, the Tigers rank 26th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Their 24.6% kRate is also the 6th highest in that span. Despite having an inexperienced starter on the mound, the Braves are the fourth-heaviest favorites on the slate with -168 ML odds. It won’t be without a considerable amount of risk, but this is a play that could genuinely pay off at < 10% ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. SF

Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.9k | @ LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

+ Brewers: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Canning is a low-quality starter who owns a slate-worst 4.99 xFIP and 15.3% kRate.

+ The Brewers rank 5th with a 114 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season.

+ The Brewers match up well against Canning’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer, changeup, and slider, owning a .276 AVG (2nd) and .350 wOBA (2nd).

+ The Angels bullpen has been awful L2Weeks: 8.78 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, .322 opp AVG, 1.90 WHIP, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate.

+ Based on Park Factor, Angel Stadium has been the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

- The Brewers have been less effective on the road, averaging 4.47 runs/gm (vs. 5.21 runs/gm at home).

- The Brewers have not had a ton of recent success against RHPs L2Weeks - their 88 wRC+ ranks 23rd in MLB during that span.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Willy Adames

Bargain Bat: Sal Frelick

New York Mets vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

+ Mets: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 8th among non-Coors teams).

+ Over the L2Weeks, the Mets have ranked 1st in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ while ranking 4th or better in AVG and ISO.

+ Lorenzen has maintained a 2.86 ERA across 11 starts, but his 4.62 xFIP suggests some significant regression is due.

+ Lorenzen owns a slate-worst 11.0% BB% next to a low 17.9% kRate.

+ Lorenzen has come away with a poor 5.17 xFIP at home this season.

+ The Rangers have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.66 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP.

+ Despite their recent offensive surge, which included a massive 14-run, 22-hit performance last night, the Mets could end up being a low-owned stack with every NYM bat having a < 10% pOwn%.

- There is no guarantee regression will hit Lorenzen today and he has opposing offenses to 2 ER or fewer in each of his previous six starts.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, JD Martinez, Pete Alonso

Bargain Bat: Harrison Bader

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox (LHBs Preferred) vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

+ Every Red Sox hitter in the projected lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Boston LHBs will have the advantage here. Bassitt has been strong against RHBs (.230 AVG, .263 wOBA, .037 ISO, 2.06 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP) but he has had major issues against LHBs (.295 AVG, .377 wOBA, .158 ISO, 6.75 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.82 WHIP).

+ The Red Sox have been a top-three offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .294 AVG (1st), .849 OPS (2nd), .370 wOBA (2nd), and 136 wRC+ (3rd).

+ The Blue Jays have had a bottom-10 bullpen L2Weeks: 5.21 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, and 1.74 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Red Sox have been the #5 road offense, averaging 4.97 runs/gm (vs. 4.34 runs/gm at home).

- Red Sox: 4.1 implied runs (T-5th lowest on the slate).

- It’s a small sample size, but Bassitt owns the edge in the BvP department. In 32 PA versus the current Red Sox roster, Bassitt has allowed a low .125 AVG and .203 wOBA with a huge 37.5% kRate.

- Bassitt has allowed a low 84.4 mph average exit velo L30Days (top 90th percentile).

- The Red Sox lineup is a little banged up heading into this match-up with multiple starters on the IL and a couple of guys listed as day-to-day.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton (currently DTD but may play)

Bargain Bat: Emmanuel Valdez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), TEX

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/3B Miguel Rojas, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS David Hamilton, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

2B Emmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k| vs. Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Austin Slater, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

1B Dominic Smith, BOS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B Tyler Soderstrom, OAK | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jarren Duran MORE than 0.5 Runs

Spencer Schwellenbach MORE than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!