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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone enjoyed their Father’s Day Sunday! We’re getting back to business with a sizable nine-game Monday main slate that will get going at 6:40 ET. There are several intriguing match-ups on the board today and we’ll have a nice mix of pitching and upside hitters/stacks to choose from. The slate will be headlined by the Coors Field match-up with the Dodgers in town, but that’s certainly not the only promising hitting environment. Weather also looks to be very cooperative today with only one game (SF @ CHC) possessing a low-end chance of a delay. This should be a fun one so let’s lock in and get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CIN @ PIT (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few showers in the general area but chances are they’ll avoid the ballpark altogether, at least until after the game has ended.

• SD @ PHI (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Fairly warm, 80 degrees at first pitch, with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

• DET @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.0 O/U): Mid-to-upper 80s all game, however, there will be ~10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

• SF @ CHC (8:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Low-end chance of a delay, most likely in the later innings. Temps in the 80s with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Bump for bats.

• LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 12.0 O/U): 90 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds OUT to right. Sizable bump for bats at the extremely hitter-friendly Coors Field.

• MIL @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. CIN

We’ve got a trio of ace-caliber arms at the top of the pitching hierarchy today and a strong argument can be made for all three guys (Gray, Fried, and Skenes). We’ll place the spotlight on the exciting young rookie who will find himself in an intriguing match-up. It hasn’t been without a couple of speedbumps along the way, but Paul Skenes has lived up to the hype over his first six MLB starts. Overall, he comes into tonight’s game with a 2.43 xFIP, 1.96 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and an astounding 35.4% kRate (14.4% SwStr%). Ks are the name of the game when it comes to DFS pitching and Skenes’ 8.0 strikeout pitching prop is easily the highest on the slate.

The Reds do possess a young, talented offense that has posted a productive 120 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 9th in MLB). However, they’re hitting for just a .217 AVG with a 27.0% kRate against Skenes’ primary pitch mix of four-seamer (41.5% of pitches), split-finger (30.6%), and slider (17.9%). Cincinnati has plenty of lefty/switch-hitting bats that they can roll out against the young right-handed flamethrower, perhaps as many as six LHBs in the Reds lineup tonight, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Skenes has shown better splits against LHBs this season, allowing just a .197 AVG to that side of the plate to go along with a minuscule 1.77 xFIP and a monstrous 38.5% kRate. It’s going to come with high ownership, but there are plenty of reasons to slot Skenes into DFS lineups once again this evening.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | vs. BOS

Kikuchi sets up as the de facto leader in the “tier two” segment of today’s pitchers. Like most any MLB starter, he’s had a few down games this season but Kikuchi has generally been a rock-solid DFS asset and has scored at least 16.7 DKFP/31 FDFP in 10 of his 14 starts. Overall, he’ll bring a 3.26 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, and 23.6% kRate into tonight’s game. There’s nothing flashy about Kikuchi, or his numbers, but he’s simply a quality arm that turns in sound DFS results much more often than he disappoints. He also turns 33 today so perhaps he’ll have a little extra juice on the mound for his birthday outing!

But, of course, the key draw for Kikuchi will be the match-up. We’ve been targeting any decent lefty that is starting against the BoSox all season and there is no real reason to stop now. Boston’s 28.7% kRate vs. LHPs is easily the highest in MLB and they’ve turned in an exact league average 100 wRC+ against lefty pitching as well. If we break it down even further and look at Kikuchi’s primary arsenal of four-seamer (48.6%), curveball (26.9%), and slider (14.8%), we’ll find that the Red Sox are hitting for a .217 AVG against that pitch mix (from LHPs) to go along with a massive 35.2% kRate, which is just under six percentage points higher than the next closest team (Pirates, 29.3% kRate). Kikuchi has been giving up quite a few barreled balls lately, but if he can keep those to a minimum, we’ll likely see another strong performance from him today.

Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ PIT

There is not a ton to love about the value pitching department today but Carson Spiers will be an intriguing enough arm to take some GPP shots on. This will be his first official start of the 2024 season but he has looked good operating in long relief out of the bullpen over his last few outings. It’s a small sample size of just 15.1 IP, but over his last four appearances, Spiers has come away with a 1.17 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .218 opp AVG, and 24.1% kRate. In 46.2 IP in Triple-A this year, Spiers also procured a promising 2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .195 opp AVG, and 25.4% kRate.

There are strikeouts to be had in this Pirates lineup and their 26.9% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks ranks as the 2nd highest mark in MLB during that span. Their .299 wOBA and 91 wRC+ in that same stretch are well below league-average results as well. The Pirates are also coming off of a road series in Colorado which just wrapped up yesterday, so they could certainly suffer from the infamous “Coors Field hangover” as they transition back to a more neutral hitting environment, especially since they haven’t had an off day in between series. Spiers reached a season-high pitch count of 90 in his previous outing on June 9th while covering 5.2 scoreless innings against the Cubs, so he should be expected to operate with little-to-no pitch count restrictions tonight (barring a blow-up inning). There are some built-in risks with this play, as there are with almost any cheap starting pitcher, but there is also a reasonable pathway to upside at these low-end DFS salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | @ MIA

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.5k | vs. DET

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.7k | vs. NYM

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

+ Braves: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).

+ The Braves are dealing with multiple injuries to key players and have struggled offensively for the better part of two months, but the bats are starting to come around. It’s a very small sample size, but they’ve scored at least six runs in each of their last four games while hitting .283 with a .887 OPS, .380 wOBA, .274 ISO, and 146 wRC+.

+ The Braves rank 2nd in MLB in both HardHit% (43.3%) and exit velocity (90.3 mph), and they’re fourth in barrel% (9.4%). Those hard-hit balls are finally starting to turn into XBHs lately.

+ Reese Olson has not looked great over his last five starts where he has come away with a 6.85 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, .346 opp AVG, .410 opp wOBA, and 17.5% kRate.

+ The Tigers’ bullpen has posted a 4.33 xFIP L2Weeks (9th worst in MLB).

+/- It’ll be hot in Atlanta tonight, which will help well-struck flyballs travel further, but there will also be ~10 mph winds blowing in from left which may neutralize the warm temps a bit.

- Braves are only hitting .227 with a 94 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month and they’re without two key bats (Ronald Acuña Jr. - out for season, and Michael Harris II - out multiple weeks with a hamstring injury).

- I pointed out the 6.85 ERA for Olson over his L5Starts, but that ERA is backed up by a much better 3.73 xFIP in the same span, indicating Olson has been the victim of quite a bit of bad luck.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Jarred Kelenic

Philadelphia Phillies (LHBs Preferred) vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

+ Phillies: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ The Phillies offense has experienced some significant regression in recent weeks (102 wRC+ L2Weeks, ranks 13th) but they do get a key offensive piece back in the lineup today with Trea Turner activated off of the IL (first game back since May 3rd).

+ Phillies RHBs should not be completely ruled out of PHI stacks, but LHBs certainly have the advantage against Randy Vasquez. Against LHBs this season, Vasquez has been awful: .448 opp AVG, .510 opp wOBA, .259 opp ISO, 2.82 WHIP, and 3.18 HR/9 Rate.

+ Following an eight-game road trip, which included the two-game series against the Mets in London, the Phillies are back at home tonight -- they’ve been the #1 home offense in MLB this season, averaging 5.39 runs/gm (vs. 4.60 runs/gm away).

+ The Padres have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.32 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, and .277 opp AVG.

- Vasquez is a candidate to receive some positive regression -- over the last month, he has allowed a low 26.3% HardContact% and an 86.7 mph average exit velo (top 80th percentile).

- Core Phillies bats are quite expensive.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: David Dahl

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Giants lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Giants: 5.5 implied runs (ranks T-1st among non-Coors bats).

+ Excellent hitting conditions at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field this evening with temps in the 80s and 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left.

+ Assad brings a strong 2.81 ERA in his 15th start but regression has hit him in his more recent outings. In his L5Starts, Assad owns a lackluster 5.33 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate.

+ Assad has a respectable 23.1% kRate but he doesn’t miss many bats with a slate-low 6.5% SwStr% -- this could lead to a blow-up inning if his location is off even a little bit.

+ Over the last month, Assad ranks in the bottom 80th percentile in both average batted-ball distance and barreled balls allowed and he has allowed a sizable 33.8% LineDrive%.

+ The Cubs have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.08 ERA and 4.36 xFIP.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this Giants lineup.

- The Giants have been a below-average offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .219 AVG, .655 OPS, .293 wOBA, and 94 wRC+.

Favorite SF Bats: Heliot Ramos, Brett Wisely, Jorge Soler

Bargain Bat: Patrick Bailey

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $5.1k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Kyle Schwarber, CHC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Starling Marte, NYM | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP), MIL

3B Jeimer Candelario, CIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

OF Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

3B Joey Ortiz, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP), MIL

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

2B/SS Brett Wisely, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF David Dahl, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

2B/3B Michael Stefanic, LAA | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP), MIL

OF Forrest Wall, ATL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

1B Trenton Brooks, SF | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

C Sam Huff, TEX | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kyle Schwarber MORE than 8.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Jarred Kelenic MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!