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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday! As usual, to cap off the workweek, we’ll have a substantial main slate ahead of us with a dozen games on the board. This slate will feature a solid stable of pitchers, plenty of stack-worthy offenses, and Coors Field is back in play. Unfortunately, weather is going to be a headache with several games having delay/postponement risks. So we’ll have to put on our amateur meteorologist hats and keep an eye on a few spots today. Let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.0 O/U): Rain arrives around, or a bit ahead of, first pitch. It’s not overly heavy rain so they could perhaps just play through anything that makes its way over the ballpark. Nonetheless, a delay is a possibility. A PPD is a low-end possibility.

• SD @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): This looks like the biggest trouble spot of the evening. A heavy storm system is on its way to New York and, if the current timing holds, a late start at minimum would seemingly be in order. The rain won’t be in a hurry to clear out but it should transition into lighter stuff later in the evening. Regardless, there is some very notable PPD risk here.

• TB @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-90s temps at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to left. Good environment for hitting.

• PIT @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): Scattered storms in the area but, fortunately, the worst of it should be clear, or in the process of clearing, by first pitch. Cautiously optimistic with this one but keep in mind that a delay of some sort is still a decent possibility and a PPD cannot 100% be ruled out. Swirling winds blowing in all directions, but could be 10-15+ mph blowing toward the outfield at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.1k | vs. TB

Excusing his sizable hiccup against the A’s two weeks ago, Sale has been pitching at a Cy Young Award-worthy level all season. Through a dozen starts, he owns a 2.43 xFIP (4th best among MLB starting pitchers), a minuscule 3.7% BB% (also 4th best), and he has allowed a 22.2% HardContact%, which is the lowest among all qualified MLB starters. Along with all of that, he owns an outstanding 31.1% kRate and a slate-best 15.3% SwStr%. So Sale is getting plenty of Ks, he’s surrendering very little hard contact, and he isn’t issuing many free passes. Sale’s most utilized pitch, his slider (40.4% of pitches), has been among the best in baseball, generating a 42.4% Whiff%, 41.6% kRate, and .154 xBA.

While the weather in Atlanta bodes well for hitters, Sale will still draw a promising match-up on his home mound. The Rays 25.3% kRate vs. LHPs is the 4th highest in MLB and, over the last month against LHPs, their 87 wRC+ ranks 25th. While the Braves bats have been slumping for well over a month, the sportsbooks are still pinning Atlanta (-225 ML) as the heaviest favorite on the slate. You’ll have to shell out a huge chunk of salary for him, but Sale simply has the best odds of leading all pitchers in fantasy scoring this evening with so many other top pitchers drawing tougher match-ups.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. TEX

Castillo has had some ugly outings lately but his three recent down games have all come on the road against strong offenses (@ BAL, @ NYY, @ KC). Like multiple other Mariners pitchers, Castillo has been at his best at home this season, which is no surprise considering T-Mobile Park remains the #1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark based on Park Factor. Here’s a quick look at his home/road splits this season:

Home: 42.2 IP, 2.95 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 83.7% Left-on-Base%, 27.7% kRate.

Road: 40.2 IP, 3.76 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 74.4% Left-on-Base%, 21.9% kRate.

So, in a pretty even sample size, we’re seeing very notable differences in Castillo’s home/road performances, specifically in the ERA, xFIP, and kRate departments.

The defending World Series champs have had their fair share of struggles, specifically against right-handed hurlers. Across 271 PA vs. RHPs L2Weeks, the Rangers own a .215 AVG, .264 wOBA, and 67 wRC+ (ranks 28th). They remain a tough team to strike out (19.0% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks, 6th lowest) and they expect to get All-Star shortstop Corey Seager (hamstring) back in the lineup following a five-game absence. Nonetheless, we’re getting Castillo at a moderate discount when considering the fact that he has looked like a totally different pitcher at home this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is one of those games where Castillo cruises through 7+ innings of work, in which case he could probably still pick up a solid strikeout total despite the Rangers’ ability to limit opposing pitcher Ks.

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. OAK

At first glance, this is going to look like a very match-up-driven play but Simeon Woods Richardson has put together a quality season that is deserving of some praise. His 20.3% kRate is not flashy by any means, but he has procured a rock-solid 2.84 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through his ten starts, and he’s also limiting the free passes with a 5.3% BB%. His statcast data from the last month is also full of green (good) figures, specifically the 48.4% GroundBall%, 16.1% LineDrive%, and 86.7 mph average exit velo (top 80th percentile). SWR has made just three home starts this season and, while it may be too small of a sample size to rely on (16.0 IP), it’s worth noting that his kRate has jumped to 28.6% at home to go along with a 2.25 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, and .190 opp AVG.

But, getting to the more obvious draw, the A’s have just been awful at the plate. Against RHPs L2Weeks (405 PA), they rank dead last with each of the following offensive metrics: .188 AVG, .525 OPS, .238 wOBA, 56 wRC+, and 29.1% kRate. They’re also averaging nearly a run less per game on the road this season and Target Field tends to side in the favor of pitching. If you’re looking to save some salary at pitcher today, there is plenty to like about SWR’s potential.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.5k | @ BAL (Monitor weather)

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MIL

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PHI (Monitor weather)

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | @ MIL

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. TBA, PIT

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

+ D-Backs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The D-Backs have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .269 AVG (5th), .789 OPS (4th), .349 wOBA (4th), and 127 wRC+ (4th). Their overall 139 wRC+ L2Weeks ranks 2nd in MLB.

+ Flexen has held it together relatively well lately, allowing no more than two earned runs in each of his previous three starts, but he remains a low-quality starter who has plenty of meltdown potential. Across a dozen starts, he owns a 5.06 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, and 47.4% FlyBall%.

+ Flexen has allowed nine barreled balls L30Days (bottom 10th percentile) along with just a 12.5% SoftContact%.

+ Flexen profiles as a “five and dive” type of starter, so the White Sox bullpen should have to eat up around four innings or so tonight. Over the last two weeks, the CWS bullpen has posted an awful 8.52 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, and .340 opp AVG.

+ Chase Field has ranked as the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

- Flexen has limited his HardContact% to 26.4% L30Days.

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bat: Randal Grichuk

San Francisco Giants vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

+ Giants: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ The Giants have been arguably the best all-around offense vs. LHPs L30Days: .295 AVG (2nd), .897 OPS (1st), .384 wOBA (1st), .221 ISO (2nd), and 156 wRC+ (1st).

+ Tyler Anderson has posted strong surface stats (2.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .205 opp AVG) but he remains a major regression candidate based on his underlying metrics: 5.02 xFIP, 9.5% Barrel%, and an unsustainably low .218 BABIP and 86.6% Left-on-Base%.

+ The Angels have had one of the worst bullpens L2Weeks: 7.29 ERA, 5.77 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, .301 opp AVG, and 1.89 HR/9 Rate.

+ There is not much ownership expected on the Giants with every hitter in the projected lineup having a ≤ 8% pOwn%.

- Oracle Park has been the #4 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

- There is no guarantee that major regression will kick in for Anderson tonight, even though it’s far overdue.

Favorite SF Bats: Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler

Bargain Bat: Austin Slater

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

+ Every hitter in the confirmed CLE lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ The Guardians have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .257 AVG (9th), .764 OPS (9th), .334 wOBA (9th), 121 wRC+ (6th), and 15.1% kRate (2nd lowest).

+ Gausman is a great pitcher but he has had some surprisingly bad splits at home this season: 31.0 IP, 6.68 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .321 opp AVG, and .386 opp wOBA.

+ Gausman ranks in the bottom 5th percentile both average exit velo (93.4 mph) and barreled balls (10) allowed in the L30Days.

+ The Blue Jays bullpen has allowed an MLB-high 1.97 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks.

+ The Guardians have ranked as the #4 road offense this season, averaging 5.11 runs/gm.

- Despite the poor surface stats at home, Gausman’s 3.75 xFIP (at home) suggests he has gotten extremely unlucky.

- Gausman owns the advantage in the BvP department. In 49 PA versus the current CLE roster, Gausman has allowed just a .225 wOBA and 26.5% kRate.

- Guardians: 3.4 implied runs (T-3rd lowest on the slate).

Favorite CLE Bats: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bat: Daniel Schneemann

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. TBA, PIT

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Steven Kwan, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), SF

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK

OF Starling Marte, NYM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Miguel Andujar, OAK | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

3B Jeimer Candelario, CIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

3B/OF Matt Vierling, DET | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Mitch Spencer (RHP), OAK

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), SF

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

SS Paul DeJong, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Randal Grichuk, ARI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Austin Slater, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF/SS Daniel Schneemann, CLE | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Chris Sale MORE than 41.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Corbin Carroll MORE than 0.5 Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!