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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Wednesday brings forth another all-day baseball affair and eight games will land on this evening’s main slate! Today’s MLB newsletter will be slightly condensed as I’ve got a big golf newsletter (U.S. Open!) to wrap up but we’ll still be doing our due diligence for this slate! So let’s see if we can land on the correct arms and find some hitters/stacks NOT named Aaron Judge & the Yankees that have a pathway to success today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Scattered showers in the general area. If one makes its way over the ballpark, they could just play through it but just be mindful that a delay of some sort is a possibility.

• MIA @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

• NYY @ KC (8:10 ET, 11 O/U): Warm temps around 80 degrees at first pitch with winds OUT to left around 10 mph. Great spot for hitters at Kauffman Stadium, which has been the #1 hitter’s park this season. No surprise to see a double-digit total here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.9k | vs. PHI

I’m sure this is probably not the guy most would have seen leading off this pitcher section. If you’re spending up at the position, you’ve got some great options such as the generally reliable Sonny Gray (DK: $10k, FD: $11k) is a plus match-up against the Pirates or Bryce Miller (DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k) who has been leaps and bounds better at home this season, and he draws the often-favorable White Sox match-up.

But we could also keep Pivetta in the mix as a major leverage play. He’ll carry some risk, due to the match-up, but he’s also rocking a stellar 35.6% kRate over his last five starts. Pivetta’s 0.94 WHIP and 13.0% SwStr% also leads all pitchers on the slate. We’ve seen Pivetta go on these strikeout-heavy runs in the past so this isn’t anything particularly new, but he could realistically check in at a third of the ownership as guys like Gray and Miller.

The Phillies have been one of the best and most consistent offenses in the MLB throughout the season but we can’t ignore some of the key injuries they’re dealing with. Trea Turner (hamstring) has been out for a while, JT Realmuto (knee) landed on the 10-day IL yesterday, and Brandon Marsh (hamstring) has been on the IL since June 3rd and is always a pesky bat toward the back of the Phillies lineup. These injuries have put a hot Phillies offense on ice a bit and, over the last two weeks against RHPs, they check in with a subpar 90 wRC+, which ranks 18th in MLB during that span. And, while Fenway Park can still be a hitter’s haven, it’s worth noting that the Phillies have been notably less effective on the road where they average 4.73 runs/gm (vs. 5.39 runs/gm at home). As long as Pivetta’s outing isn’t interrupted by those scattered showers that will be in the Boston area this evening, he has a realistic chance to lead all pitchers in fantasy scoring today and could check in at < 10% ownership.

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ CIN

Getting into the mid-range, Tanner Bibee heads in with some nice form after maintaining a 2.12 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .196 opp AVG, and 26.7% kRate over his last five starts. He’s also been more of a road warrior this season -- Bibee owns an unimpressive 5.06 ERA in 37.1 IP at home, but he boasts a sharp 2.20 ERA across 32.2 IP on the road. And, while Great American Ballpark has historically been one of the most hitter-friendly MLB ballparks, it has trended much closer to a neutral site this season, ranking 16th in offensive Park Factor.

This Reds lineup has some dangerous hitters throughout, but they also offer up plenty of Ks to opposing RHPs. On the season, their 26.4% kRate vs. RHPs trails only the Mariners and A’s, and they own a 25.2% kRate over their last 20 games. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game trends toward a bit of a pitcher’s duel between Bibee and Reds stud lefty Nick Lodolo. However it shakes out, Bibee’s strikeout upside in this match-up will make him an appealing option and I doubt his ownership will be overly high.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIA

Peterson will be a popular SP2 target on DraftKings but if you need the savings for bigger bats or a high-end SP1, I wouldn’t sweat the ownership too much. Peterson opened the season on the 60-day IL while recovering from hip surgery so he only has two MLB starts under his belt in 2024. He’s been a bit volatile in his career but, since the start of 2022, he owns a solid 3.45 xFIP and a strong 26.0% kRate. It also wasn’t uncommon for him to be priced in the $8k range and beyond in recent seasons so he has a track record of being better than a $6k pitcher.

Of course, the primary draw will be his match-up with the unintimidating Marlins offense. Against LHPs over the last month, the Marlins rank 23rd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. They’re not an overly strikeout-prone team (20.4% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days) but it’s worth noting that in 47 PA against Peterson, the current Marlins roster owns a 25.5% kRate paired with a .190 AVG and .225 wOBA. Peterson has also found more success at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field (#2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) where he has averaged +49.1% more FPPG. At these low-end salaries, Peterson is worthy of some DFS shares today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. PIT

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | vs. CWS

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | @ BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Dan Altavilla (RHP)/Daniel Lynch IV (LHP), KC

*Altavilla will serve as the Royals’ opener while Lynch is expected to follow in bulk relief.

+ Yankees: 5.9 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Recommending a Yankees stack is about as obvious as saying “play Coors Field bats” these days, but they’ve been arguably the best offense over the last month: .264 AVG (3rd), .805 OPS (1st), .348 wOBA (1st), .211 ISO (2nd), and 130 wRC+ (1st).

+ Lynch should eat up four or five innings and he hasn’t been great in limited action (16.0 IP) this season, posting a 5.63 ERA, 5.69 xFIP, 17.1% kRate, 14.3% Barrel%, and 46.9% HardHit%.

+ The Royals bullpen has struggled L2Weeks: 5.31 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and 18.8% kRate.

+ Kauffman Stadium (#1 hitter’s park this season) will feature some hot and humid conditions tonight with 10 mph winds blowing out to left.

- The “big two” bats (Judge & Soto) are going to take out a huge chunk of salary.

- A Yankees stack is likely to be fairly chalky on this mid-sized slate.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo

Kansas City Royals vs. Cody Poteet (RHP), NYY

+ Royals: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ I don’t mind loading up on this game in hopes that the high total comes to fruition given the very hitter-friendly conditions. The Royals have been the #1 home offense this season (5.43 runs/gm) and, against RHPs at home, they’ve posted a .275 AVG (1st), .792 OPS (1st), .344 wOBA (3rd), .179 ISO (5th), 117 wRC+ (6th), and 16.5% kRate (1st).

+ In his three MLB starts this season, Poteet has managed to come away with a 1.72 ERA, but his slate-worst 5.49 xERA suggests some massive regression is around the corner.

+ Against Poteet’s primary pitch mix (4-seamer, sinker, changeup, sweeper), the Royals rank 4th with a .351 xwOBA and 3rd with a 44.8% HardHit%.

+ Poteet has allowed an average exit velo of 92.1 mph (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Outside of Bobby Witt Jr. (18% pOwn%), no other Royals hitter has higher than a 9% pOwn%.

- The Yankees have had an above-average bullpen L2Weeks: 3.32 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, .190 opp AVG.

- While Poteet’s xERA is significantly higher than his actual ERA, his 3.87 xFIP is not a horrible figure and he held a potent Dodgers lineup to just two hits and three walks across 4.2 scoreless innings in his last outing.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Nick Loftin

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Mets lineup have a < 5% pOwn%.

+ This stack didn’t work out for us yesterday but it’s still worth mentioning that the Mets have been one of the better offenses against lefty pitching in recent weeks. In 402 PA vs. LHPs L30Days, the Mets own a .283 AVG (3rd), .819 OPS (5th), .359 wOBA (4th), .182 ISO (6th), and 139 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Outside of a random CGSO against Arizona, Garrett has not looked sharp across his five total starts this season, leading to a 5.81 ERA. Against the Mets back on May 18th, he allowed six ER on seven hits and a walk across 4.2 IP.

+ In 102 PA vs. Garrett, the current Mets roster owns a .280 AVG, .362 wOBA, and .386 xwOBA.

+ Garrett has allowed a 92.2 mph average exit velocity (bottom 10th percentile).

-/+ Citi Field is one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB but there will be some 10 mph winds blowing out to center/left which could assist some well-struck flyballs out of the park.

- The Marlins bullpen has been solid L2Weeks: 2.60 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and .200 opp AVG.

- Garrett has been getting unlucky based on his solid 3.47 xFIP. He’s also forcing a ton of groundballs (56.3% GB%) and has a slate-low 3.5% BB%.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez

Bargain Bat: Mark Vientos

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5k | vs. Dan Altavilla (RHP)/Daniel Lynch IV (LHP), KC

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Cody Poteet (RHP), NYY

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. TBA, TEX

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, CIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

3B/SS Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Dan Altavilla (RHP)/Daniel Lynch IV (LHP), KC

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Harrison Bader, NYM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

SS Paul DeJong, CWS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B Nick Loftin, KC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Cody Poteet (RHP), NYY

2B/OF Garrett Hampson, KC | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Cody Poteet (RHP), NYY

1B/3B Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bailey Falter + Sonny Gray LESS than 0.5 First Inning Runs Allowed

Starling Marte MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!