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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Let’s be honest: that six-game slate yesterday was a bit of a snooze, but we’re facing a whole different animal today with a twelve-game main slate on tap! While offensive numbers across the league remain down, I’d say things look fairly balanced today with plenty of great arms to choose from alongside plenty of stack-worthy teams. Minimal weather issues as well, which is a rarity on a slate of this magnitude. Let’s get right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Perhaps a few sprinkles before the game but things should be all clear by first pitch.

• MIA @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Low-end chance of some very light in-game rain. Nothing to concern ourselves over.

• COL @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.5k | vs. STL

Skenes is five starts into his MLB career and it’s pretty apparent that he is the real deal. He hasn’t been completely unhittable at the big league level, as he’s rocking a 3.00 ERA, but that is backed up by a stellar 2.16 xFIP and a mesmerizing 35.5% kRate. It’s also encouraging to see that the Pirates aren’t treating Skenes with baby gloves as they have allowed him to throw between 93 to 100 pitches in each of his last four starts.

The Cardinals' bats have been coming around somewhat in recent weeks and they’re up to an above-average 105 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 11th in MLB). But they could certainly have some issues against this flame-throwing righty today. Skenes specializes in a pitch mix that primarily features his four-seamer (41.4% of his pitches), split-finger (32%), and slider (18.9%). Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Cardinals rank 27th with a .286 wOBA and their 27.8% kRate is the 6th highest in MLB. By my guess, Skenes’ DFS salaries are only going to continue to climb so, even if he comes with some significant ownership, it’s worth grabbing some shares of him this evening.

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CWS

Woo has been throwing some filthy stuff across his six 2024 starts and he ranks in the 94th percentile or better in pitching run value, fastball run value, xERA, xBA, BB%, and Barrel%. Overall, he brings a 1.07 ERA, 1.81 xERA, 0.53 WHIP, and 1.7% BB% into his seventh start of the season. Despite the small-ish sample size, those are some truly microscopic numbers. The kRate isn’t phenomenal at 20.5% but he owns a 23.9% kRate for his career, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if we start to see more Ks out of him moving forward. After not throwing more than 79 pitches in any start this season, he hit 85 pitches across six innings in his last outing, so it would seem as if he’s facing little-to-no restrictions after beginning the year on the IL with an elbow injury.

I don’t like to just automatically pick on the White Sox, especially since they’re proving to be a bit pesky since getting Luis Robert Jr. back into the lineup. But, at best, they’re an average offense when they’re “hot” and a bottom-three offense when they’re at their season-long baseline. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, they own a 94 wRC+ paired with a .217 AVG, .683 OPS, .300 wOBA, .191 ISO, and 24.3% kRate. Their high ISO ranks them 4th in MLB during that stretch, so they’re doing most of their damage with homers. That’s less of a concern as they go up against Bryan Woo, who has allowed just two barreled balls thus far this season (2.2% Barrel%). Not to mention, this game is being played at T-Mobile Park, which has ranked as the #1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Mariners also step in as slate-heavy -220 ML favorites so we have to love Woo’s chances of snagging the win bonus as well.

Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $6.7k | @ SEA

The first two spotlighted pitchers will likely be among the most popular arms on the slate so we’ll switch it up here. There are a couple of right-handers making their MLB debut today with Drew Thorpe for the White Sox and Carlos Rodriguez (DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.2k) for the Brewers. Rostering pitchers making their big league debut is always a big risk, but Thorpe will be the more intriguing option of the two. He’s skipping Triple-A and coming straight up from Double-A ball where he has been excellent this year. Across 11 starts (60.0 IP), he has procured a 1.35 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, .169 opp AVG, and 25.0% kRate. He is currently ranked as the White Sox #3 prospect and the #54 overall prospect in MLB (via MLB.com). Considering he averages about five-and-a-half innings per start, we should assume that he’s set to handle a traditional starter’s workload as well.

To state the obvious, going from facing Double-A hitters to big-league hitters is a massive, massive leap. Fortunately, he’s not making his MLB debut against the fiercest of competition and he gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly ballpark this evening as well. Against RHPs at home this season, the Mariners own a pedestrian .214 AVG and .653 OPS alongside a 98 wRC+ and MLB-high 28.7% kRate. If Thorpe can rack up a decent number of Ks, that will help offset some, or all, of the run production he’s still likely to give up. So, if you’re feeling a little bold, Thorpe has some appeal at his low-end DFS salaries and should check in at < 10% ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | @ BOS

Yusei Kikcuhi (LHP), TOR | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.7k | @ MIL

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

+ Reds: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ The Reds have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .263 AVG (6th), .784 OPS (4th), .343 wOBA (4th), .179 ISO (8th), and 118 wRC+ (5th).

+ McKenzie owns a not-horrible 4.16 ERA through a dozen starts this season, but he’s been getting fairly lucky based on his poor 4.95 xFIP, indicating that some marginal regression is due.

+ McKenzie’s rocking a high 50.6% FlyBall% and 2.01 HR/9 Rate.

+ Over the last month, McKenzie has posted some ugly statcast numbers: 215.9 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 5th percentile), 91.9 mph average exit velo (bottom 10%), and seven barreled balls (bottom 15%).

+ Great American Ballpark is a great hitter’s park.

- The Guardians’ bullpen has been excellent L2Weeks: 1.37 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, and .153 opp AVG.

- Despite having a hitter-friendly home ballpark, the Reds have averaged just 4.03 runs/gm at home this season (vs. 4.74 runs/gm away).

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

+ D-Backs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ The D-Backs have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs this season: .279 AVG (2nd), .776 OPS (3rd), .338 wOBA (4th), and 120 wRC+ (4th).

+ Suarez has 58 career starts but has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen this season, often as a multi-inning reliever. Despite regularly coming into games in more advantageous situations, he has posted some ugly results across his 31.2 IP: 6.54 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and 13.5% BB%.

+ Suarez likely won’t pitch more than three or four innings, leaving the Angels bullpen to handle a heavier workload. Over the L2Weeks, the Angels bullpen has posted some ugly numbers: 5.00 ERA, 5.08 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 17.9% kRate.

+ Chase Field has ranked as the #9 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

- The D-Backs have not been as effective against LHPs in recent weeks. Their 86 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days ranks 22nd in MLB.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Christian Walker

Bargain Bat: Gabriel Moreno

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

+ Every Mets hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Luzardo has looked shaky in his last couple of starts and, albeit a small 16.2 IP sample size, he has struggled to a 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road.

+ The Mets have been excellent versus LHPs L30Days: .295 AVG (3rd), .861 OPS (3rd), .375 wOBA (2nd), .199 ISO (5th), and 149 wRC+ (2nd).

+ The Marlins bullpen has posted a 4.26 xFIP L2Weeks (7th worst).

- Luzardo does own some pretty solid BvP history. In 105 PA against the current Mets roster, Luzardo has held them to a .245 AVG, .288 wOBA, and 22.9% kRate.

- Citi Field: #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Mets are averaging just 3.50 runs/gm at home this season (2nd lowest in MLB).

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, JD Martinez

Bargain Bat: Mark Vientos

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $5k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Brent Suter (LHP), CIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP), MIL

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

3B/SS Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Drew Thorpe (RHP), CWS

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TOR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | Vs. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP), MIL

OF David Dahl, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

2B Spencer Horwitz, TOR | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP), MIL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!