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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a somewhat quiet day across the MLB which will lead to a light six-game main slate that will get underway at 7:40 ET! From a pitching standpoint, you can make a strong argument for just about every arm on this slate but there is at least one downside for nearly every arm as well. However, finding the correct hitters/stacks will undoubtedly be the biggest challenge of the day, but that’s nothing new. There will be zero weather concerns today, which is always a plus. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No notable weather situations to mention today!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CWS

The two most expensive pitchers on this slate will command plenty of attention today. Both Gilbert and Dylan Cease (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k) draw advantageous match-ups at home. However, both guys also haven’t been at the top of their game the last few weeks. Regardless, the chances of these two guys posting the top DFS score on the slate are considerably higher than everyone else in the pitcher pool.

To get the conversation going for Gilbert, let’s take a quick look at his home/away splits:

Home: 3.03 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .198 opp AVG, 28.5% kRate

Away: 3.18 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, .213 opp AVG, 20.6% kRate

His home/away ERAs are pretty identical but Gilbert has shown more notable improvements elsewhere, especially when it comes to his strikeout rate which has jumped nearly eight percentage points at home. And, while his recent DFS scores have not been off the charts, he has been posting some strong statcast figures over the last month, including a low 27.4% HardContact% and just a 29.5% FlyBall Rate.

Loading up on any pitcher facing the White Sox is nothing new, but it’s been particularly advantageous to attack them when they’re playing on the road. The White Sox are averaging an MLB-worst 2.97 runs/gm on the road this season and, against RHPs on the road, they rank dead last in AVG, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while posting a 25.1% kRate (6th highest). Based on Park Factor, T-Mobile Park has been THE least hitter-friendly environment in the MLB and it’s no surprise we’re seeing a slate-low 7.5 over/under in this game. Overall, this will be a great spot for Gilbert to regain some of that elite form he had over the first month of the season.

Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. COL

Not to harp on home/road splits too much, but you really can’t talk about Chris Paddack without bringing it up. Very few starting pitchers have displayed such drastic splits this season:

Home: 3.26 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 86.9% Left-on-Base%, 25.1% kRate (+40.7% FPPG)

Away: 8.20 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, 51.4% Left-on-Base%, 16.0% kRate

Now, just because he’s at home doesn’t mean Paddack is a surefire bet to succeed. His statcast results from the last month are littered with red (bad) figures and his last couple of home outings have not gone overly well. But, getting a match-up with the “road Rockies” is generally going to lead to good things for the opposing pitcher. The Rockies haven’t been awful on the road lately and, based on their 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs on the road over the last month, they’ve been precisely a league-average team. However, their 24.3% kRate in that same span is above league average and there aren’t a ton of power bats in this lineup. Paddack also sets up well from a pitch mix standpoint. His three most utilized pitches have been the four-seamer (41.5%), changeup (27.6%), and slider (18.6%). Against that pitch mix from RHPs when playing away from Coors Field, the Rockies rank 28th with a .279 wOBA and their 30.1% kRate is the highest in MLB. Target Field has also been the #5 most pitcher-friendly park and the Twins (-250 ML) check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate. So, he has plenty of built-in volatility, but this is about as strong of a spot that Paddack could hope for and he won’t break the bank at these current DFS salaries.

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. SF

Arrighetti continues to find his footing in the big leagues and, spanning his last five starts, he has come away with some rock-solid results: 3.55 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, .232 opp AVG, and 27.5% kRate. Walks have been an issue (11.9% BB% L5Games) but he has limited the big hits with just five XBH over those last five outings. It is worth noting that he did get treated to an early exit in his last start, lasting just 3.0 IP on 64 pitches, but that was more of a situational move -- in his previous six starts before that last outing, Arrighetti made it through at least 5.0 IP and threw at least 86 pitches.

The Giants manage to break through with the occasional strong offensive performance but, in general, they struggle to put up more than a few runs. They have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve posted a pedestrian .219 AVG, .601 OPS, .270 wOBA, .104 ISO, 77 wRC+, and 21.6% kRate. The Giants are also averaging 4.03 runs/gm at home this season (vs. 4.51 runs/gm away) at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park (#4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season). He’s more of a DraftKings SP2 play, but Arrighetti checks off several boxes today if you’re in search of a viable value arm.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. OAK

Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | @ SEA

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. TOR

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

+ Padres: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ Against RHPs at home over the L2Weeks, San Diego is boasting a .298 AVG, .891 OPS, .387 wOBA, .221 ISO, 164 wRC+, and 12.7% kRate.

+ Estes only has five MLB starts under his best this season, and he has been good-to-great in four of them. That said, he owns a 6.59 ERA on the road this season and his statcast figures are ugly. Estes has allowed a high 29.7% LineDrive%, 52.7% FlyBall%, and 218.0 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Estes is allowing a lofty .263 ISO to LHBs, so Padres lefty bats deserve a bump.

+ The A’s bullpen owns an MLB-worst 5.21 xFIP L2Weeks.

- Estes is rocking a strong 3.10 xERA and 0.96 WHIP across his five starts.

- In general, the Padres have been noticeably less effective at home this season where they’re averaging 4.09 runs/gm (vs. 4.91 runs/gm away).

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth

Bargain Bat: Jackson Merrill

Minnesota Twins vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

+ Twins: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The Twins have been an above-average offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .722 OPS (11th), .320 wOBA (11th), .165 ISO (12th), and 109 wRC+ (10th).

+ Dakota Hudson is arguably the lowest-quality starter on this slate: 5.25 ERA, 5.46 xERA, 5.12 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 12.6% kRate, and 11.9% BB%.

+ The Rockies have had a bottom-10 bullpen L2Weeks: 5.75 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, and 19.6% kRate.

+ Outside of Royce Lewis, the rest of the Twins lineup is very affordable.

- To no real surprise, Hudson has been much better on the road away from Coors Field: 3.41 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, .200 opp AVG, and 1.14 WHIP.

- The Twins are averaging just 3.79 runs/gm at home -- essentially a run lower per game than their 4.78 runs/gm average on the road.

- Target Field is the fifth least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite MIN Bats: Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach

Bargain Bat: Carlos Santana

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals (RHBs Preferred) vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

+ 6-of-9 hitters in the Royals lineup have a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Rodon has been less effective on the road where he owns a 4.62 xFIP and a high 1.73 HR/9 Rate.

+ Against RHBs, Rodon has a lackluster 4.71 xFIP and has allowed a .197 ISO, and the Royals are deploying nine RHBs in their lineup today.

+ Rodon has come away with some strong results lately but his statcast data suggests some regression is due. Over the last month, he has allowed a 91.6 mph average exit velo (bottom 15th percentile), seven barreled balls (bottom 15%), and 205.3 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 10%).

+ Based on Park Factor, Kauffman Stadium has been the #1 hitter’s ballpark this season.

+ The Royals have been the #1 home offense in baseball, averaging 5.66 runs/gm.

-/+ The Yankees bullpen has been “good, not great” L2Weeks: 3.54 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, and .205 opp AVG.

- Rodon brings a solid 3.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 23.7% kRate into his 14th start of the season.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Hunter Renfroe

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

SS JP Crawford, SEA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TOR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

C Mitch Garver, SEA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

SS Paul DeJong, CWS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

2B Nick Loftin, KC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

2B Spencer Horwitz, TOR | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

SS Adael Amador, COL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!