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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll close the book on the month of May with a big boy 13-game Friday main slate! As a general overview, things look fairly balanced between pitching and hitting, and I don’t believe it’s a major surprise to see that most games on this slate (nine, to be exact) have an over/under of either 8.0 or 8.5 runs. There aren’t many dominant arms to choose from, but instead, a slew of “decent-to-good” pitchers will be taking the mound this evening. So we’ll see which offenses eventually break through and PRODUCE! On the weather front, there is really only one game (SD @ KC) to monitor closely -- clear skies everywhere else. One trouble game out of 13 is a ratio we’ll take any day of the week! Let’s hit the weekend on a high note! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): Winds IN from left, a bit left-to-right, around 10 mph.

• OAK @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds mostly IN from left near 10 mph.

• SD @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain never hits “downpour” levels but it’s pretty consistent throughout the day and won’t fully clear until the late evening. If field conditions remain safe and playable, they may choose to just play through the wet weather. A late start and play is also on the table along with an outright postponement, perhaps in favor of a doubleheader tomorrow. Anything could happen here so just approach this game with a fair amount of caution.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. COL

Had the weather not been a concern, I may have chosen to lead off this section with who I believe to be the best overall arm on this slate, Dylan Cease (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k). However, we’ll call an audible and kick things off by spotlighting Buehler out of the $8k range. Buehler, of course, got a late jump on the season as he made his return from August 2022 Tommy John surgery and he has clearly shown some rust through his initial four starts. However, his 4.26 ERA is backed up by a much better 3.45 xFIP and he has limited opposing hitters to a 27.5% HardHit%, which is technically the best mark on this slate (albeit in fewer starts than most other pitchers today). Buehler hit a 91-pitch count in his most recent start, suggesting that he’s now playing with little-to-no restrictions. He’s also back at home this evening and in his most recent home start (5/18 vs. CIN), he looked like his old self, needing just 78 pitches to cover six full shutout innings where he allowed only three hits, zero walks, and he struck out seven -- good for 29.7 DKFP/49 FDFP.

People often reference the “Coors Field hangover” when discussing offenses that are coming off of an away series played at Coors Field and how those hitters can regularly end up slumping for a game or two as they adjust back to a more “normal” hitting environment. However, the Coors hangover isn’t brought up as much when it comes to the Rockies following a lengthy home stand, such as the six-game home stand they just wrapped up on Wednesday. To no surprise, the “road Rockies” are clearly less effective than the “home Rockies” and that is reflected in their runs per game averages this season -- 4.72 runs/gm at home, 3.83 runs/gm on the road. Against RHPs on the road this season, Colorado checks in with a .672 OPS (ranks 20th), .297 wOBA (20th), 92 wRC+ (20th), and 25.5% kRate (5th highest). It’s yet to be determined if Buehler is fully back to his old self but, at these price points, it’s worth the risk to find out. The Dodgers also step in as massive -360 ML favorites today so Buehler should be about as strong of a bet as any to put himself in line to earn the win bonus.

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.4k | vs. PIT

Longtime MLB DFS players are probably aware that Berrios tends to be at his best when he’s pitching on his home mound. His career ERA is over a run lower at home and his kRate also jumps by four percentage points. The same trend has been true up to this point this season -- across four home starts (26.2 IP), Berrios has locked in an excellent 1.69 ERA, .204 opp AVG, and 0.94 WHIP. All four of those home outings have resulted in quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER).

Berrios will take on a Pirates offense that has mustered only an 88 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days (ranks 25th) to go along with a lofty 26.1% kRate. There are some solid hitters in this lineup, a few of which are heating up at the plate over the last week or so but, overall, it’s a beatable match-up. It also doesn’t hurt that Berrios’ most-used pitch is his sinker, which he has thrown on over 35% of his pitches. Against RHP sinkers, the Pirates rank 29th in AVG (.210) and wOBA (.269), 28th in ISO (.084) and dead last in xwOBA (.321). Berrios also has some nice BvP going for him. Against the current Pirates roster, he has accounted for a .222 opp AVG, .298 opp wOBA, and 30.5% kRate. While he may not be a super exciting pitcher who racks up a ton of Ks, Berrios remains a reliable option at home where he has a long track record of producing his best results.

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | @ SEA

Soriano made his MLB debut as a reliever in 2023, and put together a quality rookie campaign which resulted in a 3.64 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and 30.3% kRate across 42.0 IP. He’s now enjoying further success as a traditional starter in 2024. Soriano’s first two appearances this season came out of the bullpen but his last nine outings have all been starts. On the year, he has acquired a respectable 3.61 ERA that is on par with his 3.60 xFIP, and he’s rocking an above-average 1.18 WHIP and 23.3% kRate. Soriano is a flamethrower whose average fastball velocity of 98.3 mph ranks him in the 97th percentile. He’s also inducing a ton of groundballs this season. Soriano’s 62.5% Groundball Rate ranks 3rd among all MLB starters, behind only Framber Valdez and Max Fried. Over the last month, his GB% has risen to 65.9% and he’s allowing just a 13.4% LineDrive%, 20.7% FlyBall%, and 117.3 feet average batted-ball distance (top 95th percentile). It’s also worth noting that Soriano has been lights-out on the road this season where he has boasted a 1.67 ERA across 32.1 IP and, based on Park Factor, T-Mobile Park has ranked as the #1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark.

It’s been a hot minute since I’ve spotlighted a pitcher who was facing off with the Mariners. There hasn’t been any particular reason for that, but I did feel like it was getting somewhat repetitive constantly highlighting any decent arm that drew the Seattle match-up. As most are aware, this Mariners offense has been the most strikeout-prone team in baseball. Against RHPs this season, they own an MLB-high 29.3% kRate, and their kRate is over 30% against RHPs in the last two weeks. Furthermore, Seattle’s 47.5% Groundball Rate vs. RHPs L2Weeks is the 2nd highest in baseball. So, when they’re not striking out, they’ve been pounding the ball into the dirt. It seems to me that this is a great spot where Seattle’s weaknesses could work to the advantage of Soriano’s strengths. He’ll likely draw a fair amount of attention/ownership today, but he sets up very well out of the bargain bin range.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k | @ KC (Monitor weather)

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k | vs. DET

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9k | vs. OAK

Luis Severino (RHP), NYM | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ARI

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.1k | @ ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Cleveland has been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs over the last month: .766 OPS (7th), .334 wOBA (8th), .211 ISO (3rd), and 120 wRC+ (7th).

+ Corbin continues to be one of the lowest quality starters in baseball -- this season he owns a slate-worst 6.12 ERA, 6.37 xERA, 1.69 WHIP, and 48.2% HardHit% to go alongside a low 13.2% kRate.

+ Corbin has struggled more on the road where he has posted a 6.68 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and 12.0% kRate.

+ Corbin has allowed 13 barreled balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Attacking Corbin is generally a popular play, but every Guardians hitter in the projected lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Progressive Field is not generally known as a hitter’s park, but it has ranked as the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season based on Park Factor.

+ Lead-off man Steven Kwan returns to the lineup after missing the last 23 games with a hamstring injury.

-/+ Washington’s bullpen has allowed a low .211 AVG and 1.12 WHIP L2Weeks, but they’ve also posted a subpar 4.58 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, and 19.5% kRate.

-/+ Guardians: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-9th on the slate).

- The Guardians are coming off of a road series in Colorado so we may see the “Coors Field hangover” in effect.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, David Fry, Steven Kwan

Bargain Bat: Tyler Freeman

Baltimore Orioles vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

+ Orioles: 4.4 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ Civale began the year strong but has been a mess lately -- over his last seven starts (33.2 IP), he has recorded a 7.75 ERA, .304 opp AVG, .380 opp wOBA, and 1.63 WHIP.

+ Over the last month, Civale has forced just an 11% SoftContact% next to a high 27.4% LineDrive% and 91.3 mph average exit velocity (bottom 15th percentile).

+ The Orioles have been the #4 home offense, averaging 5.07 runs/gm.

+ Against RHPs at home L2Weeks, the O’s have posted a .336 wOBA, .184 ISO, 123 wRC+, and 15.6% kRate.

+ Rays have had a below-average bullpen L2Weeks: 4.14 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and 19.6% kRate.

+ I’m not sure if they’ll be super low-owned but, at the time of this writing, every Orioles hitter in the projected lineup has a < 5% pOwn%.

- Civale has not pitched as bad as the 7.75 ERA from his L7Starts would indicate based on his 4.20 xFIP in that same span.

- On the season, the Orioles have just been a barely-above-average offense vs. RHPs based on their 103 wRC+ (ranks 12th).

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle

Bargain Bat: Ramon Urias

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

+ Every hitter in the projected Tigers lineup has a ≤ 7% pOwn% & any DET stack provides nice leverage against a moderately high-owned (15-20%) Tanner Houck.

+ Looking to strike while the iron’s hot here as the Tigers lead the MLB over the last week in OPS (.847), wOBA (.360), ISO (.251), and wRC+ (136).

+ Houck averages -25.4% less FPPG at home.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in the Tigers lineup, many of which that have contributed to their recent success at the plate.

-/+ The Red Sox bullpen has come away with a lackluster 4.87 ERA, .286 opp AVG, and 1.44 WHIP over the L2Weeks, but their 3.17 xFIP in that same span is the 3rd best mark in MLB, so they’ve pitched better than those surface stats would indicate.

- Houck is having an excellent season (1.90 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 24.4% kRate, 0.13 HR/9 Rate) and he’s not an easy pitcher to string multiple runs against.

- Tigers: 3.6 implied runs (ranks T-7th lowest on the slate).

Favorite DET Bats: Matt Vierling, Wenceel Perez, Riley Greene

Bargain Bat: Colt Keith

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Sixto Sanchez (RHP), MIA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF JD Martinez, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

3B/OF Matt Vierling, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Adam Duvall, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

2B Nick Gonzales, PIT | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Tyler Freeman, CLE | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B Josh Bell, MIA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

3B Joey Ortiz, MIL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), CWS

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TOR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

2B/SS David Hamilton, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET

OF Miguel Andujar, OAK | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

OF Travis Jankowski, TEX | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Sixto Sanchez (RHP), MIA

3B Ramon Urias, BAL | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Wilyer Abreu MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

David Fry MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!