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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Per usual, Thursday is going to feature a light MLB schedule but, at the very least, we do have a little four-game evening main slate to get into! Slates of this miniature stature provide their own unique challenges. Inevitably, ownership is going to be more heavily focused on fewer pitchers and hitters/stacks than usual. Picking and choosing the right spots to eat some chalk while taking some risks on lower-owned players elsewhere seems to often be the recipe to success on small slates. We’ll see if we can put together the right level of contrarianism today! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): A few stray showers around this evening but nothing significant enough to cause any problems.

• WAS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Around 80 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

• NYY @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.3k | @ BOS

After overcoming several injuries in recent seasons, Flaherty is putting together an impressive resurgent 2024 campaign. He has procured a less-than-spectacular 3.84 ERA through his ten starts this season, but Flaherty has pitched considerably better than his ERA would indicate. His xERA of 2.76 is over a run lower than his actual ERA and his 2.03 xFIP leads not only all pitchers on this slate but all starting pitchers in all of MLB. Of course, the major appeal for Flaherty from a DFS perspective comes from his incredible strikeout prowess. Flaherty’s 33.3% kRate ranks 2nd among all MLB starters and he has upped that to a 37.3% kRate across his last five starts.

The Red Sox are best attacked with lefty pitching but there are some reasons to like this match-up for Flaherty this evening. Boston has maintained a middling 22.2% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks to go along with an above-average 104 wRC+. However, if we look at Flaherty’s primary pitch mix that features the four-seamer (43.3% of his pitches), slider (31.7%), and knuckle curve (18.3%), we’ll find that the Red Sox own a lofty 27.7% kRate (5th highest) against that combined pitch mix. Flaherty’s slider and knuckle curve have been particularly deadly and he’s generating over a 40% Whiff% on both pitches. Flaherty will draw plenty of ownership tonight but he’s a piece of chalk that is worth sliding into lineups.

Christian Scott (RHP), NYM | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ARI

Now that his DFS prices have dipped to more tolerable ranges, Christian Scott sets up as an appealing value option today. He’s still finding his footing at the MLB level as he prepares to make his fifth career big league start, but he has provided a rock-solid 3.30 xERA and 1.10 WHIP thus far. The strikeout rate is also decent at 22.8% and, when taking into account his 12.1% SwStr%, we can assume that his overall kRate will start to creep up closer to around 25%. He’ll also be toeing the rubber at home tonight in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field (#1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2024).

Scott will draw a decent match-up against a D-Backs squad that owns a middling .304 wOBA and 97 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks to go along with a higher-than-average 24.2% kRate. We’ll also like how Scott’s primary pitches (four-seamer, slider, sweeper) line up against the D-Backs. Against those three combined pitches (from RHPs), the D-Backs have posted just a .198 AVG (ranks 29th), .279 wOBA (29th), .127 ISO (25th), and a 25.5% kRate (11th highest). So, while he’s likely another guy who is going to draw plenty of ownership, he makes for a prime SP2 candidate on DraftKings and an attractive cheap SP play if you’re looking to spend up on several big bats over on FanDuel.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. DET

Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ ATL

Ray Kerr (LHP), ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Yankees: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate)

Sandoval has not had a great season up to this point and he has really struggled at home where he has gone on to post a 7.11 ERA, .324 opp AVG, and 1.74 WHIP across 25.1 IP. I’ve preferred stacking the Yankees when they’re taking on a RHP starter but they’ve been perfectly fine against lefties in recent weeks -- their 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month checks in at 7th in MLB. The Yankees have also been a bit better on the road this season where they’ve averaged 4.84 runs/gm (vs. 4.65 runs/gm at home). The Angels bullpen has managed to maintain a low 2.45 ERA and .177 opp AVG over the L2Weeks but their 4.62 xFIP (6th worst) in that same span indicates some significant regression is due. They also burned four of their best relievers in yesterday’s low-scoring game, which bodes well for any Yankees stack after Sandoval is retired for the evening.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto

Bargain Bat: Gleyber Torres

Other Stacks to Consider

Los Angeles Angels vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Favorite LAA Bats: Luis Rengifo, Kevin Pillar, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Jo Adell

Atlanta Braves vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

Favorite ATL BAts: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain bat: Sean Murphy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the confirmed NYM lineup has a projected ownership under 10%, which is a rarity on such a small slate. Gallen is, of course, an excellent pitcher, but he continues to display some notable home/road splits. Gallen’s 4.33 ERA on the road this season is more than double his 2.05 home ERA, and he has given up five HRs (1.67 HR/9 Rate) on the road compared to just one HR (0.29 HR/9 Rate) at home. The Mets have not been spectacular on offense by any means, but their 104 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks ranks them 12th in MLB and they’ve also shown a decent amount of pop with a .170 team ISO in that same span. If they can knock Gallen off the mound relatively early, they’ll see extra at-bats against a D-Backs bullpen that has posted a 1.38 WHIP (6th highest) and 4.24 xFIP (8th worst) this season. Even running a small two or three-man mini Mets stack would be a good way to differentiate lineups today.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, JD Martinez, Starling Marte

Bargain Bat: DJ Stewart

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ray Kerr (LHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B/OF Matt Vierling, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

OF JD Martinez, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

OF Jesse Winker, WAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ray Kerr (LHP), ATL

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

2B/SS David Hamilton, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

2B Colt Keith, DET | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have you covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!