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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another split-slate Wednesday hits the docket and, as the afternoon action winds down, we’ll have a seven-game evening main slate waiting in the wings. Perhaps it’s not the sexiest seven-gamer we’ve seen this season, but I believe it’ll be a fun set of games and match-ups. Similar to yesterday, I’d say the overall pitching is stronger than the overall offenses but, as usual, certain teams will procure better-than-expected results and we’ve also got another Coors Field game to take into consideration. There are also no significant weather concerns, which is always a welcomed addition! Let’s break it down! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• WAS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Quality hitting conditions.

• KC @ MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light winds IN from center/right.

• TOR @ CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): 5-10 mph winds OUT to center/right.

• CLE @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): A stray shower could make its way over the ballpark but nothing to be overly concerned about.

• NYY @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds around 10 mph blowing OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.5k | @ LAA

I don’t believe it would be a stretch to consider Luis Gil to be one of the bigger pitching surprises this season. He got off to a decent start in this 2024 season, although his final lines were routinely plagued by walks. However, he’s cut back on the free passes lately and he has been lights-out in the month of May. Across his five starts since May 1st (30.1 IP), Gil has gone on to post a sensational 0.59 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, .117 opp AVG, and 31.0% kRate. The xFIP suggests some regression is due, but it’s far from a poor figure.

Despite losing Mike Trout in late April for an extended period of time, the Angels have managed to be a fairly scrappy offense. However the bats have cooled off recently and against RHPs over the last week, they’re hitting just .213 with a .279 wOBA, 79 wRC+, and 23.3% kRate. They’ve also managed a low 6.0% BB% in that span, which bodes well for Gil since he has issued multiple walks in all but two starts this season. The Yankees (-210 ML) check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and Gil is riding a five-game quality start streak, which he should be able to extend to six games tonight.

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ ATL

Gore has a touch of volatility to him but, by all means, he has stitched together a solid 2024 campaign thus far. Through his ten starts, he has maintained a rock-solid 3.04 ERA which is backed up by a 3.25 xFIP (2nd best on the slate) and 27.6% kRate (3rd best on the slate). He has also been even more impressive in road games this season where he has gone on to procure a 2.42 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, and 32.6% kRate. We’ve seen Gore peak at 11 Ks in a single game this season and he heads into tonight’s game with at least 8 Ks in two of his last three.

While it pains me to say it, the current version of the Braves offense is not one we should shy away from attacking with opposing pitchers. Like any MLB team, they can pop off on any given night, but the big offensive games have been far and few in between, and now they’re without Ronald Acuña Jr. (torn ACL) for the remainder of the season. Against LHPs over their last 20 games, the Braves are hitting for a pedestrian .235 AVG with a .302 wOBA and 25.8% kRate. And, while it’s not too extensive, MacKenzie Gore has some pretty strong BvP history against Atlanta. In 51 PA versus the current Braves roster, Gore has held them to a .159 AVG, .255 wOBA, and 23.5% kRate. I don’t believe Gore will fly too far under the radar, but most DFS players are probably still going to be hesitant to roster an SP against the Braves even though they’ve been slumping at the plate for a solid month and are now playing without the reigning NL MVP.

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. WAS

We’ll hop to the other side of this game and spotlight a young right-hander making his MLB debut. As always, rostering any pitcher in their big league debut is going to be fairly risky and, in Spencer Schwellenbach’s case, he hasn’t even pitched at the Triple-A level yet. But he’s a highly touted pitcher who ranks as the 3rd overall prospect in the Braves system. The last “Spencer S.” the Braves called up early also worked out pretty well. Across 45 innings at Single-A and Double-A, Schwellenbach has procured a 1.80 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and 51:10 K:BB ratio. He’s put up those gaudy numbers despite [reportedly] being asked to limit throwing his slider, which is the best pitch in his arsenal.

Washington has their fair share of pesky bats in the lineup but they’ve accounted for a .215 AVG (ranks 26th) and 84 wRC+ (25th) against RHPs over the last month. They’re not an overly strikeout-prone team, but there are Ks to be had, specifically toward the back half of the lineup with guys like Joey Gallo (42.0% kRate vs. RHPs), Nick Senzel (28.9%), and Eddie Rosario (27.3%). Atlanta will likely be cautious with Schwellenbach in his first career MLB start but, unless he runs into a ton of trouble early, I would expect him to cover 5+ innings tonight. At the very least, he’s intriguing from a value perspective on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIL

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ MIN

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | @ SEA

Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cleveland Guardians vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

Non-Coors Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

+ Blue Jays: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st among non-Coors teams).

+ The Blue Jays continue to be a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .816 OPS (4th), .357 wOBA (4th), .208 ISO (2nd), 133 wRC+ (4th), and 16.4% kRate (2nd lowest).

+ Flexen is a low-quality starter who has posted a 5.69 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, and 17.1% kRate this season.

+ Toronto owns some strong BvP against Flexen: 85 PA, .299 AVG, .407 wOBA, and 15.5% kRate.

+ There has been nothing special about this White Sox bullpen L2Weeks: 4.13 ERA, 4.43 xFIP, and 1.50 WHIP.

- Flexen has allowed an average exit velocity of 86.5 mph L30Days (top 80th percentile).

- This does look to be a somewhat chalky stack with five Blue Jay hitters projected for 14+% ownership.

Favorite TOR Bats: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Davis Schneider

Bargain Bat: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Chicago Cubs vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

+ Cubs: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Bryse Wilson has maintained a strong 2.86 ERA this season but that is backed up by a lackluster 4.43 xERA and 4.40 xFIP, suggesting some sizable regression is due.

+ Wilson’s 46.7% HardHit% allowed is by far the highest among today’s starters.

+ Due to some recent offensive struggles, the Cubs’ salaries have steadily dropped to affordable price points.

+ There shouldn’t be too much ownership on Cubs bats today -- 8-of-9 hitters have < 10% pOwn%.

- The Cubs have been cold at the plate and their 68 wRC+ L2Weeks ranks dead last in MLB.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman

Bargain Bat: Nico Hoerner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

+ Every hitter in the projected Astros lineup has a < 7% pOwn%.

+ Kirby has struggled over his last five starts: 4.50 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 2.10 HR/9 rate, and 15.7% kRate.

+ The Astros have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .293 AVG (1st), .833 OPS (2nd), .361 wOBA (2nd), .190 ISO (4th), and 136 wRC+ (2nd).

+ The Mariners bullpen owns a 5.35 ERA over the L2Weeks.

- T-Mobile Park has ranked as the least hitter-friendly ballpark this season and the Astros have been less explosive on the road, averaging 3.96 runs/gm (vs. 4.93 runs/gm at home).

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Jake Meyers

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Travis d’Arnaud, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Adam Duvall, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B/OF Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

1B/OF Gavin Sheets, CWS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

2B/3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TOR | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Johnathan Rodriguez, CLE | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF Kevin Kiermaier, TOR | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jose Ramirez MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Luke Raley MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!