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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

After a slow MLB day on Thursday, we’ll have a sizable slate ahead this Friday evening with 11 games on the docket. Some ugly weather could slim this slate down by a game or two, so just be mindful of that -- more info in the weather section below. For an 11-gamer, pitching is going to be pretty sketchy today, and it’s a little top-heavy, but, per usual, there will be guys who exceed expectations, specifically in the middle & lower pricing tiers. There are plenty of viable hitters/stacks on the board and Coors Field is once again back in play (chalk Phillies incoming). So let’s get into it and head into the long Memorial Day weekend on a high note! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIL @ BOS (7:10 ET): Mid-70s at first pitch with 10 mph winds OUT to right. Nice bump to bats.

• TEX @ MIN (7:10 ET): Noticeable 15 mph winds OUT to center/left.

• LAD @ CIN (7:10 ET): Very low-end chance of a delay due to rain.

• BAL @ CWS (7:40 ET): Major trouble spot here as storms, potentially of the severe variety, look to be an issue all evening. A postponement seems to be the likely outcome here so, for the purposes of this newsletter, no players from this game will be considered/mentioned. If they do somehow end up playing, there will be 15+ mph winds blowing IN from center.

  Update: The forecast is starting to look a little better with storms potentially holding off until after the game. Still something we’ll need to keep a close eye on.

• CHC @ STL (8:15 ET): Scattered storms move into the area right around first pitch and may not be in a hurry to leave. The overall outlook isn’t quite as bad as in Chicago since they could get lucky and manage to dodge the storms, but the delay/PPD risk remains fairly high in this one. If they play, there will be upper-70s temps with 10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

• PHI @ COL (8:40 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to left at times, more right-to-left for much of the game.

• CLE @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

• HOU @ OAK (9:40 ET): Winds tend to not have as much of an impact in some of these West Coast stadiums but the 15 mph winds blowing OUT to center here tonight could matter somewhat.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. MIA

With weather concerns for the other top two pitchers on this slate (Imanaga & Burnes), we’ll move to spotlighting Gallen to lead things off… a bit by default, but he’s in a strong spot regardless. Gallen has displayed notable home/road splits for a while now and those splits have been fairly apparent once again this season. A quick look at his home/road splits thus far in 2024:

Home: 23.2 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, .200 opp AVG, 1.01 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9, 28.0% kRate

Road: 27.0 IP, 4.33 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, .240 opp AVG, 1.19 WHIP, 1.67 HR/9, 25.9% kRate

So, while Gallen’s home/road xFIPs are pretty identical, there are some very apparent improvements everywhere else when he’s pitching on his home mound.

The Marlins are, at best, an average offense versus RHPs and that is reflected by their 101 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks. They’ve been largely a contact offense that does not possess much power (.127 ISO vs. RHPs, ranks 27th) and their kRate against RHPs has crept up to 23.0% L2Weeks. We haven’t seen massive upside out of Gallen yet this season but, on a somewhat sketchy slate for pitching, he makes plenty of sense even at these five-figure price tags. Gallen has averaged 23.6 DKFP/41.8 FDFP across his four home starts this season and we’ll be content if he posts a similar score tonight. It is worth noting that he is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury but he’s been pitching through the discomfort lately.

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. NYY

Attacking the Yankees is generally not going to be a great idea but Darvish has been completely locked in. He’s coming off of back-to-back starts against the Braves and Dodgers and, in each game, he pitched seven shutout innings while allowing only two hits and a walk to go along with 16 total strikeouts. Darvish hasn’t allowed a single run across his last four starts and, in that stretch, along with his zero ERA, he has procured a tremendous 2.81 xFIP, 0.54 WHIP, .123 opp AVG, and 28.6% kRate. He may be in his age 37 season but he has been flashing prime Darvish form against some formidable opponents recently.

Based on their 128 wRC+ on the season, and 144 wRC+ L2Weeks, the Yankees have been the best offense in baseball against RHPs, and they don’t strike out a ton either. But I’m a believer in the saying “Good pitching beats good hitting” and Darvish has been more than good over the last month. It also helps a bit that Darvish will be at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park tonight. The risk is apparent with the scary match-up ahead but you won’t find many, if any, SPs that feel “risk-free” on this slate and Darvish has been laughing in the face of “scary match-ups” lately.

Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. LAD

I don’t believe I’ve spotlighted a single pitcher this season that was scheduled to go up against either the Dodgers or Yankees, and here I am doing it with two pitchers in the same article. Kinda telling as to how rough the SP pool is today. Ashcraft is merely an adequate MLB starter who, through nine starts, owns a 4.25 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, and 18.7% kRate. Not inspiring numbers but the hope here is that he’ll benefit from a slumping Dodgers offense.

Over the last two weeks against RHPs (432 PA), the Dodgers are batting just .204 (ranks 28th) with a .618 OPS (27th), .273 wOBA (29th), 78 wRC+ (27th), and 25.2% kRate (6th highest). Now, this offense clearly isn’t going to be down for long, and they’ll be seeing Ashcraft for the second time in the span of a week. But if those recent struggles against RHPs continue to bleed into tonight’s game, then Ashcraft could realistically make a push for 20 DKFP/35 FDFP. While it’s a considerable risk, I’m seeing folks dropping some “likes” on LineStar for guys like Miles Mikolas and the Coors Field pitchers. If dedicated to the idea of playing a cheap pitcher, I’d rather take a gamble on Ashcraft than any of those guys. We’ll see how it plays out!

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | @ STL (Monitor weather)

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.5k | @ SD

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.8k | @ OAK

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ NYM

Christian Scott (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

+ Astros: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Stripling has been very underwhelming this season: 5.19 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and 13.7% kRate.

+ The Astros have been the #1 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .290 AVG, .854 OPS, .369 wOBA, .206 ISO, and 141 wRC+.

+ The Astros just faced Stripling 11 days ago so his “stuff” will be pretty fresh in their memory.

+ The A’s bullpen has been used heavily taxed lately and has thrown 182 pitches over the last two days -- this bodes well for Houston considering Stripling often struggles to pitch more than five innings.

+ While it matters less than in other ballparks, there will be 15+ mph winds blowing out at Oakland Coliseum tonight.

- Stripling owns some surprisingly decent BvP history against the current Astros roster: 69 PA, .203 opp AVG, and .240 opp wOBA.

- The Astros have been less effective on the road where they’re averaging 4.14 runs/gm (vs. 4.93 runs/gm at home).

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena

Bargain Bat: Jake Meyers

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

+ The D-Backs have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs: .292 AVG (1st), .810 OPS (2nd), .353 wOBA (2nd), .172 ISO (4th), 129 wRC+ (2nd), and 18.0% kRate (2nd lowest).

+ Garrett has only made two starts this season, but he is allowing a very high 93.0 mph average exit velocity to go along with a 1.55 WHIP.

+ In 45 PA vs. Garrett, the current D-Backs roster owns a .308 AVG, .379 wOBA, and 15.6% kRate.

+ This should be a low-owned stack with 8-of-9 D-Backs hitters having a ≤ 6% pOwn%.

-/+ D-Backs: 4.2 implied runs (ranks 10th among non-Coors teams).

-/+ The Marlins have had a middling bullpen L2Weeks: 3.91 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP.

-/+ The D-Backs have been a very average offense L2Weeks based on their 98 wRC+ in that span.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Kevin Newman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

+ Every hitter in the projected LAA lineup has a ≤ 7% pOwn%.

+ The Angels have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs L2Weeks: .299 AVG (4th), .887 OPS (2nd), .381 wOBA (2nd), .243 ISO (2nd), 147 wRC+ (5th), and 16.2% kRate (2nd lowest).

+ Allen is allowing a 91.8 mph average exit velo L30Days (bottom 10th percentile) to go along with a lackluster 4.03 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 15.0% HR/FB Rate.

+ Allen is allowing a .371 wOBA and .220 ISO to RHBs; the Angels should have seven RHBs in their lineup tonight.

+ Based on park factor, Angel Stadium has ranked as the #1 hitter’s park this season and there will be some 10 mph winds blowing out to center tonight.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this LAA lineup.

- The Guardians bullpen has been sharp L2Weeks: 3.06 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and .182 opp AVG.

- Allen is averaging +31.6% more FPPG on the road.

- Angels: 4.0 implied runs (T-6th lowest on the slate).

Favorite LAA Bats: Luis Rengifo, Kevin Pillar, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Jo Adell

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD:  $4.5k| vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

C JT Realmuto, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

1B/OF David Fry, CLE | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF JD Martinez, NYM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Tyler Stephenson, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), MIL

1B/C Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

SS Edmundo Sosa, PHI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF Kevin Pillar, LAA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

SS Kevin Newman, ARI | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

David Fry MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Kevin Pillar MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!