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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A loaded MLB Tuesday arrives, but with so many games landing in the 6 o’clock ET window, the main slate action will be condensed down into an eight-gamer. We’ve got a nice mix of enticing arms and high-upside offenses to choose from so this should be a fun one! Weather-wise, we’ll need to keep a close eye on the BAL @ STL game -- other than that, no significant issues are expected. Let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ KC (7:40 ET): 15+ mph winds OUT to right. Solid bump to bats.

• ATL @ CHC (7:40 ET): Rain arrives later in the evening but, barring any sluggish play, the game will likely be wrapped up by the time those storms move in. Hitting conditions will be excellent at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Winds blowing around 20+ mph OUT to left with warm-ish temps in the mid-70s. Prime conditions for some homers and you may notice the lofty 11.5 over/under here.

• BAL @ STL (7:45 ET): Looks like they’ll be able to start dry and play much of the game without any issues but some moderate-to-heavy rains could move in during the later innings. It would seem beneficial if they moved the start time up ~30 minutes but, if not, beware that this game may not play the full nine innings. Can’t rule out a PPD either so just stay on top of the forecast here before locking any players in. More solid hitting conditions with 80-degree temps and 15+ mph winds blowing OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.5k | vs. CWS

Kikuchi has been excellent from a consistency standpoint this season and his only “hiccup” within his past eight starts came against the vaunted Dodgers lineup. All told Kikuchi has procured a 2.60 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 26.3% kRate this season and he also has his walk rate under 5%. Unlike several other starting pitchers on this slate, Kikuchi won’t have to deal with very un-pitcher-friendly weather conditions as he’ll toe the mount in the domed Rogers Centre (#11 most pitcher-friendly ballpark).

The White Sox have been an easy team to pick on throughout the season and, while they have shown some marginal improvements in recent weeks, they’ve been virtually harmless against lefty pitching. On the season, the White Sox rank dead last versus LHPs with each of the following metrics: .196 AVG, .556 OPS, .252 wOBA, .099 ISO, and 60 wRC+ -- their 24.2% kRate is also the 8th highest and their 6.4% BB% is the 3rd lowest. The only “ding” I could point out against Kikuchi today, aside from his lofty DFS salaries, is the fact that he has some poor BvP -- in 67 PA against the current CWS roster, Kikuchi has allowed a .298 AVG, .398 wOBA, and 19.4% kRate. Not great results by any means. Nonetheless, there are far more positives about this match-up that outweigh the lackluster BvP.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SEA

I wouldn’t expect Schmidt to fly under the radar today but, if you’re alright with a bit of chalk, then he sets up as another fairly reliable option against the strikeout-prone Mariners. Schmidt has scored no fewer than 17.2 DKFP/29 FDFP in any of his previous seven starts and, in that span, he has recorded a 1.98 ERA, .203 opp AVG, 1.00 WHIP, and 28.6% kRate. His 3.48 xFIP across those seven starts indicates he’s pitching above his head, but it’s still a respectable underlying figure. Schmidt has had some less impressive home splits where he owns a 4.05 ERA (vs. 1.47 ERA on the road) but his 3.48 xFIP at home is a touch better than his 3.58 xFIP on the road, so we can chalk it up to a bit of bad baseball luck.

As most consistent MLB DFS players are aware by now, the Mariners own the highest kRate (28.9%) versus RHPs this season and they’ve been very average overall offensively -- their 98 wRC+ checks in at 16th in the MLB. They’ve gotten their wRC+ up to 107 against RHPs over the last two weeks, but they’re still rocking a 28.1% kRate in that span -- pretty on par with their season-long kRate. The Yankees are hefty -170 ML favorites today and while I do not expect Schmidt to put up a super clean scorecard, I do like his chances at a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) while coming away with 6-to-8 strikeouts.

Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL | DK: $6k, FD: $8.6k | @ OAK

I don’t love this play by any stretch but Quantrill is going to, at the very least, be a worthwhile SP2 option on DraftKings if you want to squeeze in some bigger bats. Quantrill won’t have to deal with his hitter-friendly home ballpark today and he comes in on the heels of three consecutive quality starts. In that span (19.2 IP), he has allowed only two earned runs (0.92 ERA) to go along with a .212 opp AVG, 1.02 WHIP, 2.78 xFIP, and 26.0% kRate.

The A’s aren’t a team I love to attack regularly, and they’ve been at their best at home where they’re averaging 4.52 runs/gm (vs. 2.92 runs/gm away). I wouldn’t count on Quantrill maintaining his elevated kRate from recent starts, but he could still be a decent bet for five or six Ks against an A’s lineup that has a 26.5% kRate vs. RHPs (3rd highest). Realistically, we’ll just hope for Quantrill to force a lot of groundouts, not have a blow-up inning, and put up another quality start. Anything more than that and it’s just icing on the cake -- specifically in reference to his $6,000 DraftKings salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Garrett Crochet (LHP), TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | @ TOR

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k | @ STL

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LAA

Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ARI

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

+ Astros: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ The Astros have been notably better at home where they’re averaging 5.04 runs/gm (vs. 4.14 runs/gm away).

+ The Astros have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs at home: .271 AVG (1st), .782 OPS (3rd), .343 wOBA (3rd), 125 wRC+ (3rd), and 19.3% kRate (5th lowest).

+ Canning has had some decent starts recently, but he’s been nothing special this season: 5.21 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, and 16.8% kRate.

+ Plenty of red (aka bad) figures in Canning’s statcast data from the past month, specifically his high 30.5% LineDrive%, 91.5 mph average exit velo (bottom 10th percentile), eight barreled balls (bottom 10th percentile), and 194.8 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 15th percentile).

+ In 54 PA vs. Canning, the current Astros lineup owns a .333 AVG, .408 wOBA, and 11.1% kRate.

-/+ The Angels’ bullpen has been middle-of-the-road L2Weeks: 4.26 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, .216 opp AVG, and 25.0% kRate.

- Canning has traditional splits, so he is notably worse against LHBs than RHBs, but the Astros will likely only deploy three lefty bats in their lineup tonight.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve

Bargain Bat: Jake Meyers

Atlanta Braves vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Chicago Cubs vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

Lumping these two offenses together due to the outstanding hitting conditions at Wrigley Field this evening. As mentioned in the weather section, Wrigley will see 20+ mph winds blowing out toward left field with temps in the mid-70s. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the 11.5-run over/under for this match-up is the highest non-Coors total thus far this season. The starters in this game, Charlie Morton and Javier Assad, are two quality right-handed pitchers but any well-struck flyball is just going to have a much higher chance of leaving the ballpark than under normal circumstances. It will make plenty of sense to gain exposure to both sides of this game.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies

ATL Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Christopher Morel, Seiya Suzuki

CHC Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

+ This may not end up being a super low-owned stack but I do expect most of the Angels lineup to check in at sub-10% ownership.

+ Javier has supplied a solid 3.23 ERA over his six starts but he’s due for some significant regression based on his slate-worst 5.16 xFIP.

+ Javier has allowed a high 28.6% LineDrive% L30Days.

+ The Angels have been the epitome of a ‘scrappy’ offense lately and, against RHPs over the last week, they own a 123 wRC+ (ranks 7th) to go along with a .345 wOBA (7th) and .199 ISO (4th).

+ The entire Angels lineup ranges from “quite affordable” to “dirt cheap”.

- Angels: 4.0 implied runs (ranks T-5th lowest on the slate).

- Javier tends to pitch better at home (+34.1% more FPPG at home).

- Javier certainly owns the edge in the BvP column -- in 57 PA vs. the current LAA roster, Javier has come away with a .212 opp AVG, .296 opp wOBA, and a monster 40.4% kRate.

Favorite LAA Bats: Luis Rengifo, Kevin Pillar, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Willie Calhoun

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), STL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), OAK

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Tommy Pham, CWS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

2B/OF Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Kevin Pillar, LAA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), OAK

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

1B Jon Singleton, HOU | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B Willie Calhoun, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Jake Meyers, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B/OF Luke Raley, SEA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

SS Max Schuemann, OAK | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Jake Cave, COL | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No prop picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!