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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Per usual, the Friday MLB schedule is fully loaded and we’ll be preparing to take on a giant 13-game main slate! Quality pitching headlines this slate with a ton of talented arms, lefty arms, in particular, to choose from throughout the pricing tiers. As a result of so much solid pitching, only six offenses possess an implied run total of over 4.3 runs. We’ve seen plenty of low-scoring slates throughout the early portion of this season but, with 26 teams in play, a few squads are inevitably going to exceed expectations by a wide margin. Nailing those correct hitters/stacks will be the challenge of the day but I believe we’re up for it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SEA @ BAL (7:05 ET): Things should start dry but low/moderate rain chances increase later in the evening. Not overly concerning but a delay is possible. Crosswinds blowing right-to-left near 10 mph.

• MIN @ CLE (7:10 ET): A possible late start could be in the cards as some late-afternoon rain clears around first pitch. They could also be able to start on time. Once they get going, whenever that may be, no further issues are expected.

• SD @ ATL (7:20 ET): Easily the most concerning game of the slate. A large rain system is just south of Atlanta at the moment but moderate-to-heavy rains are in danger of making their way over the ballpark throughout the evening. I could see anything from a long late start to an outright postponement here, so be sure to keep an eye on this forecast closer to the scheduled first pitch before locking any SD/ATL players in.

• BOS @ STL (8:15 ET): Another spot where some rain is clearing around first pitch so a late start is a moderate possibility. Clear skies for the rest of the evening once those initial rainstorms are out of the way.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10k, FD: $10.9k | @ ARI

Skubal is stitching together a Cy Young-caliber season and he’s been arguably the most consistent starter in baseball up to this point. Across his eight starts, he has scored no fewer than 18.1 DKFP/34 FDFP in any single outing and he leads all pitchers on this slate with each of the following metrics: 2.02 ERA, 2.12 xERA, 2.53 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, and 4.2% BB% -- Skubal’s excellent 31.6% kRate is just barely behind Freddy Peralta (31.9% kRate) for the slate-lead.

Despite his extremely rare level of consistency, I could imagine Skubal’s ownership taking a hit due to the fact that other top pitchers on the slate will be drawing more advantageous match-ups. The D-Backs have had their fair share of offensive struggles against RHPs, but they have been very strong against lefty pitching. On the season against LHPs, the D-Backs have boasted a .299 AVG (1st), .836 OPS (2nd), .354 wOBA (1st), .179 ISO (4th), 137 wRC+ (2nd), and 17.7% kRate (3rd lowest). However, aside from their ISO, all of their remaining key offensive numbers have taken a sizable dip against LHPs over the L2Weeks -- most notably, their average is down to .240, their wRC+ is down to 110, and their kRate has hiked up to 22.0%. I’m a proponent of the phrase “good pitching beats good hitting” in the majority of cases and Skubal has proven to be about as match-up proof as it gets.

Christian Scott (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.1k | @ MIA

Scott has posted back-to-back quality starts to begin his MLB career and his third big league start against the Marlins will serve as his softest match-up to date. Before being called up, Scott had plenty of success across his 25.1 IP at the Triple-A level where he procured a 3.20 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, .136 opp AVG, and an eye-popping 38.3% kRate. His one hang-up in Triple-A was his tendency to give up home runs and his 2.49 HR/9 Rate was the primary reason why he didn’t put up a sub-2.00 ERA. Over his two MLB starts (@ TB, vs. ATL) he has managed to allow just one home run and, across 12.2 IP, Scott owns a sharp 2.84 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 28.0% kRate, and a slate-best 16.8% SwStr% (indicating that his overall kRate is probably lower than where it should be).

The Marlins have been pretty firmly a bottom-five offense against RHPs this season -- their .648 OPS, .289 wOBA, .129 ISO, and 85 wRC+ all rank 26th or worse. They don’t strike out a ton (20.9% kRate vs. RHPs, 10th lowest) but their overall lack of home run power does bode well for Christian Scott’s one major weakness that we’ve seen from his minor league tenure (allowing HRs). Much like the top-end, there are several appealing arms out of the mid-range on this huge slate but not many others who own the same sort of strikeout potential as Scott.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. NYM

We’ll jump to the other side of this game and spotlight a much more established pitcher in lefty Jesus Luzardo. It hasn’t been a clean season for Luzardo as he heads into his seventh 2024 start with a 5.97 ERA. However, his 3.82 xFIP tells us that he has pitched considerably better than his ERA would indicate, and the strikeout numbers are still solid with a 26.3% kRate and 14.9% SwStr% (tied with Skubal for second-best on the slate). Luzardo’s two truly poor starts came against some tough competition (Yankees & Braves). And, after missing three weeks with an elbow injury, Luzardo returned last Saturday to put up perhaps his most impressive outing of the young season against the Phillies: 5.2 IP (79 pitches), 4 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, and 8 K. Prior to the stint on the IL, Luzardo worked his way up to a 104 pitch count, so the Marlins were likely just being cautious with his workload for his first start back from the elbow issue. Not sure if we’ll see him push for 100+ pitches tonight, but Luzardo getting closer to ~90 pitches would be reasonable.

A primary reason for liking Luzardo today, aside from his modest salaries, will be his match-up. The Mets have shown very, very little ability to do anything against lefty pitching over the last month. In that span (215 PA) vs. LHPs, the Mets own a meager .157 AVG (last), .488 OPS (last), .225 wOBA (last), .094 ISO (27th), and 45 wRC+ (last) to go along with a middling 21.4% kRate. The Mets have just been laughably bad against lefties and, while he’s had his struggles in 2024, Luzardo is not an easy opponent to mend those lefty-hitting woes against. We generally saw Luzardo priced firmly in the $9k and $10k ranges for much of last season so, for any folks who are new to MLB, he’s a much better pitcher than these current salaries would imply. We’ll jump on the Luzardo bandwagon in hopes that he continues to get his groove back in this mouth-watering match-up at home.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CWS

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. OAK

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SD (Monitor weather)

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. COL

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. TB

Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

+ Yankees: 4.5 implied run total (ranks 6th on the slate).

+ Clevinger has just two MLB starts under his belt this season, so it’s a small sample size, but his 5.52 xFIP and 2.10 WHIP do not bode well against a Yankees team that is mashing righty pitching lately.

+ Clevinger has allowed a high 28.0% LineDrive% and an average batted-ball distance of 200.9 feet (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Yankees have been the top offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .291 AVG (1st), .847 OPS (1st), .372 wOBA (1st), .194 ISO (1st), 145 wRC+ (1st), 16.9% kRate (lowest in MLB), and 15 HRs (1st).

+ The White Sox bullpen owns an MLB-worst 4.68 xFIP this season.

- Based on Park Factor, Yankee Stadium has been the #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Yankees have been less explosive at home where they’re averaging 4.47 runs/gm (vs. 5.04 runs/gm away).

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

+ Spanning their last seven games since May 9th, the Brewers lead the MLB with an .878 OPS, .384 wOBA, and 150 wRC+ while ranking second with a .298 AVG and .214 ISO.

+ Based on his not-great, not-terrible 3.95 xFIP, Brown has not been nearly as bad as his 7.79 ERA would indicate, but it’s tough to ignore the fact that he has allowed a .400+ wOBA to both sides of the plate this season to go along with a 2.01 WHIP and 1.67 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Brewers have been slightly better at home (5.24 runs/gm) this season but they remain a top road offense, averaging 5.14 run/gm away (ranks 6th).

+ Most MIL bats should go low-owned as only two hitters in the projected lineup have higher than a 7% pOwn%.

+ Minute Maid Park has ranked as the #9 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+/- Brewers: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

- The Astros have had a top-10 bullpen L2Weeks: 3.23 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, .217 opp AVG, and 1.16 WHIP.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Jake Bauers

Bargain Bat: Joey Ortiz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Mitch Spence (RHP/PO)/Kyle Muller (LHP/PLR), OAK

Note: RHP Mitch Spence is in line to start as the “opener” and has pitched 3+ innings on several occasions this season. LHP Kyle Muller is then expected to follow Spence and serve as the “long reliever.”

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the Royals’ confirmed lineup have a pOwn% of ≤ 6%.

+ Royals: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Following a seven-game road trip, the Royals return home where they’ve been considerably better offensively: 5.00 runs/gm at home (ranks 4th) vs. 3.95 runs/gm away (ranks 22nd).

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #4 hitter’s park.

+ The Royals’ 16.8% kRate at home is the lowest in MLB.

- The A’s are resorting to a bullpen game due to multiple injuries in their rotation, but these bullpen games can often have a way of keeping opposing offenses off-balance even if the primary pitchers (Spence and Muller, in this case) aren’t overly talented arms.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Nelson Velazquez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. OAK Bullpen

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD (Monitor weather)

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Christian Scott (RHP), NYM

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), TB

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Wenceel Perez, DET | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

2B/OF Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

C Connor Wong, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

C Tyler Stephenson, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, CIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

OF Kevin Pillar, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

2B/3B Joey Ortiz, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF JD Martinez, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

C Mitch Garver, SEA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Aaron Judge MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!