Top MLB DFS Plays 9/9 | A Pitcher's Duel in the Windy City

September 09, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

🚨 The PreSnap Podcast is out! Subscribe now and stay tuned for lots of great NFL content! 🏈 AFC Preview Show 🏈 NFC Preview Show

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple| Google| Spotify| iHeartRADIO| Stitcher

Appropriately enough, 9/9 brings us a nine-game main slate to break down and (hopefully) bolster our bankrolls with tonight. We’ve got a few aces at the top of pitcher pricing today and, as alluded to in the title, two of these guys are facing off against each other in what should be an excellent pitching environment. Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish will take the mound as counterparts in Wrigley Field where winds will be blowing in at 10-15 mph with temperatures in the 60s. The 6.5 O/U in that game is the lowest run total I can recall seeing this season (for a non-doubleheader seven inning game). I’ll be very interested to see how that match-up plays out and what impact it has on this slate as a whole. Elsewhere, several offenses are set up in plus match-ups as seven teams have an implied total of 4.9+ runs. This should be another fun one so let’s dive in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

MIA @ ATL: A slight chance of some scattered showers around. The chances are so low that they’ll actually have an impact on the game that I normally wouldn’t mention it. But we’ve seen Atlanta be super touchy when it comes to postponing games due to weather this season so just run a quick check up on this forecast once we get closer to first pitch (7:10 ET).

LAD @ ARI: Roof is scheduled to be open again tonight. Temps in Phoenix won’t be quite as hot as usual but around high 80s at the start, low 80s towards the latter innings.

CIN @ CHC: As mentioned in the intro, 10-15 mph winds blowing in at Wrigley tonight (and a slight chance of rain that I wouldn’t worry about too much for now). Winds were a bit stiffer yesterday (15-20 mph) but that game finished with a 0-3 score. It’s not surprising to see this super low 6.5 run total considering the two starting pitchers for each team tonight.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | @ ARI

I’m normally not a fan of rolling out pitchers facing the same team in B2B starts but I’m not sure it matters with the way Kershaw is pitching this season. He threw six one-hit shutout innings against Arizona last Thursday while grabbing eight punchouts across 99 pitches. On the season, against LHPs, the D’backs rank dead last with a .265 wOBA, .100 ISO, and a 61 wRC+. The only thing they’re not failing at against lefties is striking out (21.4% kRate, 19th lowest). The roof will be open in Arizona tonight, which could lead to the D’backs knocking a home run or two off Kershaw (1.25 HR/9) and perhaps he won’t have a great show at 10+ Ks. However, it’s difficult to project anything less than a solid outing from Kershaw tonight. His .157 AVG, 0.72 WHIP,and 2.61 xFIP are all top figures on this slate. If Arizona can manage to pop one or two off of Kershaw, they’re likely to just be solo shots. It’s also worth noting, with the roof open, it won’t be *quite* as warm in Phoenix as usual (high-to-low 80s throughout).

Dane Dunning (RHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ PIT

Dunning was a chalk bomb in his last start and burned a lot of people, but no one should be all too surprised by a rookie MLB pitcher struggling in just his third ever big league start (and first on the road) while also facing the same offense in B2B games. Without a ton of standout value at pitcher today, Dunning does make a good bit of sense if you’re looking to roll the dice and go for a cheap arm. He still has legitimate strikeout upside (30.3% kRate) and even though it is just a 14.0 IP sample size, his 17.5% Swinging Strike Rate is an elite figure and tops on the slate. It’s also hard to beat this match-up. The Pirates are dead last versus RHPs this season with a .265 wOBA, .122 ISO, and 63 wRC+. They also strikeout a decent amount (24.9% kRate). In Dunning’s three starts, he’s build his pitch count up from 73, 79, and (most recently) 88. While his inexperience brings forth some risk, if he’s out there for 90+ pitches against a lowly Pittsburgh team, he could easily return value. The Pirates carry just a 4.1 implied run total and the White Sox are solid -165 favorites.

Others to Consider:

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.5k | vs.CIN

Trevor Bauer (RHP) | DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.8k | @ CHC

Both of these guys have to be in play and, on DK, I wouldn’t hate the idea of rolling both out in the same lineup (if you’re willing to 100% auto-forfeit the win bonus for one pitcher) in hopes of a 2-1 kind of game. Darvish came out on top in this same match-up on Aug. 29th when he amassed 28.1 DKFP/52 FDFP @ CIN (Bauer 12.4 DKFP/22 FDFP vs. CHC) but both pitchers have a similar ceiling. Darvish would seem to be the more obvious cash game play, Bauer for GPPs.

Zach Davies (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9k | vs. COL

Davies could very well end up being lower owned than he probably should be tonight. He has scored below 18 DKFP/30 FDFP just once in eight starts this season, which was against Colorado but that was also at Coors Field. I am a little hesitant on him due to the underlying numbers suggesting he is getting a bit fortunate thus far. He has a very strong 2.23 ERA but a relatively poor 4.28 xFIP. He also has a pretty average 22.6% kRate and low 9.4% SwStr%, so his strikeout numbers have been quite reliant on called strikes. Still, he shut down Colorado on August 28th in his second Coors Field start of the season (5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 6 K) and he’ll get them at home this go ‘round in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park with the always explosive Padres offense there to provide him some run support.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It’s always a little tough to predict the chalk so far out from the slate starting, but the Mets, Padres, and Dodgers feel like the likely candidates to be highly owned tonight. All three are obviously good-to-great offenses in strong spots, so play ‘em if you like ‘em. Simply look to differentiate elsewhere.

Miami Marlins vs. Tommy Milone (LHP), ATL

I can’t for the life of me figure out what sort of algorithm led DraftKings to price Tommy Milone at $9.2k but I think we’ll all be pissed later in chat if he goes out there and throws a gem. He’s not a terrible pitcher but he’s far from consistent and nothing about his 2020 numbers warrant that sort of salary. The Marlins aren’t a team which most people get excited to stack up but they have been putting up decent runs lately and there are often times three or four guys that can pop off given the right match-up. Truist Park is also a solid park upgrade for the Marlins as well and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them put up another 6-8 runs again tonight. If you land on the right bats, it could be a sneaky contrarian lineup build.

San Francisco Giants vs. Nick Margevicius (LHP), SEA

The Giants have somewhat quietly been a pretty elite offense against southpaw pitching. Versus LHPs, their .357 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 126 wRC+ all rank inside the top five in the MLB -- and their splits versus lefties at home are even better (.369 wOBA, .259 ISO, 139 wRC+). Margevicius hasn’t really been blown up in any of his four starts yet this season but he allows a 45.9% Hard Hit%, which is the highest among all starters today, and his 91.2 mph average exit velocity is the second highest. The Giants have some power bats that can certainly capitalize on those trends.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Texas Rangers vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), LAA

If Teheran was facing about any other offense today, they’d likely be one of the chalkier stacks to roll out. Teheran ranks as the worst pitcher on the slate in several vital metrics (ERA, xFIP, SIERA, kRate, SwStr%, wOBA, xWOBA, HR/9) so the Rangers may have another productive offensive performance tonight, which is a rarity for them this season.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Mike Trout | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Kyle Cody (RHP), TEX

Trout leads all hitters over the last two weeks (min. 25 PA) with a .455 AVG, .612 wOBA, .576 ISO, and 301 wRC+. That 301 wRC+ tells us that he has essentially been 200% better than the average MLB hitter in that span. I mean, he has smacked five homers, four doubles, and scored 14 runs with 13 RBI in that span, so… makes sense. Trout is a pretty good player… he might have a real future in this league. If you’re spending up on a one-off bat, Trout feels like a worthwhile investment today.

OF/1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Rick Porcello (RHP), NYM

Mountcastle earns his way into the one-off section for a second consecutive day after going 2-for-5 with a home run and a double yesterday. Mountcastle is in a very similar situation again today. He is a hitter who has shown reverse split tendencies in the early goings of his his rookie season (.356 AVG, .443 wOBA, .311 ISO vs. RHPs). Like Michael Wacha yesterday (who Mountcastle homered off of), Rick Porcello has shown some poor reverse splits this season. Versus RHBs, Porcello is allowing a .337 AVG, .393 wOBA, .180 ISO, and a 5.06 xFIP while striking out just 17.7% of righty hitters. So it’s another situation where Mountcastle’s positive reverse splits will clash with a pitcher’s negative reverse splits. Might as well give him another go today if you’re not full on stacking the O’s.

2B/OF, 3B Jeff McNeil | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

There are fewer hitters in baseball who are hotter than McNeil is right now and you can get him at a very affordable price tonight. I’m sure he will be one of the highest owned players on the slate but, eh, whatever. I think he’s a borderline must-play in cash games, and I usually hate saying that about anyone due to the volatility of baseball. But since August 31st (nine games, 35 at-bats), McNeil is hitting .429 with a .550 wOBA, .428 ISO, and 256 wRC+ while striking out just 7.5% of the time. He has smacked three homers and six doubles in that span. After a 2-for-3 night, which included a HR, I’d expect the Mets to keep him slotted into that lead-off position once again, especially since a righty will be on the mound.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Clayton Kershaw

This is definitely a little ballsy and even though I don’t put a ton of stock into BvP, Walker does have four home runs off of Kershaw in just 11 at-bats and 16 plate appearances. I mentioned earlier that I wouldn’t be shocked if Kershaw allows a solo shot or two tonight, especially with the roof open in Arizona. Walker has been hitting dingers on a pretty routine basis lately and even though he is more of a reverse splits hitter and better versus righties, I think there’s at least a reasonable chance he knocks another one out tonight… possibly his fifth career HR off of Kersh.

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue of the Daily Ledger by leaving a 👍 or 👎 at the bottom of the page!

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.