Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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The NFL returning to action will dominate the sports world on this day but we still have (depending on what site you play on) a four (FD) and five (DK) game MLB main slate to square up and tackle this evening! The DraftKings main slate has included the NYM @ MIA game onto the docket, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 ET, so keep that early start in mind if that is your DFS site of choice! The MLB is self-aware enough that they’re not going to compete with viewership against Thursday Night Football, so the latest game today begins at 7:20 ET. I know some of y’all could not care less about whether or not the NFL is back so let’s dial in on tonight’s games and see what we can cook up!

Also, I’m going to assume that we’ll be losing some readership and participation on the MLB side of things so, for those dipping out and looking to aim your focus more towards the football season, I’d just like to say thanks for reading, hanging out in chat, sweating some games, and riding the highs and lows throughout the year! And best of luck with whatever DFS ventures you take on in the coming months!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There is rain in the forecast for a couple of these games but the hope is that IF those rains do run over the ballparks, it is expected to be light enough to play through. We’ll know more closer to the first pitch.

Best Hitting Environments: WAS @ ATL

Best Pitching Environments: NYM @ MIA

COL @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Some light rain that is expected to be around in the afternoon could bleed over into this game but, as mentioned above, they should be able to play through it. Rain percentages diminish later into the evening so, as long as the field conditions don’t get compromised, I *believe* they’ll be okay here. Check forecast closer to lock.

TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Similar outlook as PHI, but this batch of rain seems to be heavier/more problematic. Coverage fades later into the evening, so a late start seems like a decent possibility. I don’t believe a postponement is likely, but it can’t 100% be ruled out.

WAS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing out to left.

Note: On such a small slate and no incredibly high postponement risks, for the purposes of this newsletter, I won’t be ruling out any players from the first two games mentioned above.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

DK Only: Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYM | $9,400 | @ MIA

Stroman is also on the two-game “afternoon only” slate on FanDuel (priced at $8,900), if you happen to be interested in playing that. On DK, I expect him to be one of the go-to option for many tonight. He draws the best pitching environment on the slate and faces arguably the least-threatening offense on the slate. While the strikeouts haven’t been there this season (21.3% kRate), Stroman has acquired a strong 2.93 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, and 1.15 WHIP. Miami has posted a 25.6% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if Stroman is able to come away from this game with 6-8 Ks as he did when he last faced the Marlins back on May 21st (6.0 IP, 89 PC, 6 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 21 DKFP). He’s averaging 95 pitches/gm over his last five starts as well, which is the highest PC average among today’s starters. The Mets are strong -180 favorites and the Marlins possess a slate-low 3.3 implied run total. We should look to get six or seven quality innings from Stro this evening.

Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.8k | vs. WAS

Ynoa’s sample size isn’t as great as most starter’s today, but he does lead the slate with a 3.48 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and most importantly (for DFS purposes) a 26.4% kRate. The Nationals have been pretty decent on offense as of late, but Ynoa has put them in check in two previous starts against them this year, holding them scoreless in both outings and allowing only seven total hits (0.75 WHIP, .154 AVG). Atlanta is the top favorite on the slate (-220) and Ynoa has some realistic 25 DKFP/45 FDFP upside in this match-up. 

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.6k | vs. COL

Suarez has been sharp across his last three outings (17.0 IP) where he has notched a 1.06 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 28.4% kRate, and has held opponents to a .210 AVG/.233 wOBA. He’s given up only two XBH in those three games, which were both doubles, while forcing a 51.2% Ground Ball Rate. It’s no surprise that the Colorado bats struggle more when they away from Coors Field. On the road vs. LHPs this year, they’re hitting only .223 with a .294 wOBA and 81 wRC+ -- metrics that place them well inside the bottom 10 offenses in the MLB (when facing lefties on the road). Suarez is affordable, has shown some great statcast data over the last month, and should have a good chance to find success in this match-up. The Phillies are also strong -180 favorites while the Rockies hold a low 3.5 implied run total. 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Atlanta Braves vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS



Secondary Stacks

Kansas City Royals vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

John Means has posted some noticeably poor splits at home in his hitter-friendly Camden Yards ballpark. His 5.01 ERA at home in 2021 is over 2.5 runs higher than his 2.48 ERA on the road and there is also a noticeable difference in his xFIP -- 5.06 xFIP at home, 3.98 xFIP on the road. His kRate dips from 25.4% (away) to 19.5% (home) and he’s allowed 2.31 HR/9 in Camden Yards this season as well. The Royals have been a fairly average offense against LHPs lately, though they have been extremely tough to strike out (12.8% kRate vs. LHPs the last two weeks). If that low kRate trend continues, Means will need to pitch to contact in order to get through this lineup which could lead to some positive results for some Royals bats given Means’ high fly ball rate and slate-high 7.4% Barrel%. It’s only a 25 plate appearance sample size, but the current Royals roster is hitting .348 against Means with a .376 wOBA and 16% kRate. Getting some innings against a bad Baltimore bullpen won’t hurt the KC stack upside here either.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

There aren’t many bats in this Phillies order who are consistently producing lately aside from Bryce Harper and, to an extent, Andrew McCutchen but they should have all the motivation to get some quality swings in today as they sit 2.5 games back from the Braves in the NL East standings. When it gets later into the season, I do start to take notice of these tightly contested playoff races, especially when one team playing for their postseason life (e.g. PHI) is facing another team that may just be going through the motions with postseason hopes completely dashed (e.g. COL). The Phillies have also been one of the better offenses on the slate recently with a solid 117 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Senzatela has been less effective when pitching on the road this year and the Rockies bullpen isn’t exactly loaded with lockdown relievers. 

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

Carlos Hernandez has posted some really appealing fantasy numbers lately, and he’s cheap, so I could envision him being a popular value SP option today. Working under that assumption, Baltimore would make for an enticing leverage stack. Baltimore has been a borderline top 10 offense against RHPs in recent weeks and they average nearly a run more per game at home (4.61 runs/gm) as opposed to on the road (3.76 runs/gm). Hernandez is allowing quite a few barreled balls and while he has posted a very serviceable 3.57 ERA on the year, his 4.49 xFIP indicates that he is due for some regression. Both offenses in this game have some stack appeal today and I am slightly surprised to see only an 8.5 total here. These teams have combined for 27 runs over the last two days, so I may be inclined to throw a little cash at the over hitting in this one.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

C Salvador Perez | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

1B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $4.8k, FD: N/A | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

OF Kevin Pillar | DK: $3k, FD: N/A | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

2B/SS Jorge Mateo | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

OF Brett Gardner | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B/SS Adalberto Mondesi | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

There are probably easier home run calls to make today, especially considering Mondesi has gone 0-for-8 with three Ks the last couple days -- but I’d be fairly shocked to see him completely fail three games in a row. It’s a short sample size spread across a wide time frame (due to Mondesi’s injury-plagued season), but in his last 20 games versus LHPs (28 PA), Mondesi has amassed a .444 AVG, 1.302 wOBA+ISO, 318 wRC+, and has hit five homers. I hit on Means’ struggles at home this season above, but he has been particularly ineffective at home against RHBs, which is the side of the plate Mondesi will bat from when Means (or any other lefty) is on the mound. Means has faced 122 RHBs (37.1 IP) in Camden Yards this year and has surrendered 12 HRs -- good for a 2.89 HR/9 Rate. When strictly looking at the 2021 season, Camden Yards has ranked as the #1 overall ballpark for RHBs in terms of adjusted home run factor. It won’t be warm out in Baltimore today, nor will there be any helpful winds blowing towards the outfield, but Mondesi has a great shot to bounce back with a strong game today… hopefully with a home run thrown into the mix.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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