Top MLB DFS Plays 9/8 | Getting Back to the Grind!

September 08, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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I hope everyone enjoyed the long Labor Day weekend and hopefully you guys were able to get in some solid R&R. For those who had to work anyway, my condolences. We get back into it today with a solid nine-game MLB main slate this evening. Pitching, overall, is pretty ‘meh’ with plenty of potential "landmines" out there, but that usually means there are a load of offenses in strong spots. There are currently seven teams with an implied run total at 4.8 runs or greater so that does seem to be the case today. For an MME (mass multi-entry) approach today, it may be a good idea to dig your heels in and lock in on three or four pitchers while spreading out your stack exposure across a bunch of different offenses that you end up liking. Whatever approach you decide to take, I wish everyone the best of luck today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

LAD @ ARI: Roof is scheduled to be open. Temps in the high 90s in Phoenix around time of first pitch.

MIL @ DET: Rain will be in the Detroit area leading up to this game so make sure it has cleared (or is clearing) the area as we near first pitch (7:10 ET).

CIN @ CHC: Some scattered showers in the area which we’ll have to be on the lookout for. Assuming this game plays without rain issues, winds will be blowing in 15-20 mph which should provide a noticeable bump to starting pitchers. This game has the lowest over/under of the day at 7.5 runs.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Mike Clevinger (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.6k | vs. COL

I don’t love the price tags on Clevinger today, simply because he hasn’t really earned these sort of near-five-figure DFS salaries yet this season. But we’ll see if he can finally show us the sort of strikeout upside that he possessed for most of last season when he takes the mound tonight. Clevinger’s 20% kRate thru five starts and 28.2 IP this season is a far cry from his elite 33.9% kRate last year. He is still producing a solid 12.1% SwStr% but the called strikeouts definitely haven’t been there this season and his walk rate is also up a bit (7.4% in 2019, 10.4% this season). Colorado has a 25% kRate when they’re on the road versus RHPs (21.1% kRate vs. RHPs at Coors Field) alongside a poor .214 AVG, .280 wOBA, and 71 wRC+. Getting a shot at the Rockies outside of Coors, where they’re more strikeout prone and less dangerous offensively, while making his first start at home as a Padre in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park could be the sort of mixture that Clevinger needs to post up one of those 30 DKFP/50 FDFP kinda performances which he routinely produced in 2019.

Andrew Heaney (LHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k | @ TEX

If I were a betting man (which I am), I’d think Heaney ends up being the highest-owned pitcher tonight. But hey, it makes sense. Heaney has been incredible in his last two starts: 14.2 IP, 0.61 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, .140 AVG, .163 wOBA, 0.75 WHIP, 29.6% kRate. He also pitched deep into those two games after going for 104 pitches against Seattle and 117 pitches against San Diego. If he was able to shut down a team like San Diego, you would think he’d be able to handle the Rangers who are bottom feeders across most meaningful offensive metrics this year. Ironically enough, the Rangers were the team to blame for Heaney’s worst outing of the season. Back on August 9th against Texas, Heaney lasted just 3.2 innings on 77 pitches while allowing eight hits and five earned runs and throwing just four strikeouts. It was a performance that netted him a whopping 1.5 DKFP and 8 FDFP. Unless all your hitters pop off, you can kiss your entry fees goodbye if he does that to your lineups again. But, on the season against LHPs, the Rangers have just a .228 AVG (ranks 21st in MLB), .281 wOBA (28th), 65 wRC+ (29th) and strikeout a healthy 25% of the time. If Heaney keeps his momentum rolling and Texas plays toward their averages, he should be a solid pitcher to invest in tonight.

Others to Consider:

Tyler Mahle (RHP) | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHC

Weather is a key determining factor here. As mentioned in the weather section, winds will be blowing in at Wrigley at 15-20 mph and the total sits at just 7.5 runs. Vegas essentially has this game as a pick ‘em but I’m siding with Mahle over Alec Mills here because this season Mahle has posted a strong 28.5% kRate (12.7% SwStr%) compared to Mills’ 16.5% kRate (7.5% SwStr%). The Cubs are more strikeout prone than the Reds as well, so I’m interested in Mahle tonight in GPPs. Remember to also make sure rain isn’t going to keep this game from safely playing.

Sixto Sanchez (RHP) | DK: $6.2k, FD: $9k | @ ATL

More of an SP2 punt play on DK where Sixto is… Six(point)two thousand theoretical dollars. The only reason to be wary of rolling out Sanchez tonight is obviously the tough match-up. Atlanta has been arguably the best offense against RHPs this season: .275 AVG (ranks 2nd), .361 wOBA (1st), .228 ISO (2nd), 124 wRC+ (3rd). Really the Dodgers, Mets, and Padres are the only other offenses who have comparable numbers. But, with the small 19.0 IP sample size in mind, Sixto leads all pitchers on the slate with a 2.65 xFIP and 2.76 SIERA while also striking out 26.4% of hitters alongside a stout 1.4% BB% and 1.00 WHIP. The Braves do strikeout against RHPs a fair amount (24.7%) so if Sixto can make it around six innings against that tough Braves lineup without getting tagged up too badly, he could payoff the $6,200 price tag on DraftKings with relative ease. And, hey, maybe he isn’t the worst contrarian option on FanDuel either but $9,000 is a steep price to pay for a bit of an unknown quantity. But most people are expecting great things from this kid in the long term, myself included.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: I imagine plenty of ownership will land on the Dodgers and Padres but I’m also seeing quite a bit of early love for the Braves from people who aren’t buying into the talent of Sixto Sanchez just yet. If you’re fine with the elevated ownership in GPPs, I’ve got no real issue stacking any of these teams (but I could see the Braves stack falling flat for all the reasons I mentioned above with Sixto… but at the same time Atlanta is hitting a bunch of homers).

Chicago White Sox vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), PIT

The White Sox rank 3rd in the MLB with 71 home runs this season, trailing only the Padres (74) and Dodgers (79). The dingers have slowed down a bit lately, but the White Sox are still routinely scoring 7+ runs and they’ll face off against a decent, but far from remarkable, pitcher in Joe Musgrove. Through four starts and 17.2 IP, Musgrove has found his fair share of strikeouts (26.3% kRate) but other than that, he’s been fairly mediocre with his 6.62 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and 2.04 HR/9 Rate. The White Sox have proven to be a team to target more so against lefties (which they’re statistically the best offense in the league against) but they’re near a top 10 offense against RHPs as well. The Pirates bullpen is essentially a middle-of-the-pack type of unit and I’m sure CWS will see at least one or two lefty relievers by the time this one is all over.

New York Mets vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

John Means had stretches in the 2019 season where he was beginning to look like a really solid starting MLB pitcher. However, through six starts (0-3) and 20.0 IP, he hasn’t impressed whatsoever. Thus far in 2020, Means has an 8.10 ERA, 6.08 xFIP, 3.60 HR/9 Rate, 13.5% kRate, and he’s allowing a high 42.3% HardHit%. Means will have to try to contain a Mets offense that has ranked inside the top five in most significant metrics over the last two weeks. The Orioles bullpen has actually been perhaps a top 10 unit, overall, but I still believe there is a nice opportunity for a Mets stack to find some success tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Detroit Tigers vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

Detroit’s major issue on offense is their tendency to strikeout a lot. Their 28.2% kRate versus RHPs is the highest in the league. However, Houser has posted just a 16.2% kRate this season (8.7% SwStr%) and has combined for just eight strikeouts over his previous three starts. Houser’s most recent start came against Detroit, who got five earned runs off of nine hits against him across five innings. Houser could certainly struggle against Detroit once again, while having to pitch against them in back-to-back starts. The Tigers have also been sneaky good offensively lately and their .299 batting average over the last two weeks ranks 1st in the league in that span alongside a strong .353 wOBA (7th) and 122 wRC+ (7th). 

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Sixto Sanchez (RHP), MIA

Acuna is officially hitting a mid-season stride after a couple injuries briefly derailed his season. Since returning from a hamstring injury five games ago on September 4th, Acuna has gone 5-for-15 (.333) with four home runs and he’s been walked seven times in that span resulting in a .565 OBP. Even without getting a hit in his last game, Acuna racked up 16 DKFP/21.2 FDFP (0-3, 1 BB, 1 R, 2 SB). The stolen base upside is just an extra bonus you get when you roll out Acuna. While I do believe in Sixto Sanchez’s talent, he is still a 22 y/o pitcher who is inexperienced at the MLB level. He has also shown poor reverse splits, struggling against RHBs (.333 AVG, .416 wOBA, .300 ISO). All three of the home runs Sixto has given up have been off of right-handed bats and with the way Acuna is barreling it lately, I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets ahold of another one today.

OF/1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), NYM

Mountcastle is hitting well above .300 through his first 15 career MLB games and he has a .350 AVG, .422 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 165 wRC+ versus RHPs in his rookie campaign. Wacha has always shown poor reverse splits throughout his career and 2020 is no different. Wacha has faced 47 RHBs this season and has allowed a .386 AVG, .497 wOBA, .386 ISO, and 2.89 HR/9. Mountcastle also got to hit clean-up for the first time in his previous start. If that happens again today, he may be able to get a couple cracks at Wacha but I’m on board with him regardless as a mid-range option today.

OF Corey Dickerson | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL

I’m a sucker for affordable lead-off hitters and, even though lineups aren’t released yet, I’m assuming Dickerson may get another nod at the #1 spot considering a righty will be taking the mound for Atlanta. Kyle Wright may very well be the worst starter on this slate and Dickerson should get two, maybe three plate appearances against him. Against LHBs, like Dickerson, Wright is allowing a .367 AVG, .487 wOBA, .200 ISO, and a .525 OBP. Dickerson is a little hit or miss and is hitting just .220 this season, but he has a good opportunity tonight and has hit two home runs and a triple within his last four games.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/2B/3B Max Muncy | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

Muncy is producing a 60% Hard Contact Rate over the last two weeks, which ranks 7th among all hitters with at least 25 plate appearances in that span. Luke Weaver has given LHBs a 45.8% Hard Contact Rate on 42.6% Fly Balls along with a .314 ISO and 30% HR/FB Rate. Six of Weaver’s eight HRs allowed this season have been to lefties. Seven of Muncy’s ten HRs hit this season have been off of righties. If they do indeed have the roof open in Phoenix tonight, that can only help assist in some fly balls going a little further. If Muncy gets under one against Weaver, I think it’ll have a great chance to sail over the outfield wall at Chase Field. Go yam one tonight Max!

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