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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Time to gear up for tonight’s mid-sized mid-week nine-game MLB slate! While there are many talented names among the list of starting pitchers slated to take the mound this evening, most of those guys are faced with difficult match-ups. The offense would seem to have the upper-hand today, as a whole, but whether or not that’s how things will play out remains to be seen. Unfortunately, there are a couple of legitimate postponement concerns to watch out for and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two games get scratched off the docket tonight. Hopefully that won’t be the case, but be sure to double check the forecasts once we get closer to lock! As always, more info on this evening’s potential weather concerns are mentioned below.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The two games to monitor tonight are KC @ BAL and WAS @ ATL. Both will be threatened by thunderstorms and a delay or postponement situation is a real possibility in either game.

Best Hitting Environments: KC @ BAL, TOR @ NYY, TB @ BOS, WAS @ ATL

Best Pitching Environments: LAD @ STL, LAA @ SD, CWS @ OAK

TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): This game should be able to get nine innings in before storms move in late (hopefully well after the game). There will be strong 15 mph winds here but they’re more neutral, blowing right to left, and won’t provide much of an advantage to either hitters or pitchers.

🚨KC @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U):🚨 There is a good chance they can start this game on time but T-Storms could threaten the mid/late innings. An in-game delay seems very possible and whether or not they can get the entire game played is very up in the air at this time.

TB @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left. Bats get a bump.

🚨WAS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 10 O/U):🚨 The biggest postponement threat resides here in Atlanta. Unlike New York and Baltimore, where storms could move in during the later innings or after the game entirely, there will be scattered T-Storms around Atlanta all throughout the game. If they decide to implement a late start, it could be a long wait. Or they may get lucky, and avoid trouble altogether. Definitely see how the radar looks here closer to lock.

Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I am still going to consider players from the KC @ BAL and WAS @ ATL games (unless an early postponement announcement comes down the wire). But, again, make sure you’re around closer to 7 o’clock ET to see how those forecasts are trending!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | vs. CWS

There are no easy calls to make at the pitcher position such as Blake Snell on yesterday’s slate, for example. Among the high-salary guys today, you have Freddy Peralta who is working back to a full workload and only threw two innings and 53 pitches in his last starts, Shane McClanahan whose pitch count is usually capped in the high-80s and is facing a tough opponent (@ BOS) in a hitter-friendly ballpark with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left, Nathan Eovaldi is on the other side of that game facing the red hot Tampa Bay bats who have been crushing in Fenway, Yu Darvish has been awful since the beginning of July and is set to be mega-chalk, Kyle Gibson has very limited strikeout upside and looks overpriced, and Adam Wainwright has been great but has to face the Dodgers.

So that brings us to Montas to start off with. He also faces a tough challenge tonight as the White Sox have acquired a 117 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 7th) and have only struck out a league-low 14.6% of the time in that span. But Montas has been excellent in his own right. Across his last ten starts (63.1 IP), he has notched a 2.27 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 32.5% kRate, .204 opp AVG, and .252 opp wOBA. Those are borderline ace-level numbers. His worst start, from a DFS perspective, in that ten-game stretch, did come against this same White Sox team. But that game was on the road @ CWS and he’ll be toeing the rubber in Oakland Coliseum tonight, which is the #1 pitcher-friendly ballpark. Oakland will also be solid -164 favorites as well.

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ NYY

Manoah has been a bit erratic during his rookie season, but there have been far more ‘ups’ than there have been ‘downs’ and he’s worth some consideration against the Yankees tonight. After the Yankees ripped off 13 wins in a row, they’ve since gone on to lose eight of their last ten games. Their win streak was snapped on August 28th.. They’ve had 213 plate appearances versus RHPs since that point and in that time they’re hitting only .204 with a .279 wOBA and 75 wRC+ -- all metrics which put them among the bottom 10 offenses in the league during that span. Manoah has quality strikeout stuff and does a nice job at limiting hard contact and line drives. I’m a little surprised the Blue Jays are slight underdogs in this one. I know Yankees starter Luis Gil has yet to allow a run in his 15.2 IP at the MLB level, but that likely ends tonight.

Mike Minor (LHP), KC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ BAL

Yeah, so I don’t love it and I’m not sure I’d take him for $8,200 on FanDuel, but Minor would check-in as one of the preferred cheap SP2 options to roll with on DraftKings. At $6,700, Minor essentially costs about $500-$1,000 more than the most expensive hitters. If you view his recent fantasy point totals (15.3 DKFP per game & 9.2 DKFP floor/24.5 DKFP ceiling last eight starts) sorta like you would view a hitter, he makes sense as a viable roster option. He’s also thrown at least 92 pitches in seven of his last eight games, so he should be able to cover five or six innings tonight. Baltimore’s 83 wRC+ versus LHPs over the last month also ranks 23rd in the MLB and they’ve struck out a moderately high 24.8% of the time in that span.

Note: Do remember to check the forecast in this game closer to lock!

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• **Atlanta Braves vs. Sean Nolin (LHP), WAS

• **Kansas City Royals vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

• Tampa Bay Rays vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

**Weather Risk

Secondary Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Ya kinda have to give it up to this patchwork Cubs roster that was pillaged via the trade market. Since August 23rd, they’ve scored at least six runs in seven of their 14 games played -- hitting double-digit run totals three times. Against RHPs in that span (386 plate appearances), their .334 wOBA ranks 9th, and their 109 wRC+ ranks 11th. They’re still striking out a ton in that span (28.8% kRate), which is a big reason why some may opt to roster Vladimir Gutierrez today. However, Gutierrez has posted a 5.10 xFIP on the season, which ranks as the worst mark among today’s starters. He has pitched well against the Cubs in three previous starts against them this year, but he is coming off of two really rough outings and keeping a relatively hot Cubs offense in check won’t be a ‘gimme’ tonight.

Oakland Athletics vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

Keuchel just has not ‘had it’ this season and his recent numbers are pretty abysmal. Across his last five starts, he has acquired a 9.58 ERA, 5.91 xFIP, 2.08 WHIP, 7.8% kRate, 10.8% Walk Rate, .360 opp AVG, .427 opp wOBA. When a guy is walking more hitters than he is striking out, that is… not a good sign to say the least (unless you’re the opposing offense). He’s also been notably worse on the road this season as well. I had the A’s written up as a secondary stack yesterday as well. They didn’t exactly work out all too well (three runs on six hits) as Jimmy Lambert was able to keep the game close before Chicago could turn to their elite bullpen. But if Oakland is able to break away on the scoreboard while they’re up against Keuchel, there’s a chance the White Sox wouldn’t utilize their better relief pitchers behind Keuchel. But, for as long as Keuchel is on the mound, these A’s will have the potential to produce against him.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

Is Toronto all that sneaky tonight? Maybe not. But people will probably be scared off of them due to their high salaries along with Gil’s 0.00 ERA across his three MLB starts and 15.2 IP. However, his 4.70 xFIP in that time is not all that impressive and more indicative of where his ERA *should* be. He’s had his fair share of good fortune up to this point as his .231 BABIP in those three Big League starts is nearly 30 points less than his BABIP in Triple-A this year. Don’t get me wrong, I do believe Gil is a good prospect and if he was facing just about any other team today, I’d probably have him highlighted above in the pitching section. But the Blue Jays have too much firepower in that lineup and they’re coming into tonight averaging 8.4 runs/gm over their last five.

One-Off Bats ☝️

**C Salvador Perez | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

**2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Sean Nolin (LHP), WAS

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.5k, FD:$3.8k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

1B/3B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

**OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

**1B Carlos Santana | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

2B/OF Max Schrock | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

**Weather Risk

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Happ’s been on an absolute tear lately. He has smacked out eight home runs over his last 20 games while batting .405 with a .519 wOBA, .419 ISO, and 229 wRC+. He’s simply been one of the premier offensive players in the league during that stretch. Seven of those eight home runs came at the expense of RHPs. Happ, a switch hitter, will hit from the left side of the batter’s box when he is matched up against Gutierrez (or any other RHP). Gutierrez has shown some notably poor splits against LHBs this year. Against lefties, he has a rough 5.91 xFIP and has been giving up a .236 ISO and 1.93 HR/9. Can Happ homer for the third time in three days? It’s not a lock to happen, but it’s a pretty solid bet! It doesn't hurt that he's already homered off of Gutierrez once before this season.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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