Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 9/7 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

Welcome back! I hope everyone enjoyed the long Labor Day weekend! It’s time to get right back on the saddle with a dozen games heading our way on this evening’s MLB main slate. I’m really liking the balance across both pitching and hitting/stack options today. And Coors Field is of course back on the menu as well. Weather concerns are minimal so, if all goes according to plan, we should see all 12 games play without significant issue tonight.

For the NFL fans, don’t forget to be on the lookout for all of the week one content with multiple podcasts and newsletters heading your way in the coming days. For many sports fans and DFS enthusiasts, it’s about to be the most wonderful time of the year! It is full on take down season! Now, let’s dive right into this evening’s baseball action!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

A couple of games have a chance to get hit by some rain, but things would have to go very wrong for a postponement scenario to come about.

Best hitting conditions: KC @ BALL, TOR @ NYY, TB @ BOS, WAS @ ATL, PHI @ MIL, SF @ COL

Best pitching conditions: SEA@ HOU, CWS @ OAK, TEX @ ARI, LAA @ SD

WAS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Some pop-up storms in the Atlanta area could bring some late start/in-game delay risk to this game. A postponement situation would be very unlikely, but maybe not 100% off the table. At this time, I won’t be avoiding any players from this game based on the weather.

CIN @ CHC (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): There’s a chance for storms to be clearing the area right before or around the first pitch. The potential for a late start is higher than an in-game delay. Once they get going, there should be no further problems (if there are any to begin with). 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right for a good portion of this game will provide a little bump to bats.

LAD @ STL (7:45 ET, O/U TBD): Rain chances increase in the later innings, but they should be able to get nine innings in here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.1k | vs. LAA

Snell will check-in as perhaps the most obvious (and most popular) pitching target on the slate. He has looked completely dialed in over the last month and has racked up an absurd 41.4% kRate over his last five starts alongside a 1.71 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He’s averaging 30 DKFP/49 FDFP per game in that span while throwing an average of 106 pitches/gm as well. Snell had a no-hitter going through seven innings in his previous start before being pulled due to a high pitch count. The Angels got shut out last night by the Rangers who started a rookie on the mound and LAA is hitting just .235 vs. LHPs with a .299 wOBA and 89 wRC+ over the last month. Snell will be pitching at home tonight where he averages 65% more fantasy points and the Padres will check in as the heaviest favorite on the slate, by far (-320).

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. WAS

Fried is another southpaw worth targeting today. He’s been rock solid across his last seven starts (46.0 IP) while acquiring a 1.76 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, 26.6% kRate, 2.9% Walk Rate, .199 opp AVG, and .235 opp wOBA. Two of those starts came against this weakened post-trade deadline Nationals team who Fried held to only two runs across 12.0 IP while securing a strikeout per inning (and earning a win in both games). Washington has been an above average offense against lefties (112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in the last month, ranks 12th) but most of the lefties they’re earning hits and runs against are coming at the expense of pitchers as talented as Fried. He’ll have a good chance to continue his late-season surge today and the Braves check-in as heavy -235 favorites.

Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | @ BAL

Kowar is purely a GPP punt play who should likely only be considered as an SP2 option on DK. But he is cheap and would save some salary, allowing you to pay up for a strong SP1 and just about any big bats you would want. Kowar only has four appearances and 11.0 IP in this, his rookie season. It absolutely did not start off all that great for him, but he held his own in his last outing against Cleveland where he pitched six full innings (94 pitches) and allowing four hits, three walks, and zero earned runs while striking out six. In 16 starts and 80.2 IP in Triple-A this season, Kowar posted a very strong 34% kRate alongside a 3.46 ERA and 3.27 xFIP. So, he does have legitimate strikeout potential but only time will tell if that transfers to the MLB level. Kowar has shown issues with walks and some added risk with him stems from the fact that he’ll be on the road in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. The O’s bats have also been solid lately and their 119 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks checks in at 8th in the MLB. But, if he can hold it together for five or six innings once again, it won’t be terribly difficult to return value at these DFS salaries.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• San Francisco Giants vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

• Kansas City Royals vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

• Atlanta Braves vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

• Cincinnati Reds vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

Secondary Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

ERod is a quality pitcher who I usually won’t look to stack against. But, at the same time, the Rays offense is just too hard to ignore lately and they’ve been dominant when playing on the road outside of their pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Tampa Bay has averaged 5.84 runs/gm on the road this year, which leads the entire MLB by a fairly wide margin (Dodgers are 2nd with 5.32 runs/gm on the road). They’ve averaged nine runs per game in their last three trips to Fenway and they’ve also posted a league-best 149 wRC+ vs. LHPs across the last month while batting .298 with a .382 wOBA. It’s very possible that they can find some success against Rodriguez this evening and the Red Sox bullpen has been a borderline bottom 10 relief unit over the last 30 days as well.

Oakland Athletics vs. Jimmy Lambert (RHP), CWS

Prior to their shutout loss to the Blue Jays on Sunday, the A’s bats had been humming, averaging 8.2 runs/gm in their prior five contests. They’ll get a chance to go up against rookie right-hander Jimmy Lambert who has not looked all that great through his first two starts and ten innings pitched in the big leagues (9.00 ERA, 6.52 xFIP, 2.13 WHIP, 51.9% Fly Ball %,.482 opp wOBA). Lambert produced some not-so-terrible minor league stats and has some quality strikeout potential, but nothing jumps off the page enough for me to want to actively avoid playing hitters against him. The hope here is that Oakland can run away with this one early against Lambert, otherwise the White Sox could deploy some of their elite bullpen arms to keep this game competitive.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

It seems counter-intuitive to place the Rockies in this section considering they’re playing at home in Coors Field, but Logan Webb has been on an absolute tear of his own (1.06 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 31.7% kRate L5Gms) so I would not expect many people to feel comfortable rolling out Colorado bats tonight. However, Webb has shown some noticeable negative splits when pitching on the road this season where his ERA is nearly two runs higher than what he’s posted at home, and his kRate drops by 6%. In three career starts at Coors Field (14.0 IP), Webb has accrued a 7.07 ERA, so it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he struggles tonight. I wouldn’t bet on it, necessarily, and I believe he actually makes for an interesting contrarian starting pitcher candidate. But I’d also be surprised if any Rockies hitter is more than 10% owned on this slate, so there is some leverage to be had there.

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

SS Wander Franco | DK; $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jimmy Lambert (RHP), CWS

2B/3B Jonathan India | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

2B/3B/SS Adalberto Mondesi | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Alexander Mills (LHP), BAL

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

OF Wil Myers | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

OF Darin Ruf | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

2B/SS Thairo Estrada | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

OF DJ Peters | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

I gotta go back to my guy Austin Riley who continues to crush in these righty on righty match-ups. In his last 20 games vs. RHPs (57 PA), Riley is batting .431 with a .522 wOBA, .353 ISO, and five home runs with 14 RBIs -- good enough to earn himself a staggering 231 wRC+ in that span. Paolo Espino gives up his fair share of homers to RHBs with a 2.43 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate along with a .263 ISO. Riley has faced Espino in only four previous at-bats, but he clearly sees his pitchers well because he’s come away with three hits including a home run. He’s a pretty strong bet to go yard against Espino today but the Nationals bullpen is also giving up the long ball quite a bit as well (1.66 HR/9 Rate over the last month, 3rd highest).

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Check back here tomorrow for a link to the Wednesday freeroll!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.