Top MLB DFS Plays 9/6 | Eyeing the Skies in New York and Boston

September 06, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Happy Friday to all you fine folks! I’m still feeling the affects of Hurricane Dorian in my neck of the woods, so apologies on today’s newsletter being a bit delayed. This is also going to be a pretty truncated edition, however we’ll still be looking to outline some strong plays as well as some high-leverage GPP pivots for tonight’s monster 15 game slate. Let’s dive right in!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather

PHI @ NYM: Cool, wet, and very windy (20+ mph gusts -- blowing in from center). I assume that this game will play but it will just have to be done in ugly conditions. Definitely keep an eye on this one.

NYY @ BOS: Very similar conditions as New York except more rain could come into play as the game progresses. Any sort of in-game delay could lead to a postponement.

Neither one of these games should be considered “safe.” I would personally avoid anyone here in cash. Wind blowing in strongly at both parks will make home runs a tough feat as well. Approach with caution!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Clayton Kershaw | DK: $11.9k, FD: $11.7k | LHP | vs. SF

Kershaw’s match-up is a bit trickier than it appears and isn’t exactly a “set it and forget it” play. Aside from the high salary, the Giants are actually tagging up lefties pretty well lately. Really well, in fact. Over the last month versus LHPs, the Giants are hitting .319 (ranks 1st) with a 132 wRC+ (2nd), which trails only the New York Yankees. Still, Kershaw is coming in on six days rest and will be a -300 favorite pitching at home where he has a 2.53 ERA (3.51 xFIP) and 27.6% kRate with a 1.01 WHIP. He has been picking it up in the second half as well with a 33.9% kRate since the All Star break while opponents are hitting just .185 against him. Maybe look elsewhere in cash but you have to love CK for GPPs this evening.

Homer Bailey | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.2k | RHP | vs. DET

Bailey leads the way with Kershaw as today’s second -300 home favorite. Bailey has pitched extremely well his last four starts (24.1 IP) while amassing a 3-0 record, 2.22 ERA (3.05 xFIP), 28.1% kRate, and 0.95 WHIP. Two of those starts came against the Yankees as well. Anything can happen in baseball but the Tigers shouldn’t pose much of a threat here. They’re striking out a league high 29.4% of the time against RHPs in the last month while posting just a 78 wRC+ (ranks 25th). As he takes the mound in a very pitcher friendly park on six days rest, Bailey feels like one of the strongest options in the mid-range of pricing (I bet you wouldn’t have thought anyone would give such high praise to Bailey entering the season).

Pablo Lopez | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | RHP | vs. KC

Pablo Lopez has to be considered one of the best points per dollar plays this evening. He’s been pretty suspect on the road but really strong at home throughout this year. In eight home starts (47.1 IP) he has worked himself to a 2.66 ERA (3.82 xFIP), 24.7% kRate, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent .201 AVG. The Royals rank 28th versus RHPs over the last month with a 73 wRC+ while hitting just .230 as a team. With Adalberto Mondesi back in the lineup, they’ll surely improve as the season wraps up but Vegas certainly doesn’t believe that will start tonight, as Kansas City holds just a 3.9 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Adam Plutko (RHP), CLE

Plutko’s 5.67 xFIP is the worst mark among today’s starting pitchers. He’s giving up 2.06 HR/9 while striking out just 16.1% of hitters. He’s also shown some struggles on the road where he averages 35.1% fewer fantasy points. It may not be a bad idea to target him with lefty hitters considering he has struck out just 10.3% of LHBs this year while posting an awful 6.62 xFIP against them. Max Kepler, Jake Cave, and Luis Arraez are some strong lefty options and you can also never count out Nelson Cruz against any pitcher in baseball.

Seattle Mariners vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

Valdez has struggled mightily with allowing free bases to hitters by pitching for a 12.1% Walk Rate this year. This has helped lead to a a slate-worst 1.59 WHIP. I wouldn’t consider this a safe stack but I believe you can catch some Mariners at relatively low ownership tonight and they did just hang nine runs on Houston yesterday. Hopefully they saved some juice for tonight. Dylan Moore, Austin Nola, and Tom Murphy are some of my preferred Seattle bats.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Clay Buchholz (RHP), TOR

Buchholz hasn’t seen a ton of action this season but in 19.2 IP on the road he has recorded a 6.68 ERA (5.75 xFIP) with a 1.47 WHIP, 2.29 HR/9, and only a 12.9% kRate. After Buchholz is retired, Toronto will go to their struggling bullpen which has a poor 5.49 xFIP over the last month and has allowed 1.79 HR/9 along the way. Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, and Willy Adames are some Rays I would target.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

3B/SS Alex Bregman (RHB) | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tommy Milone (LHP), SEA

It’s a pretty penny you’ll have to pay but from a floor perspective, there aren't many hitters in baseball better than Bregman. In 93 at bats over the last month, Bregs is hitting .400 with an .834 wOBA+ISO, six home runs, and 28 RBI. In his last 20 games versus LHPs (30 plate appearances) he’s rocking a .444 AVG with a .966 wOBA+ISO. He already has a home run to his name off of Tommy Milone in nine plate appearances while batting .714. He should light up the box score once again tonight against Milone and a reeling Mariners bullpen.

1B Matt Olson (LHB) | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

Olson is another slugger who has been seeing the ball well near the top of a productive A’s order. Across his last 20 games versus RHPs (66 plate appearances), Olson has hit .404 with an .891 wOBA+ISO, five homers, and 16 RBI. Turnbull allows just under a .300 AVG to lefty bats along with 44.6% Hard Contact and a poor 5.42 xFIP. There’s a decent chance Olson nabs his 29th dinger of the season tonight.

3B Evan Longoria (RHB) | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

If you recall from the Kershaw mention above, the Giants have been hitting lefties very well lately. Longoria is one of the guys leading that charge. In his previous 36 plate appearances versus southpaws, Longoria has a .441 AVG with an .833 wOBA+ISO, three home runs, 10 RBI, and an excellent 222 wRC+ rating. He’s also struck out just 5.6% of the time in that stretch. You can’t ever count on Kershaw giving up too much, but he does allow some decent power to the right side of the plate and has given up eight home runs in his last three starts. Don’t be surprised if the Giants pop a couple four baggers off of him tonight. Longoria would be one of the leading candidates to do so.

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