Top MLB DFS Plays 9/4 | Finding a Friday Takedown

September 04, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Happy Friday to all you fine folks out there. Who’s ready to kick off this Labor Day Weekend with a bang?! There is SO MUCH going on in the world of sports. On top of daily baseball action, the NBA playoffs are rolling along and have featured some insane finishes, college football is already underway, NFL returns in a few days, the first round of the PGA Tour Championship began today, NHL playoffs are still underway, and there’s much, much more. After months without any sort of sports fix, we’re about to be getting a full-on non-stop overdose of action. It might be time to buy another TV or three.

With several doubleheaders scheduled across the MLB, there are a whopping 20 games set to be played today (is that some sort of record, by the way?). For our DFS main slate, we’ll be focusing on nine of those games this evening. This one feels like a pretty well-rounded set of match-ups as those nine games feature several solid pitching options and quite a few offenses in enticing spots. It also seems like the weather will be very cooperative today, so let’s get to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

No notable weather conditions to comment on today.

But keep an eye on the Daily Dashboard leading up to lock in case anything changes!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.7k | @ CHC

Flaherty won’t be the safest option on the board today but I’m on board with him as a high-dollar leverage play if you’re looking to pivot away from his counterpart, Yu Darvish. Flaherty is still on the path to getting fully stretched out but in his most recent start on Aug. 29th against Cleveland, he went five innings on 83 pitches. If he can push more towards 95 pitches today, he’s got a shot at a strong fantasy score. Are the Cubs an easy match-up? No, not really. Their .336 wOBA and 110 wRC+ versus RHPs are both top ten figures in the league and their .218 ISO ranks 3rd. But what they do struggle with is strikeouts. Against righties, they’re striking out 27% of the time -- only the Brewers and Tigers strike out more. Flaherty’s K numbers are down from a 29.9% kRate in 2019 to a 23.3% kRate this season, but he is still ramping up to hit his mid-season stride. He has just 18.2 IP under his belt on the season and even though his strikeout rate isn’t where it should be, everything else looks very solid. He’s allowing just a .164 AVG and .223 wOBA with a stout 0.80 WHIP, 1.93 ERA, and 3.43 xFIP. Also, you should ignore his low fantasy point total in his other start against the Cubs this season where he pitched just 1.2 innings. That was a short outing by design, as the Cardinals were coming off of that extended break when they had a COVID-19 outbreak in the clubhouse.

Dane Dunning (RHP) | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.7k | @ KC

It’s difficult to look past Dunning when you’re searching for a value arm on this slate. And that $5,800 price tag on DK will almost certainly make him the chalk SP2 of the day over there. But I can’t argue against it. Dunning has impressed through his first two career MLB starts. In 9.1 IP, he has thrown for a 40% kRate, 19.7% SwStr% and allowed a .152 AVG, .204 wOBA and has posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.83 xFIP. Those numbers are obviously going to regress, especially the strikeouts, but he profiled as more of a strikeout specialist throughout his stint in the minor leagues so we still expect a solid amount of Ks, just not anything near that 40% kRate. The only worry I have is the fact that he’ll be facing Kansas City in back-to-back starts, which often works more in favor of the opposing offense rather than the pitcher. Regardless, Dunning completely dumbfounded this KC lineup as he held them to zero hits and just a single base runner (walked) thru five innings and struck out seven on just 79 pitches. A repeat performance will be difficult, but the leash on Dunning’s pitch count should be extended a bit further in his third career start in the big league.

Others to Consider:

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $11k, FD: $11.2k | vs. STL

If you can find some solid value bats, Darvish looks like the safest option on the board today. Aside from a lackluster performance in the Cubs season opener, Darvish has been excellent in every other start this season. He holds and elite 1.47 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, 30.8% kRate, 16.5% SwStr%, and 1.00 WHIP. He’s also allowing just a 27.1% Hard Hit%. The Cardinals have some tough guys to get out but Darvish played well against them a couple weeks back when he went six innings on 98 pitches and gave up just one earned run on eight hits while striking out seven (24.1 DKFP/46 FDFP). I’d expect a similar performance to be around his baseline today.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. TEX

Kikuchi is not going to ever really be a safe option, even in excellent match-ups, but he always has a chance to come through with a sneaky strong performance. He did pitch quite well in his last start against the vaunted Padres offense where he pitched his way to 17.1 DKFP and 30 FDFP. His match-up with the Rangers is much more forgiving, as they rank 28th in the MLB with a 70 wRC+ versus LHPs. He’s a volatile GPP-only play, but don’t be surprised if Kikuchi comes through today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: I could imagine plenty of ownership going towards the Mets today as they get a plus match-up with Jake Arrieta who is coming off of a big time blow up in his last start against Atlanta. This PHI @ NYM match-up is the one game with an implied total in the double-digits, so I’d expect the Phillies (vs. Rick Porcello) to see a fair amount of ownership as well. As always, there’s nothing wrong with stacking guys from these teams. Just perhaps look to differentiate elsewhere, as ownership could be fairly high on several of these guys.

Chicago White Sox vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

The White Sox normally land on my radar more when a lefty is taking the mound against them but they’re still an above average offense against RHPs and have so many dangerous bats in their order. Singer is a rookie pitcher who has looked alright at times this season thru seven starts and 34.2 IP, but he has really struggled in his last three starts (14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 14.1% kRate, 2.50 HR/9). Singer is also making back-to-back starts against the White Sox, which as I often mention, tends to favor the offense. Singer hasn’t pitched more than 5.2 innings in any game this season, so Chicago should see plenty of at-bats against a Royals bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most vital pitching categories.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

The Dodgers are typically a pricey stack option but they just rarely put up a dud offensively, so some 3-to-5 man stack combination tends to work out very well in GPPs. Senzatela did not enjoy his time on the mound when he went against this Dodgers squad back on August 23rd. Through 5.1 IP, Senzatela gave up six earned runs on seven hits, which included FOUR home runs, and he struck out just one hitter. In 113 career plate appearances against the current Dodgers roster, Senzatela is allowing a .297 AVG and .401 wOBA while striking out just 14.2% of hitters. The Dodgers’.356 wOBA, .246 ISO, and 126 wRC+ against RHPs all rank 1st in baseball.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Kansas City Royals vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), CWS

Yes, Dunning has looked very impressive through two starts but he’s going to carry significant ownership tonight (particularly on DK) and a young pitcher is always vulnerable to a blow up performance… especially when facing the same team in B2B starts. If you’re someone who plays a ton of lineups in GPPs, I’d give maybe 10% of lineups some Royals stack exposure.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Rick Porcello (RHP), NYM

As I kind of alluded to above, this game features perhaps the best scoring environment of the day but if you’re not stacking hitters up from this one, Hoskins seems like a strong one-off target. In his last ten games (40 at-bats), Hoskins is hitting .375 with a .560 wOBA, .550 ISO, four doubles, six home runs, and 12 RBI -- numbers elite enough to earn him a 257 wRC+ rating in that time. Rick Porcello has shown very poor reverse splits this season. Porcello has faced RHBs 80 times this season and is allowing a massive .373 AVG, .430 wOBA, .213 ISO, 1.78 WHIP, and is striking out just 15% of hitters on that side of the plate. There’s no reason to expect Hoskins’ hot bat to cool down tonight.

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

After a brief stint on the IL with a quad injury, Brantley has rapidly returned to being perhaps the best hitter within the Houston lineup. Since his August 23rd return to the lineup, Brantley has played eight games (29 at-bats) and is hitting .379 with a .486 wOBA, .379 ISO, five doubles, two home runs, and 10 RBI (218 wRC+). Brantley has done most of that damage over his last three games, so we’ll see if he can keep the momentum going tonight. Dylan Bundy has been really solid this season but he has traditional splits and most problems he has run into on the year have been against lefty hitters (like Brantley). Against LHBs, Bundy has a below average 4.55 xFIP, 20% kRate, and all four home runs he has given up this season have been from that side of the plate. Brantley is a strong one-off target and is too cheap on DK.

OF Shin-Soo Choo | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Choo is another guy who just seems too cheap, particularly on DK. He likely gets a top three spot in the Rangers' order tonight, despite the lefty-on-lefty match-up. Kikuchi has actually shown some reverse split struggles this season. Against 28 lefty batters faced this year, Kikuchi is allowing a .346 AVG alongside a 1.94 WHIP. Choo has traditional splits and is better suited to roll out against righties, but for these prices he’s worth a look tonight even though the Rangers have a low 4.0 implied run total.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Rick Porcello (RHP), NYM

Hoskins came through for KC Bubba in yesterday’s home run calls, and I’ll be going to him today for all the reasons I mentioned above in the one-off section. Hoskins’ six barreled balls over the last two weeks is tied for second most on the slate and Porcello simply hasn’t had ‘it’ this season, especially against RHBs. Luke Voit, Eric Hosmer, and Tim Anderson have come through for me this week so hopefully Hoskins can help me make it a 4-for-5 week on the home run calls. Let’s gooooo!

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