Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Happy Hump Day ladies and gents! I noticed some chatter about some nice Tuesday wins in the MLB chat ( ZZzZzz 💰🔥👍 ) so congrats to you guys on the take downs! Love to see it. We’ve got eight games on the docket for our MLB main slate this evening. Overall, this is far from the most depleted pitching slates and really I think there are plenty of viable routes to take. Shane Bieber headlines the day while some other intriguing options reside near the top of pricing, along with some low/mid-range targets worth considering. On the offensive side, seven teams have an implied total of five runs or higher so, in general, this feels like a pretty balanced set of games. There are no significant weather concerns at the time of this writing so we should be able to get right into the thick of things!

Side note: I live in Charleston, SC and I’m preparing to ride out Hurricane Dorian so, in effort to wrap things up before potential power/internet outages kick in, this newsletter may be more on the abridged side of things. Don’t worry much about me! I’m stocked up on supplies and don’t live in a very flood-prone area. And hey, if things get wild maybe I’ll post some videos later on my Twitter for anyone interested. Best of luck to anyone else along the Carolinas and southern coasts!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Hyun-Jin Ryu | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.4k | LHP | vs. COL

Shane Bieber is the clear-cut top arm of the day and, among high salary pitchers, Zac Gallen will garner plenty of interest from me as well. Even though Ryu has had a rough go as of late, which has included some tough match-ups, it’s tough to ignore these near season-low salaries. Load management is a concern that may come into play for Ryu here, but I’d expect him to still hit a pitch count of at least 90. Remember that Ryu has typically dominated at home this season, with a 1.54 ERA (2.93 xFIP), 0.88 WHIP, 25.7% kRate, and an opponent .205 AVG/.231 wOBA. Away from Coors Field this year, the Rockies have a massive 29.7% kRate versus LHPs and a 78 wRC+ (ranks 26th). The Dodgers are the second largest favorites of the day (-300) and Ryu can certainly pay off nicely in this spot. Ideal GPP pivot.

Jakob Junis | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | RHP | vs. DET

Junis could perhaps be one of, if not the, chalkiest arm of the day but if he turns out to be an optimal play then high ownership doesn’t exactly matter (unless you fade him). In three starts (19 IP) versus Detroit this season, Junis has permitted seven runs (3.32 ERA) with a 24.7% kRate and allowed an opponent .233 AVG/.392 wOBA. Not incredibly elite numbers or anything but good enough to average 19.4 DKFP/37 FDFP per start with a strong floor in each game. The Tigers have struck out 29.6% of the time versus RHPs in the last month while accounting for an 84 wRC+ (ranks 23rd). With a stout -220 moneyline, the Royals trail only the Dodgers and Indians in terms of being the heaviest favorites of the day.

Ivan Nova | DK: $5.1k, FD: $7.7k | RHP | @ CLE

I’m not crazy about the FanDuel price but for $5,100 on DraftKings, Nova is worth a GPP punt as an SP2. Nova has actually performed admirably against a strong Indians team this year. In three starts (21 IP) he has allowed just five runs (2.14 ERA) with a low 1.10 WHIP with the Indians hitting for a .256 AVG/.285 wOBA. He’s only thrown for 14.1% strikeouts in those three games but he has still managed to average 17 DKFP/34 FDFP. Nova also has a 1.56 ERA over his last eight starts (52 IP) but I should also note he has a poor 5.12 xFIP backing that up, so Lady Luck has been on his side. Cleveland has statistically been very average versus RHPs lately, ranking 14th over the last month with a 100 wRC+ along with a .251 AVG (17th). They could certainly get to Nova in this spot but he’s definitely had their number this year.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Some of these Dodger bats sunk a lot of people yesterday but you have to consider them another strong stack candidate and perhaps they’ll check in at lower ownership this go ‘round. Senzatela has held the Dodgers to just four runs across two starts (11.1 IP) but I’d look for that trend to flip tonight. Over Senzatela’s last five starts (17.2 IP) he checks in with a wild 16.81 ERA (5.70 xFIP) while allowing a .429 AVG with just a 9.1% kRate. With Colorado pitchers, you should typically check how their home/road splits pan out considering how handicapped they are when pitching in Coors Field. In Senzatela’s case he has a poor 6.71 ERA (5.47 xFIP) on the road this season with a 1.82 WHIP and .316 AVG/.381 wOBA. Not good. The Colorado bullpen’s 5.22 xFIP over the last 30 days ranks as the fourth worst mark in the league so there’s not much concern whenever Senzatela is retired. The Dodger lineup and order is pretty fluid day to day but I’d just recommend rolling out your favorite guys whenever the official lineup is released.

Kansas City Royals vs. Edwin Jackson (RHP), DET

Also probably not much of a surprise here. Jackson has allowed 16 ER over his last three starts (12.1 IP) as well as a 2.43 WHIP and .375 AVG/428 wOBA. He doesn’t discriminate against either side of the plate as he’s permitted above a .308 AVG/.429 wOBA/.298 ISO to both righties and lefties. Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, and Ryan O’Hearn have been the most productive hitters against RHPs lately while Hunter Dozier brings some home run upside to the plate as well. A now healthy Adalberto Mondesi also needs to be considered, as he'll bat second tonight playing in his third game back from the IL.

Miami Marlins vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), PIT

Here’s a leverage stack for ya. Trevor Williams has a slate worst 6.25 xFIP over the last month with a 1.64 WHIP and 11.7% kRate. He’s coming off of strong starts in back-to-back games and, considering attacking Miami with pitchers has been one of the more profitable ventures in MLB DFS this year, you have to imagine Williams will carry some strong ownership today. You rarely ever want to take more than two or three guys in Marlins stacks because, well, they’re just so bad. But they’re still capable of stringing together five or six runs on occasion and they’re almost always going to be <10% owned. Starlin Castro, Jon Berti, and Jorge Alfaro are some of the more preferred Miami bats.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP), LAD

Arenado is certainly swinging a hot bat but the main reason for highlighting the All Star third baseman is his phenomenal BvP history that he’ll have working in his favor today. In 24 plate appearances versus Ryu, Arenado is hitting .636 with four home runs and a 1.544 wOBA+ISO. You rarely find a history like that, especially against an ace-level pitcher like Ryu. I know I have Ryu highlighted above but he’s obviously not exactly in his best form right now. If he’s unable to right the ship today and ends up getting throttled a bit by Colorado, you’d have to think Arenado will be to blame for a good chunk of the damage.

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), STL

I assume Wacha will be another cheap arm that people look to roster today but it’s important to realize that he will be pitching on just four days rest, so some fatigue or workload limitations may come into play. Yastrzemski is about as boom/bust as it gets but he’s a tremendous home run threat any time he steps into the batter’s box. In his last 20 games versus RHPs (56 plate appearances) he is hitting just .250 but has six home runs with a .795 wOBA+ISO. This season versus righties, Yastrzemski has a 45% Hard Contact Rate with a 50.6% Fly Ball Rate. With an average exit velocity of 97.0 mph versus RHPs over the last two weeks (top 95%), one barreled ball could easily result in a dinger for Yastrzemski tonight.

OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

There’s no guarantee that Brown lands in the starting lineup tonight, due to the lefty on lefty match-up, but if he does get slotted in then the value seems too nice to pass up. Seth Brown has wasted no time making an immediate impact in his first taste of MLB action. So far, through eight games, he is 13-for-29 (.448) with three doubles, two triples, nine RBI, and a 231 wRC+ rating. Obviously this is a small sample size and he’ll regress but he should continue to return solid value until his price hikes up. He has yet to card his first major league home run but it may not take much longer. In 112 games in Triple-A this year he rocked 37 home runs out of the park and amassed a .337 ISO in the process. Brown is already proving to be an XBH machine so I would recommend keeping this guy in mind as we wind down the regular season.

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