Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 9/30 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

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We close out the month of September with another healthy MLB slate as nine games await on deck this evening. There is some quality balance between pitching options and viable bats/stacks, so this should be a relatively stress-free slate to build for. Fewer eyes are going to fall on MLB DFS today with Thursday Night Football stealing the spotlight, but there is still money to be made and someone has to win it! Let’s gooooo!

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Another pretty quiet evening, weather-wise. Our only notable concern will once again reside in Kansas City. Slight concern in Minnesota.

DET @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance of some light rain during the game with heavier precipitation arriving later in the evening, likely after the game has ended. As long as those late storms hold off, this one should play without major issue.

CLE @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Thunderstorms around the KC area could linger over into this game. A late start or in-game delay is a decent possibility, but we should expect them to get this game in one way or another. Double-check the forecast closer to lock!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. DET

There are a couple higher-end pitchers on the slate that I also don’t necessarily mind rolling out -- Robbie Ray ($10k/$10.8K) and Lance McCullers Jr. ($9.6k/$9.7k) -- I’d avoid Shane Bieber ($9.8k/$10.5k) since he’s likely not going to see a full workload (only threw 34 pitches in his first start off the IL last week).

Joe Ryan has thoroughly impressed through his first four career MLB starts. In 22.0 IP, he has acquired a 2.45 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 0.59 WHIP and he’s striking out 32.1% of hitters while walking only 3.8% and holding them to a .133 AVG/.182 wOBA. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t stick in the Twins rotation next season so this is probably a guy we’re going to play quite a bit in 2022. He draws a plus match-up against a Detroit team that has struck out 25.7% of the time versus RHPs this season and is hitting only .228 with a 77 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks. Hopefully, given his DFS salary increases, Ryan will push for a more extended workload with a mid-90s pitch count.

Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | vs. PHI

Anderson will have a chance to be a major factor in the Braves clinching the NL East and a postseason berth with a winning performance tonight. He’s been trending back up recently and has also pitched four solid games against the Phillies this season. In those four games (23.1 IP), Anderson has secured a 3.09 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 25.8% kRate, and allowed a .224 AVG/.291 wOBA. He’s been a bit more reliable when pitching at home (+27.5% fantasy points) and should likely carry <15% ownership on this slate due to “safer” options being on the board around Anderson.

Rich Hill (LHP), NYM | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MIA

Given how well old man Rich Hill has pitched over the last month, he deserves some legitimate consideration, especially at these salaries combined with the juicy Marlins match-up. In his previous six starts going back to Aug. 27th (31.2 IP), Hill has posted an excellent 2.84 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 27.8% kRate, .229 AVG/.282 wOBA while giving up just one home run (0.30 HR/9 Rate). The Marlins have been dreadful against lefties. Over the last month, they’ve had 256 plate appearances versus southpaws and have come away hitting a mere .174 with a .229 wOBA, .102 ISO, and 44 wRC+ with a lofty 27% kRate. Truly just some, awful, awful numbers. I’d be shocked if they’re the team that ends Rich Hill’s late-season resurgence. 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

Boston Red Sox vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

> Back to attacking the worst pitching staff in baseball

> BOS: 5.6 implied runs, leads the slate

> Wells: 7.96 ERA, 6.25 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, .395 opp wOBA

> BOS: 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 5th

> BAL Bullpen: I’ll forego listing the stats… they’re still terrible

> Camden Yards: Excellent hitter’s park

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), SD

> LAD: 5.0 implied runs

> LAD: 131 wRC+ over the last week

> Velasquez Last 5 Starts: 13.86 ERA, 2.11 ERA, .357 opp AVG, .474 opp wOBA, 2.9 HR/9 Rate… yikes

> SD Bullpen: Bottom 10 relief unit over the last month

Secondary Stacks ✌️

Cleveland Indians vs. Angel Zerpa (LHP), KC

> CLE: 4.6 implied runs

> Zerpa: Making his MLB debut. Has not impressed during his time in high-A ball.

> CLE: Top 10 offense versus LHPs over the last month (108 wRC+, ranks 8th)

> KC Bullpen: Essentially a middle-of-the-pack relief unit

Minnesota Twins vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

> MIN: 4.7 implied run total

> Skubal: Workload is being severely limited in a lost season -- hasn’t been allowed to throw more than 50 pitches in any of his previous four starts

> Skubal vs. RHBs: 2.41 HR/9 Rate

> DET Bullpen: Should pitch the majority of this game. Their 5.20 xFIP over the last month ranks as the 3rd worst in the MLB

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

> SF: 4.8 implied runs

> SF: Definitely won’t be ultra sneaky, but should be under-owned

> SF: Potential low ownership following just a one run performance last night

> SF vs. ARI this season: .298 AVG, .384 wOBA, 142 wRC+

> Bumgarner Last 5 Starts: 6.28 ERA, 17.7% kRate

> ARI Bullpen: 5.61 xFIP over the last month, worst in the MLB

One-Off Bats ☝️

2B/SS Marcus Semien | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), NYY

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), SD

1B/OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Alexander Wells (LHP), BAL

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

C Buster Posey | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Myles Straw | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Angel Zerpa (LHP), KC

SS/2B Javy Baez | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B Eric Hosmer | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Michael Conforto | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

3B/OF Hunter Dozier | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

C Nick Fortes | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), NYM

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/SS Marcus Semien | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), NYY

With his 44th home run in yesterday’s game, Marcus Semien set the all-time MLB home run record by a primary second baseman. I’ll bank on Semien keeping the momentum going into tonight’s series finale against the Yankees, which the Blue Jays would love to win in order to gain ground on an AL wild card berth. Semien has knocked out 12 homers in the last month, including five in his last 20 games against RHBs along with a .676 wOBA+ISO. He will face off with Corey Kluber, who has given up a moderately high .204 ISO to RHBs along with a 1.66 HR/9 Rate. Let’s get No. 45 and extend that record even further, Marcus!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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