Top MLB DFS Plays 9/3 | Six Game DK Main Slate Rundown (4:05 ET Start!)

September 03, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Thursday is typically the day of the week where the MLB schedule can get a little ‘wonky’ and, as a result, DFS slates stray away from their usual structure and start times. The MLB schedule for this particular Thursday really embodies that trend, so this will be a bit of an unusual edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger. For this newsletter, I’m going to focus solely on the DraftKings main slate (and pricing) which will feature six games and start up about three hours earlier than usual -- contests will start up at 4:05 ET today. I hate to exclude the FanDuel players, but the FD main slate has just four games on the docket and begins at 7:10 ET. DraftKings does have a three game evening slate posted, which also begins at 7:10 ET, but for whatever reason they have elected to leave out the ‘night cap’ game between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers (9:40 ET). Basically, everything is all over the place between the DK/FD slate alignment today. However, much of the info below will obviously apply to the four games which are mutually shared with the FD main slate. Barring massive salary discrepancies (relative to typical DK & FD pricing), feel free to consider any players and teams mentioned below.

A six game slate gives us a fairly limited amount of options to begin with so this entire newsletter will be on the shorter side. I’m also writing this early in the morning so things like projected lineups and weather could look much different once we actually get closer to these games starting up. But let’s tackle this short slate and try to snag some cheddar along the way!

DraftKings main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

WAS @ PHI: This seems like the only weather-worry game on this slate. Things should start out dry but rain chances increase in the later innings. This is the first game on the DK main slate (4:05 ET) so we should be able to have an idea of how the forecast will work out if we check on the outlook prior to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) | $10,300 | vs. ARI

Okay, so Kershaw is likely going to be 90% owned in DK cash games tonight (and 65+% in GPPs) but he’s hard to get away from unless you’re simply looking to be ultra contrarian. He has a strong 29.5% kRate this season (30.0 IP) and a slate-best 1.80 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, and 13.4% SwStr%. The D-Backs have only struck out 19.7% of the time against LHPs this season but their .276 wOBA and 69 wRC+ both rank 29th in the MLB. Kershaw is the clear-cut cash game SP1 on DK tonight.

Taijuan Walker (RHP) | $4,800 | @ BOS

Toronto acquired Walker a few days ahead of this past Monday’s trade deadline. He already has a win with his new team after he took the mound this past Saturday against Baltimore and threw for 92 pitches across six scoreless innings and amassed 21.3 DKFP. Across 33.0 IP this season, his numbers are not super impressive (21.2% kRate, 3.27 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP) but they’re far from abysmal and he probably has no place being the lowest-priced pitcher on this slate. In most major offensive categories, Boston has been average, or below average, against RHPs all season and they also strike out 25.1% of the time. I expect Kershaw/Walker to be the chalk SP1/SP2 combo on DK, but I can’t really argue against it, especially for cash game lineup builds.

Others to Consider:

Mike Clevinger (RHP) | $8,700 | @ LAA

Clevinger had a top tier 33.9% kRate across 21 starts and 126.0 IP last season. He hasn’t shown the same K upside yet in 2020 (four starts, 22.2IP, 22.6% kRate) but that’s still a small sample size and he’s gearing up to start fresh with his new team out in San Diego. That electric Padres offense is very capable of setting Clevinger up for that sweet win bonus as well, and I do expect his kRate to start to climb back up as the season moves forward.

Zach Eflin (RHP) | $7,800 | vs. WAS

Eflin actually leads this slate with a 33.3% kRate and his 3.02 xFIP and 3.18 SIERA ratings are only bested by Clayton Kershaw today. Washington won’t be the easiest foe to face but Eflin mowed down a strong Braves team in his last start (7 IP, 83 pitches, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 31.4 DKFP) and he really hasn’t had a poor outing yet this season thru five starts. He’ll be an enticing GPP pivot on this small slate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Eh, it’s a six game slate so play the bats you like. Worrying about high ownership is a bit overrated anyhow since it is really easy to differentiate elsewhere in your lineups.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Sanchez has been pretty terrible this year (6.90 ERA, 5.35 xFIP, 16.6% kRate, 1.70 WHIP, 2.40 HR/9) and that Nat’s bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key categories. The Phillies were even able to tag up Max Scherzer a bit yesterday (7 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 ER) and their offense had been on a roll heading into that game, so Sanchez taking the mound today isn’t going to scare me off of these bats.

New York Mets vs. JA Happ (LHP), NYY

Happ may be coming off of strong outings in back-to-back games but he just faced the Mets in his last start five days ago and it’s always dangerous for a pitcher to face the same offense in B2B starts. Happ also has underlying numbers this season which indicate that he is due for significant regression. While he has allowed just a .188 AVG and posted a relatively decent 4.05 ERA, he is getting extremely lucky with a .167 BABIP (against a career .286 BABIP). His 6.08 xFIP and 6.19 SIERA are also the worst figures among today’s starters and he is striking out just 13.9% of batters faced. Even though they struggled against him the last time out, the Mets could be the team that delivers some regression to the doorstep of Happ’s stat lines today.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

There are virtually no convincing stats to back up a D-backs stack today but Kershaw will almost certainly be the highest owned arm on the slate (and by a considerable margin). In the 5-10% off-chance that Kershaw either doesn’t bring his best stuff to the mound or if he sustains some sort of freak injury, any sort of Arizona stack that happens to pop off would be an ultra contrarian and low-owned combination, especially for a short six-game slate. If you’re rolling out just one or two lineups, forget this D-backs stack mention and focus elsewhere. But if you’re rolling 20 lineups out today, I’d throw in maybe one-to-three lineups with some combination of D-backs stacks.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Corey Seager | $4,900 | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

1B Rhys Hoskins | $4,700 | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

OF Randall Grichuk | $3,800 | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Tim Anderson | $5,500 | vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

Okay, Anderson has cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but I’m still giving him great odds to go yard off of Duffy today considering how much he has crushed southpaw pitching lately. Against lefties this season, Anderson is hitting .471 with a massive .653 wOBA, .647 ISO, and a 332 wRC+. Even for a relatively small sample size in this truncated 2020 season, those sort of numbers are absolutely obscene. Five of Anderson’s six home runs in 2020 have come against lefty pitchers in less than half the amount of plate appearances (37 PAs vs. LHPs, 84 PAs vs. RHPs). Duffy has traditional splits, which means, as a lefty, he struggles more against the right side of the plate. All six of Duffy’s home runs allowed this year have come from RHBs (like Anderson) so here’s to giving up another four-bagger to my guy tonight.

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