Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Friday, everyone! I hope you’re all gearing up for this long Labor Day weekend! Before everyone fires up the grill or plants themselves into the couch with some college football playing on the big screen, we’ll have a monster 14-game MLB slate to knock out of the park beforehand. For such a large slate, the pitching options do feel mighty suspect today and no matter who you end up rolling out in lineups, there is a level of skepticism to be had from basically every hurler. However, when the pitching provides that uneasy feeling, it usually means there are quite a few offenses in great spots ready to take advantage of less-than-stellar arms.

Real quick, if you’re looking to get into some college football DFS this season, the newsletter for week one’s Saturday main slate (starting at noon ET) will be released a little later today!

Alright, let’s jump into the action and crush this MLB slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There will be a couple of game locations that carry at least some delay risk. A postponement scenario would be very unlikely, but it’s not 100% out of the picture.

Best hitting environments: DET @ CIN, CWS @ KC, ATL @ COL

Best pitching environments: MIN @ TB, PHI @ MIA

CWS @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Some pop-up storms in the area will bring some risk for an in-game delay or late start.

ATL @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Rain chances are at their highest before the game and during the early innings. If there is in fact any rain that affects this game, it should be clearing later on. So, a late start is possible but no issues are expected once they get going.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. TEX

Per usual, Ohtani checks in as a better value on DraftKings but it is not unreasonable to envision him finishing as the slate’s top fantasy scoring pitcher, so him carrying the highest price on FanDuel doesn’t rule him out of DFS consideration. Ohtani had a lackluster outing in his previous start (@ BAL) but it isn’t as if he got obliterated. He simply surrendered a trio of home runs in a hitter’s park (Camden Yards is #1 this season in adjusted home run factor) but still allowed just five hits total with no walks through 5.0 IP and seven strikeouts. Ohtani has now walked only four batters in his last seven starts, resulting in an incredible 2.4% Walk Rate during that span. Considering how bad he was struggling with walk earlier in the season, that’s great to see. He has also pitched very well against the Rangers in three starts against them this season -- 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 35.5% kRate while averaging 21.7 DKFP/37.3 FDFP. The thing is, the typically benign Rangers offense is swinging the bat very well and they actually lead the MLB with a ..302 AVG and 129 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks. It seems that they are determined not to be pushovers in the AL West despite this being a lost season with their awful 47-86 record. I’d still lean towards the chances being greater that Ohtani has a successful day pitching over the Rangers bats to continue staying hot. If Ohtani does end up having trouble cooling down the Texas bats, I can already see the “IMAGINE PLAYING OHTANI” messages in the chat.

Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.4k | @ MIA

If you’re a cash game player, Gibson is probably a guy who should be on your radar tonight. His upside games are few and far in between but he’s almost always a strong bet *not* to get blown up. Among qualified starters, Gibson’s 2.94 ERA ranks 11th in the MLB. He forces plenty of ground ball outs (52.1% GB%) and restricts base runners fairly well with a 1.18 WHIP. He’s not a huge strikeout guy by any means (18.9% kRate) but he’s almost always good for around a 100 pitch workload (98 pitches/gm L20Gms, 98 pitches/gm L5Gms) and does draw a weak opponent today. The Marlins rank 28th in the MLB vs. RHPs in the last 14 days with a mere 59 wRC+. They’re hitting .201 versus righties in that stretch with only a .252 wOBA, .100 ISO, and a high 26.8% kRate. Is there 30 DKFP/50 FDFP upside for Gibson today? Not likely. But this is a good spot for him to land at about 20 DKFP/35 FDFP. Given the ambiguous nature of today’s pitching options, I would think you’d take that and be happy with it -- particularly in your double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads.

Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX | DK: $5k, FD: $6.7k | @ LAA

If you’re looking for big bats and need some salary-cap relief at pitcher, Otto is going to stand out as an enticing wildcard option for GPPs. He threw five clean innings of two-hit baseball while tallying seven strikeouts in his MLB debut last Friday against a tough opponent in the Houston Astros. Of his 73 pitches thrown, 41% were 4-Seam Fastballs, 41% were Sliders, and he mixed in a few changeups and knuckle curves as well. The Astros definitely looked frustrated at the plate against him. Otto has definitely flashed some excellent strikeout stuff during his time in the minor leagues -- particularly in 65.1 IP (10 starts) at the AA-level this year where he racked up a blistering 40.7% kRate with a 3.17 ERA, 2.48 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, and .192 opp AVG. Of course, tackling an MLB offense is a completely different challenge but the Angels have been very mediocre versus RHPs all season and their bats have declined further in recent weeks. In the last month vs. RHPs, their 76 wRC+ ranks the 28th in baseball, and they’ve struck out 26.7% of the time (6th most). Vegas is even showing some respect to Otto by allocating a fairly low 4.2 implied run total to the Angels today. If Otto can keep Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh in check at the plate, he can likely run through the rest of the order with minimal issues. This game is tied for the lowest total on the slate (7.5 runs) so perhaps we see a pitcher’s duel here and maybe it’s worth considering playing both Ohtani and Otto in the same lineup over on DK. Just a thought. Don’t hound me if this turns into a 10-8 sort of game!

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Atlanta Braves vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

• Colorado Rockies vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

• Cincinnati Reds vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

• New York Yankees vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

Secondary Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

The Rays got blanked at home yesterday but I still don’t hate the idea of going back to them here, even in their pitcher-friendly ballpark. While they are extremely good on the road (5.76 runs/gm), they still rank as the #9 offense averaging 4.88 runs/gm. They’ve also been difficult for RHPs to deal with (120 wRC+ over the last month, ranks 3rd). They’ll get some cracks at Randy Dobnak who will be making his first MLB start since mid-June following a stint on the 60-day IL. He did receive a couple of rehab starts in Triple-A prior to being reinstated, so he should at least be expected to pitch around four or five innings (unless Tampa Bay really gets to him early). Dobnak is last among all SPs today with a 7.83 ERA on the year and he’s accounted for a 1.65 WHIP along with a .399 opp wOBA. He’s been getting absolutely rocked this season by way of hard hits (57.8% HH%) while allowing an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph! The Twins will have a pretty middle-of-the-pack bullpen to come in behind Dobnak, so there is some nice bounce-back potential for Tampa Bay following their 0-4 loss to Boston yesterday.

New York Mets vs. Sean Nolin (LHP), WAS

I’m not sure how confident Washington should feel about rolling out a 31-year-old pitcher who has mostly been bouncing around the minor leagues for a decade while pitching 43.1 innings at the MLB level. Nolin’s season debut back on August 12th was his first taste of MLB action since the 2015 season. It came against this same Mets team who proceeded to post eight hits and four runs on him in three innings. In his third start of the season, Nolin also pitched against the Mets last Saturday and held them relatively in check with six hits and two runs across 5.1 IP. As Nolin makes his fourth MLB start of the year, he’ll be facing the same Mets offense for the third time, including twice within the last week. That’s not an ideal situation. The Mets are showing some life at the plate very recently as well. Their 118 wRC+ over the last week ranks 5th in the MLB. Washington may very well have to go to their bullpen early in this one. It’s a Nationals bullpen that has a league worst 5.60 xFIP over the last month alongside a poor 1.55 WHIP, 16.5% kRate, and 1.48 HR/9 Rate. There is some decent potential out of a Mets stack this evening.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

So I don’t really think the Phillies will be all that sneaky tonight and the two stacks mentioned above may actually end up being less popular. But on a 14-game slate with Coors Field in play, the vast majority of offenses will carry some low ownership aside from perhaps one or two of the most favorable hitters. This game is also in a pitcher’s park and features a low 7.5 run total. Luzardo is coming off of easily his best game of the season where he held a quality Reds offense to just one hit of scoreless baseball across 6.0 IP (94 pitches) while striking out eight. Now, does he keep the momentum rolling or regress back towards the pitcher who posted his awful season-long numbers: 7.19 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, .392 opp wOBA. Time will tell but Philadelphia has been hitting well against lefties recently and are capable of putting up some decent numbers tonight.

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/OF Brandon Lowe | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK; $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

2B/3B Jonathan India | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), SD

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Sean Nolin (LHP), WAS

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Nate Lowe | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA

2B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), NYM

C Rafael Marchan | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

1B/OF Matt Vierling | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF/SS Thairo Estrada | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. David Price (LHP), LAD

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/OF Brandon Lowe | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

With a righty on the mound, LHB Brandon Lowe should slot back into the top half of the order today. Dobnak has had virtually zero success against quality lefties this season… especially those of the power hitting variety. In 85 LHBs faced, Dobnak has accounted for an 8.31 ERA, 5.63 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, .342 AVG, .433 wOBA, .291 ISO, and a 3.12 HR/9 Rate. Brandon Lowe has smacked 24 of his 31 HRs off of righties this year while creating 39.5% Hard Contact resulting in a 23.5% HR/FB rate. If he can get a couple of at-bats against Dobnak this evening, there is a strong chance he can send one over the fence. The Twins bullpen is giving up their fair share of homers as well so the home run potential doesn’t end for Lowe once Dobnak is retired.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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