Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Hump Day! We’re down to five days left in the regular season and this evening will provide another sizable slate with 13-games waiting on deck. The Coors Field match-up is off of this main slate, so no need to feel pressured into forcing Coors bats in today. Overall, the totals are quite low across the board with only 5-of-13 games carrying >8.0 run totals, so the offense could be a bit more difficult to come by.

Tensions continue to mount as several postseason bids still stand undecided. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals continue to look like the team of destiny and will make a run at their 18th consecutive win today. Sure, from a postseason perspective, there are plenty of completely meaningless games going on as well but, thankfully, some of those will provide some value from a DFS angle! But no doubt a little extra weight could be put on certain teams who would really LOVE to get one more win in the books this evening. Let’s go out and crush this final Wednesday slate of the [regular] season, shall we?

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

It’s looking like a pretty clear slate with only one game to keep an eye on.

CLE @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Some storms will be popping up around Kansas City this evening but are expected to move through fairly quickly. A delay of some sort is very possible, so starting pitchers carry some additional risk. Bats should be safe as a postponement looks unlikely. Check the outlook here closer to the first pitch!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9k | vs. PHI

I’d have absolutely no issues spending up for guys like Max Scherzer ($10.4k/$11.5k) or Frankie Montas ($9.4k/$9.9k) today, and I expect many will. But there are also several attractive options that will check in at this $8k/low-$9k range as well. Fried will be one guy in this tier to consider. He’s been absolutely dominant over the last couple of months. If you look at his numbers from his last 11 starts (74.0 IP) going back to Aug. 28th, Fried has acquired a basement level 1.58 ERA alongside a 2.97 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, 24.2% kRate, .187 opp AVG/.226 opp wOBA and he has scored less than 20 DKFP/40 FDFP just three times in that span -- none of which were truly terrible outings either. The Phillies have been a bottom 10 offense versus LHPs over the last two weeks (76 wRC+, ranks 21st) and, for a regular-season game, the stakes do not get much higher than this one tonight. My beloved Braves can drop their magic number down to one game with a win at home tonight. It should be an intense environment, but I’m looking for Fried to handle that pressure and post up another strong outing. Getting in position for a win won’t be easy, as Philly will be rolling out an excellent pitcher of their own (Aaron Nola), but the Braves do check in as -145 favorites.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ BAL

The only real worry about Eovaldi today is the strong hitter’s park he’ll be pitching in. However, if he surrenders a few hits and runs, he can offset those negative fantasy points via high strikeout potential. He has posted a 30.6% kRate dating back to Aug. 11th (9 starts, 50.1 IP) and Baltimore has struck out 26.8% of the time versus RHPs over the last two weeks (5th highest kRate in that span) while posting an 88 wRC+ (ranks 21st). Eovaldi got rocked by the Yankees in his last start but I’d look for him to get right back on track today. The Red Sox are also very heavy favorites today with -260 moneyline odds. Boston currently holds a half-game lead over the Mariners for the second AL wild card berth so there is plenty of postseason motivation involved here as well.

Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIL

Why not try to get some exposure to the Cardinals magical mojo which they seem to have an abundance of right now? Mikolas has strung together solid starts in back-to-back outings, going for a combined 12.2 IP, allowing 7 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, with 6 Ks and two wins. He’s certainly not a high strikeout pitcher (14.8% kRate) and relies heavily on groundouts (49.2% GB%). Mikolas is also facing off against the Brewers in back-to-back starts, which always adds some extra risk since his ‘stuff’ is likely still fresh in the minds of the Milwaukee bats. But, if you’re in need of a cheap GPP option, Mikolas could hit that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold under the right circumstances. He should be able to cover at least five innings which would qualify for a win bonus (assuming STL has a lead once his day is done).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

Boston Red Sox vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL

> BOS: 5.4 implied runs, tops the slate

> Lowther: 7.66 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, .379 opp wOBA, 92.2 mph avg exit velo, 51.4% HardHit%

> BOS: 113 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 6th

> BAL Bullpen (last 30 days… yes, it’s still bad): 6.62 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 1.62 HR/9, 15.3% kRate

> Camden Yards: Excellent hitter’s park

> BOS: Postseason motivations

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Weather (LHP) + Bullpen Game, SD

> LAD: 4.7 implied runs

> Weathers: Unimpressive numbers, likely only pitches 2-3 innings

> LAD: 142 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 2nd

> SD Bullpen (last 30 days): 4.83 ERA, 4.82 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 1.33 HR/9 -- bottom 10 numbers

> LAD: Postseason motivations

Secondary Stacks ✌️

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

> SF: 4.7 implied runs

> Kelly: Has struggled in his two September starts since spending a month on the COVID-19 list

> Kelly’s last two starts: 10.2 IP, 8.44 ERA, 5.43 xFIP, 16.3% kRate, 1.97 WHIP, 17 H (3 HR), .397 opp AVG/.462 opp wOBA

> SF: 134 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 1st in MLB

> ARI Bullpen (last 30 days): 5.73 xFIP ranks dead last in the league

> SF: Postseason motivations

Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

> CLE: 4.8 implied runs

> Lynch: 5.40 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .354 opp wOBA

> CLE: 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 7th

> KC Bullpen: not bad, but putting up fairly pedestrian numbers recently

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs, Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

> TEX: 4.5 implied runs

> Junk: Has allowed five HRs in 12.0 IP (3.75 HR/9)

> Junk: Fairly solid 3.75 ERA, but his 5.64 xFIP signifies notably high regression incoming

> LAA Bullpen: Borderline bottom 10 numbers over the last month

> TEX: No doubt they’ve been bad… but a good chance to post 5+ runs today (5.5 runs/gm over their last four)

> TEX: Plenty of cheap bats to stack

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

SS/2B Trea Turner | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP) + SD Bullpen Game

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL

1B/2B/3B Andy Ibanez | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Zac Lowther (LHP), BAL

SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

2B/OF Chad Pinder | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

C Nick Fortes | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

OF Willie Calhoun | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Janson Junk (RHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS/2B Trea Turner | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP) + SD Bullpen Game

Turner comes in hot with a .480 AVG, .612 wOBA, .480 ISO, and three home runs over the last week. He’s averaging 16.33 DKFP/21.12 FDFP per game in that span! Since he’s only pitching at most 2-3 innings, Trea Turner may only get one shot at Ryan Weathers today, who is allowing 2.20 HR/9 to RHBs this season, but the Padres bullpen has been giving up their fair share of home runs lately as well (1.33 HR/9, last 30 days). Regardless of whether or not Turner homers tonight, he makes for an excellent DFS play with his all-around hit/run/RBI/stolen base potential, but I’m banking on him going yard for the fourth time in the span of four games.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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