Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 9/28 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

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After a lackluster MLB Monday, where only five games were in play (three early, two late), we’re back for the final Tuesday slate of the regular season! I’ve noticed a real “final week of school” vibe in the LineStar chat -- many people are essentially checking out of MLB DFS until either the playoffs begin or until the beginning of next season. Hey, I can’t blame anyone for making that decision. Things can get even more unpredictable this late in the MLB cycle due to so many teams having nothing left to play for or they’re already locked into their playoff position. I know myself and many others will be seeing things through to the end, but it probably would be wise to scale back bankroll allocation a bit since we’ll be seeing so many more metaphorical curveballs thrown in our direction the rest of the way.

With that said, 13 games are on tap for this evening’s main slate so let’s try to keep things cookin’ down this final six-day regular-season stretch!

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Only two games with notable potential weather impacts are worth mentioning. Expecting a pretty clean slate this evening!

BOS @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Low-end chance for a late start with rain potentially clearing the area at first pitch. If a delay is needed, once they get going there should be no issues.

WAS @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Some low-coverage showers bring some minor delay risk into play. Bats should be safe regardless and that’s obviously what 99% of people playing MLB DFS will be concerned about here at Coors Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SD

Buehler has certainly been stumbling as of late, but the three games where he has struggled in recently all came on the road and were tough match-ups -- @ SF (all-around stingy offense to face), @ CIN (quality offense, great hitter’s park), and @ COL (Coors Field gonna Coors Field). But, due to those recent down performances, we now we get him at a nice discount compared to where he has normally been for most of the season -- usually well over $10k on both sites. He’s also back home today pitching in a game where the Dodgers really need to win if they want to keep hope alive for catching the Giants (+2.0 G) for the division lead in the NL West. The Padres have been spiraling for many weeks now and Buehler has held his own in four previous starts against them this season -- 4 GS, 26.2 IP, 2.03 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 25.2% kRate, 0.90 WHIP, .206 AVG, .246 wOBA, 22.4 DKFP/40.5 FDFP per game.

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9k | vs. ARI

Let's stay out West with pitcher recommendation number two. Once again, the Giants continue their efforts to stave off the Dodgers (2.0 GB) for the lead in the NL West division, so a lack of winning motivation is not an issue for them today. Webb stumbled in his last start (@ SD) but, prior to that, he had been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball for months. Among starting pitchers with at least 100 IP this season, Webb’s superb 2.82 xFIP trails only Corbin Burnes (2.30 xFIP) for the best mark in the MLB. He’s posting an above average kRate (26+%) across both long-term and short-term sample sizes and will face a D-Backs offense that has just a .201 AVG, .270 wOBA, .147 ISO, and 65 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. Webb is back pitching at home today as well, where he averages 32.2% more fantasy points.

AJ Alexy (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | vs. LAA

Alexy is a total GPP punt play that should be avoided unless you’re someone who builds more than a handful of lineups. The first two starts to his rookie campaign were great as he pitched 11 shutout innings against the Rockies and Angels while allowing just two hits, striking out 11, and earning wins on both occasions. His previous two starts have gone the complete opposite direction: 7.0 IP, 8 H (3 HR), 10 BB, 10 ER, 4 K. Those were more difficult match-ups against the Astros and on the road at the Yankees. Clearly, he needs to get those walks under control but he does at least face the relatively tame Angels offense that he found success against on September 6th. Alexy has strong strikeout potential and the Rangers seem like they’re okay with him throwing 80+ pitches even if he gets into a bit of trouble. If he finds that same energy today that he had in hist initial two starts, then he could be a worthwhile GPP flier to take a shot on today -- <5% expected ownership.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

Colorado Rockies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

> Coors Field bump

> 6.1 implied run total (leads the slate)

> Corbin: 5.92 ERA, .362 opp wOBA, 2.42 HR/9 (vs. RHBs)

> WAS Bullpen (last 30 days): 6.20 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, 2.01 HR/9

Washington Nationals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

> Coors Field bump

> 5.4 implied run total (T-2nd on slate)

> Freeland: 4.50 ERA, .351 opp wOBA, 1.73 HR/9 (vs. RHBs)

> COL Bullpen: Actually playing better, but still relatively mediocre

Boston Red Sox vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

> 5.4 implied run total (T-2nd on slate)

> Zimmerman: First MLB start since June 13th

> Zimmerman in 2021: 59.2 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 1.81 HR/9

> BAL Bullpen (last 30 days): 7.06 ERA, 5.68 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, 15% kRate, 1.63 HR/9

> BOS: 120 wRC+ vs. LHPs (last two weeks)

> Great hitter’s park at Camden Yards

Secondary Stacks ✌️

Chicago White Sox vs. Riley O’Brien (RHP), CIN

> 5.0 implied run total

> O’Brien: 26-year-old rookie making his MLB debut

> O’Brien: Nothing impressive about his minor league stats (4.55 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 24.7% kRate, 1.31 WHIP, 1.28 HR/9) and he has struggled with a 11.2% Walk Rate

> CWS (last two weeks): .353 OBP, .337 wOBA, 115 wRC+ (all top 10 numbers in that span)

> Only thing keeping CWS out as a “top stack” -- Cincy’s bullpen has actually been extremely good over the last month (3.23 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 29.9% kRate)

San Francisco Giants vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

> 4.7 implied run total

> Weaver -- terrible road splits this season: 7.94 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 19.8% kRate, .399 wOBA, 2.78 HR/9

> Weaver: allows a lot of HRs vs. LHBs (2.25 HR/9 overall -- 3.86 HR/9 on the road)

> SF in 88 PA vs. WeaverL .333 AVG, .390 wOBA

> SF: 121 wRC+ last two weeks

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

> Ryu (Last 5 Starts): 10.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP

> Ryu: poor splits at home, bottom 10% avg exit velocity last 30 days

> NYY: 136 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 4th

> NYY’s low ownership stems from general respect Ryu commands from his long term success

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), CWS

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

1B/C Yasmani Grandal | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Riley O’Brien (RHP), CIN

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

OF JD Martinez | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B CJ Cron | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

3B/SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), LAA

1B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

1B/OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), SEA

2B/OF Max Schrock | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), CWS

3B/SS Jack Mayfield | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. AJ Alexy (RHP), TEX

2B/OF Garrett Hampson | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

Crawford just makes too much sense as an HR call today. He’s been a hit machine against righties lately -- last 20 games vs. RHPs (64 PA): .472 AVG, .584 wOBA, .377 ISO, 273 wRC+, with four home runs. I hit on Luke Weaver’s struggles on the road above in the stack section, but to reiterate, he has been responsible for a 2.78 HR/9 Rate in away games this season, including a 3.86 HR/9 Rate versus LHBs (like Crawford). If Crawford doesn’t launch one off of Weaver, he’ll still have a decent chance to go yard against the terrible bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Let’s go!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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